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westv
13 May 2020 07:33:07


The Times is talking about a house price correction of 20% to 30% or more - negative equity looms for many.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


That was a worst case scenario from Lloyd's Banking Group.

At least it will be mild!
lanky
13 May 2020 07:36:45


Could be just me but after reading The Times at brekkie I came away thinking corona virus is sailing off into the distance and it is time to learn lessons and prepare for the future. Does the UK (and other European) government privately think the worst is now past us regardless of social distancing and lockdown policies? I wonder whether there is a suspicion in some quarters that this virus will be self-limiting in its spread for some unknown reason? My understanding was that second wave is likely and it may well be even more destructive than the first. Time will tell.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I think what is going on is that the Government are trying to find a navigable channel between full lockdown and some semblence of a pickup in the economy such that the NHS is able to cope and also that we don't eventually bankrupt the economy.


With 90-95% at least of the population still vulnerable till a vaccine is available, I don't think anyone is undr any illusions as to the risk of a second wave if we take our eye off the ball too much


 

Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Justin W
13 May 2020 07:37:06


 


I don't think there will be a significant second wave, at least not during the summer. In other news, the Institute of Actuaries have also estimated the covid related excess deaths in the UK to be ~60,000 to date.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I don’t think anybody expects one during the summer. I expect cases to decline gradually before a second outbreak in November. But not on the scale of the first. Nonetheless, we should expect a death toll of more than 100k.


 

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
lanky
13 May 2020 07:43:24


 


Yes, I think that’s about right.  But perhaps the key point is that the last thing governments and central banks should be doing for the next several years is sucking demand out of their economies via higher taxes: that would just make the recovery slower, weaker and more challenging.


Someone needs to write the new manual for economics beyond a global pandemic. Where’s the modern day Keynes?


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Higher taxes and austerity all round would be the obvious choice but I think after a year of lockdown and social distancing (as it will probably turn out) this will go down extremely badly IMO


much as it pains me, I think the printing presses need to swing into action and print a few hundred billion and dish it out to Joe Public and the lenders


Interest rates and exchange rates will no doubt be severely affected but needs must

Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Maunder Minimum
13 May 2020 07:49:39



I don’t think anybody expects one during the summer. I expect cases to decline gradually before a second outbreak in November. But not on the scale of the first. Nonetheless, we should expect a death toll of more than 100k.


 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Borders controls, testing and contact tracing will be the key tools until there is a vaccine. Was talking to my Danish colleagues this morning and they are liberalising a lot locally (bars and restaurants open next week with a 1 metre distancing rule instead of 2 metres). The difficult one is the border controls - they have not decided what to do about them yet - currently borders between Denmark and Germany and Sweden (their only land borders) are closed to all but commercial and essential traffic.


P.S. Details below - measures are still in force with no understanding of when or whether they will be relaxed:


https://politi.dk/coronavirus-i-danmark/in-english/minstry-of-justice-12-03-2020


 

New world order coming.
roadrunnerajn
13 May 2020 07:52:50

LBC talking as though it is back to normal today. Be interesting not see what happens on public transport in London during the coming days.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


According to Nick F on LBC this morning, if you’re not at work today you must be a scrounger and work shy....🙄 or so it seems....

Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
Gandalf The White
13 May 2020 07:56:04


 


Higher taxes and austerity all round would be the obvious choice but I think after a year of lockdown and social distancing (as it will probably turn out) this will go down extremely badly IMO


much as it pains me, I think the printing presses need to swing into action and print a few hundred billion and dish it out to Joe Public and the lenders


Interest rates and exchange rates will no doubt be severely affected but needs must


Originally Posted by: lanky 


With pretty much every major economy facing similar issues I think the exchange rate won’t be a major issue. For there to be downward pressure we need to be doing relatively worse than others.


Having said that, if we insist on leaving the EU in 7-8 months from now with the pandemic still taking its toll and no agreements with EU or US we will be asking for trouble.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


speckledjim
13 May 2020 07:56:25
My wife back from her morning run tells me the roads are much busier this morning with many off to work
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Maunder Minimum
13 May 2020 08:00:30

My wife back from her morning run tells me the roads are much busier this morning with many off to work

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


A flexible return to work makes perfect sense - those with small children at home to look after won't be able to go to work of course.


Plus, all hospitality is closed down for the foreseeable.

New world order coming.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
13 May 2020 08:04:43


Coronavirus: How England's golf courses, tennis clubs and fisheries are preparing for return of sport


Traffic volumes will be up I guess as a number of sports venues re-open.....


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/england/52632639


For the lucky ones who managed to secure early tee times, the weather at Perranporth golf course looks pretty good


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gbuq6tz2f#?nearestTo=Perranporth%20(Cornwall)&date=2020-05-13


Originally Posted by: llamedos 

Yes, my brother in law’s a green keeper at Worksop golf club and is preparing for the deluge. Their club has been inundated with calls from members booking tee times!  My son has gone fishing this morning too!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
springsunshine
13 May 2020 08:05:16


 


Higher taxes and austerity all round would be the obvious choice but I think after a year of lockdown and social distancing (as it will probably turn out) this will go down extremely badly IMO


much as it pains me, I think the printing presses need to swing into action and print a few hundred billion and dish it out to Joe Public and the lenders


Interest rates and exchange rates will no doubt be severely affected but needs must


Originally Posted by: lanky 


 


Higher taxes and more austerity in a deflationary economy,which is where we are heading for a while, will just kill the economy even more.The proplem with printing money and giving it to joe public will lead to massive inflation,even worse! I think postponing or even cancelling H2S and scrapping foreign aid would be a good starting point.Income tax may go up across the board by say 1p or 2p in the pound as well as an increase in corporation tax.Means testing of the state pension would be a good one to look at as well as closing a lot of the tax loopholes the rich and large companies use to avoid tax.The lowest paid and the poorest should be protected from further erosion of their incomes and although more cuts to public services will be necessary some vital services eg NHS should be ringfenced.

springsunshine
13 May 2020 08:07:50


The Times is talking about a house price correction of 20% to 30% or more - negative equity looms for many.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


A house price correction of that range would be a good thing!

Gandalf The White
13 May 2020 08:09:18


 


 


Higher taxes and more austerity in a deflationary economy,which is where we are heading for a while, will just kill the economy even more.The proplem with printing money and giving it to joe public will lead to massive inflation,even worse! I think postponing or even cancelling H2S and scrapping foreign aid would be a good starting point.Income tax may go up across the board by say 1p or 2p in the pound as well as an increase in corporation tax.Means testing of the state pension would be a good one to look at as well as closing a lot of the tax loopholes the rich and large companies use to avoid tax.The lowest paid and the poorest should be protected from further erosion of their incomes and although more cuts to public services will be necessary some vital services eg NHS should be ringfenced.


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


But, as I said earlier (and Justin and I have said several times now) printing money may not be inflationary precisely because of the deflationary pressures. 


Printing money to replace missing buying power shouldn’t have the same effect as just creating a burst of demand when supply is largely unable to respond.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
13 May 2020 08:14:08


 


I don't think there will be a significant second wave, at least not during the summer. In other news, the Institute of Actuaries have also estimated the covid related excess deaths in the UK to be ~60,000 to date.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Do you think that because a) the social distancing measure b) the virus has run its course?

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
bledur
13 May 2020 08:14:33


Could be just me but after reading The Times at brekkie I came away thinking corona virus is sailing off into the distance and it is time to learn lessons and prepare for the future. Does the UK (and other European) government privately think the worst is now past us regardless of social distancing and lockdown policies? I wonder whether there is a suspicion in some quarters that this virus will be self-limiting in its spread for some unknown reason? My understanding was that second wave is likely and it may well be even more destructive than the first. Time will tell.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 Whether by incompetence or design i think countries which have had a bad first wave of Covid -19 are probably on their way to Herd Immunity and a second wave will be far less devestating. Countries which have basically shut the virus out , till a vaccine arrives remain naive and very at risk.I was listening about Cyprus this morning and they have sone very well in terms of cases but i do not see how they progress as their main business is Tourism.

The Beast from the East
13 May 2020 08:16:03


Could be just me but after reading The Times at brekkie I came away thinking corona virus is sailing off into the distance and it is time to learn lessons and prepare for the future. Does the UK (and other European) government privately think the worst is now past us regardless of social distancing and lockdown policies? I wonder whether there is a suspicion in some quarters that this virus will be self-limiting in its spread for some unknown reason? My understanding was that second wave is likely and it may well be even more destructive than the first. Time will tell.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Its all relative. Because of increased awareness, hygiene, social distancing etc, "the second wave" will be mitigated, health services will not be overwhelmed. We will just have a steady stream of corpses, the only difference being, you can have a proper funeral if Grandad croaks in the Autumn


In the US yesterday deaths rose by 2000 in one day and new cases have plateaued, yet no one batted an eyelid. We have become desensitised to death now.


In this country we will probably see a daily death rate of 100 -200 all summer and it wont even make the news


Can you imagine a terrorist attack happening every day killing that many people!


 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
13 May 2020 08:19:02


 


 Whether by incompetence or design i think countries which have had a bad first wave of Covid -19 are probably on their way to Herd Immunity and a second wave will be far less devestating. Countries which have basically shut the virus out , till a vaccine arrives remain naive and very at risk.I was listening about Cyprus this morning and they have sone very well in terms of cases but i do not see how they progress as their main business is Tourism.


Originally Posted by: bledur 


I doubt it


Even in America, Fauci says only 20% of New Yorkers have been exposed, and less than 5% in most other States. We must have similar numbers. There are still plenty of potential hosts for the virus


 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
John p
13 May 2020 08:26:22


 


Do you think that because a) the social distancing measure b) the virus has run its course?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I think both of those reasons are flawed. 


I don’t think the epidemic in care homes will stop at all unless drastic changes are made. More likely so many get infected and/or die until they achieve their own pseudo herd immunity. 
In the wider community, why wouldn’t we have a second wave is the better question. I think a second peak is likely in London by late June and rest of UK by mid July.  And then we’re back to square one, all because we didn’t wait until contact tracing was in place. 

Camberley, Surrey
Phil G
13 May 2020 08:29:53


 


 Whether by incompetence or design i think countries which have had a bad first wave of Covid -19 are probably on their way to Herd Immunity and a second wave will be far less devestating. Countries which have basically shut the virus out , till a vaccine arrives remain naive and very at risk.I was listening about Cyprus this morning and they have sone very well in terms of cases but i do not see how they progress as their main business is Tourism.


Originally Posted by: bledur 


I'd agree with most of this where now as things have gone on for most the 2m rule is engrained now. There will be more use of masks which will stop some infection also. There will still be pockets of outbreaks, and infection for those who 'just don't get it', but I feel we are more geared up as long as we 'stay alert' and keep to the rules. Saying that, you do feel this thing will be on a slow burner picking off people if there is no vaccine. No spikes but no end to it, we are all truly going to have to adapt as man has done throughout history.


We have to.

Rob K
13 May 2020 08:32:46
The new rules seem very much open to interpretation. You are allowed to "meet" one other person who is not in your household, as long as you stay 2 metres apart.

So 2 metres is the minimum threshold for "meeting" someone, but what is the maximum distance? Most of my wife's friends have children, so if they go out they will be with their kids. Can one person leave their family group and go and meet one person from the other group in the middle, 2 metres apart, while the others stay further apart? If so, how far do they have to be apart not to be classed as "meeting"? After all, both family groups are permitted to be out in the park, while staying 2 metres apart from other people.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Maunder Minimum
13 May 2020 08:36:03


 


I'd agree with most of this where now as things have gone on for most the 2m rule is engrained now. There will be more use of masks which will stop some infection also. There will still be pockets of outbreaks, and infection for those who 'just don't get it', but I feel we are more geared up as long as we 'stay alert' and keep to the rules. Saying that, you do feel this thing will be on a slow burner picking off people if there is no vaccine. No spikes but no end to it, we are all truly going to have to adapt as man has done throughout history.


We have to.


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Bear in mind that for most people, the virus is pretty mild or even asymptomatic.


Those at most risk are the groups we already know about. Nothing which can be done about the elderly, except that they must take whatever precautions they can. Those in the at risk group because they have pre-existing conditions, will have to be shielded and there needs to be a massive public information campaign about healthy living and having a normal BMI.


There will always be some people who suffer badly or die, who are not old, who don't have pre-existing conditions and who are apparently healthy - the medics need to examine these patients to see why they suffer from the virus so much worse than the majority of young and apparently healthy people. Other than that, people should go about their normal business, but with enhanced awareness and with as much social distancing as is practical.


 

New world order coming.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
13 May 2020 08:46:06


The Times is talking about a house price correction of 20% to 30% or more - negative equity looms for many.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

But good news for first time buyers!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
13 May 2020 08:53:12


I think what is going on is that the Government are trying to find a navigable channel between full lockdown and some semblence of a pickup in the economy such that the NHS is able to cope and also that we don't eventually bankrupt the economy.


With 90-95% at least of the population still vulnerable till a vaccine is available, I don't think anyone is undr any illusions as to the risk of a second wave if we take our eye off the ball too much


Originally Posted by: lanky 

I think you’re absolutely right.  It’s about finding a balanced way through and making cautious progress.  Personally I think the virus will be self limiting but I’m no virologist, so it’s just wishful thinking. However, I do still think taking our eye off the ball is too big a risk.  We’ve come too far to throw it all away on a whim!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
13 May 2020 09:07:41


But good news for first time buyers!  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Not if they have been made redundant or think they may about to be. 

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
xioni2
13 May 2020 09:13:24


 Do you think that because a) the social distancing measure b) the virus has run its course?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I don't think the virus has run it course at all, it's likely that more than 90% of us are still susceptible to it. I think social distancing, the potential test-trace-isolate strategy, better personal hygiene and summer weather are all factors which make a big second surge unlikely IMO. If the TTI strategy is done correctly, we might even avoid smaller increases to the number of new infections and deaths.

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