theweatheroutlook

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Rob K
13 May 2020 09:13:58


I think you’re absolutely right.  It’s about finding a balanced way through and making cautious progress.  Personally I think the virus will be self limiting but I’m no virologist, so it’s just wishful thinking. However, I do still think taking our eye off the ball is too big a risk.  We’ve come too far to throw it all away on a whim!


Originally Posted by: Caz 


It just shows how lucky and cosseted we are in today's world. For 99.9%+ of human history, plague and pandemic were a fact of life and life had to continue as usual. We are some of the only humans ever to have existed who have taken it for granted that we and our families are unlikely to be carried off by infectious diseases.


Sadly I think this epidemic might prove to mark the end of that golden age. Between overcrowding and poor hygiene in many parts of the world and increasing antibiotic resistance, I think infectious viruses and bacteria will start to regain the upper hand over modern medicine in the decades to come.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
13 May 2020 09:19:08

 


I don't think the virus has run it course at all, it's likely that more than 90% of us are still susceptible to it. I think social distancing, the potential test-trace-isolate strategy, better personal hygiene and summer weather are all factors which make a big second surge unlikely IMO. If the TTI strategy is done correctly, we might even avoid smaller increases to the number of new infections and deaths.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 That seems to be a widely held view at the moment. As a pessimist I'm not convinced. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
xioni2
13 May 2020 09:21:08


  Whether by incompetence or design i think countries which have had a bad first wave of Covid -19 are probably on their way to Herd Immunity and a second wave will be far less devestating. Countries which have basically shut the virus out , till a vaccine arrives remain naive and very at risk.I was listening about Cyprus this morning and they have sone very well in terms of cases but i do not see how they progress as their main business is Tourism.


Originally Posted by: bledur 


I don't quite get this argument, if only 5-10% of the population has been infected here vs say only 1% in Cyprus, I don't see how this makes a material difference with regard to a significant second wave. Also countries that rely on tourism would be fcked anyway as they depend on what is happening in origin countries. It would be be even worse for countries like Cyprus, Greece etc. to have a bad health outcome and then have no tourism at all as well. At least now they can try and have tourists from other 'safe' countries.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
13 May 2020 09:22:00


 Whether by incompetence or design i think countries which have had a bad first wave of Covid -19 are probably on their way to Herd Immunity and a second wave will be far less devestating. Countries which have basically shut the virus out , till a vaccine arrives remain naive and very at risk.I was listening about Cyprus this morning and they have sone very well in terms of cases but i do not see how they progress as their main business is Tourism.


Originally Posted by: bledur 

I think there’s some logic in that and it could be a case of nature wiping out the weakest.  


We’ve had a nationwide wave but not everyone has had it or been hospitalised by it.  I know of two households where one person has suffered badly, yet no one else in that household has.  One person died from it in hospital yet none of his household had symptoms.  He was a pub landlord as well, yet we didn’t get a spike in cases.  He did have underlying health problems. 


It seems to suggest that, although I wouldn’t call it herd immunity, I’d say some are less susceptible and simply won’t get it or won’t suffer from it.  As we’ve been in lockdown we’ve had less exposure to it, so that will have shielded some but I think a good number of those who would have suffered, already have.  Take care homes for example. 


This makes me think a second wave, while still deadly for some, would see fewer cases in general.  Just my musings of course but it’s a possibility, amongst many!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Rob K
13 May 2020 09:23:25
Regarding the number of "excess deaths" I imagine that would vary a lot depending on how you measure it. The overall death rate as I understand it was running at about double the long term average in April, but I would expect that if/when the virus is controlled we could well see a dip in the death rate below the LTA, because, in rather crude terms, the virus took out many of the people who would have died later in the year.

It's a bit of a moot point talking about "excess deaths" because of course in the long run we are all dead! And of course this is no comfort to anyone who has lost valuable time with elderly relatives. Just me pondering the nature of statistics and what they mean...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
13 May 2020 09:27:14



It's a bit of a moot point talking about "excess deaths" because of course in the long run we are all dead! And of course this is no comfort to anyone who has lost valuable time with elderly relatives. Just me pondering the nature of statistics and what they mean...


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Absolutely. Early on I mused about the possibility of calculating aggregate lost years caused by this virus. For example, if 3 people lose 10 years and 2 people lose 5 years the aggregate would be 40 years.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Retron
13 May 2020 09:27:40


Not if they have been made redundant or think they may about to be. 


Originally Posted by: RobN 


If that's the case then it wouldn't matter either way.


For those who see a house as a home, it'd be good news. Less so if you're a borrow-to-let landlord (as opposed to a cash-rich buy-to-let landlord).


 

Leysdown, north Kent
fairweather
13 May 2020 09:33:13


 


 Whether by incompetence or design i think countries which have had a bad first wave of Covid -19 are probably on their way to Herd Immunity and a second wave will be far less devestating. Countries which have basically shut the virus out , till a vaccine arrives remain naive and very at risk.I was listening about Cyprus this morning and they have sone very well in terms of cases but i do not see how they progress as their main business is Tourism.


Originally Posted by: bledur 


You're not going to get herd immunity from just 10% of the population with antibodies. That is just wishful thinking.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
xioni2
13 May 2020 09:33:16

Regarding the number of "excess deaths" I imagine that would vary a lot depending on how you measure it. The overall death rate as I understand it was running at about double the long term average in April, but I would expect that if/when the virus is controlled we could well see a dip in the death rate below the LTA, because, in rather crude terms, the virus took out many of the people who would have died later in the year.

It's a bit of a moot point talking about "excess deaths" because of course in the long run we are all dead! And of course this is no comfort to anyone who has lost valuable time with elderly relatives. Just me pondering the nature of statistics and what they mean...

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Not quite, excess mortality is considered the gold standard statistic when it comes to health crises or natural disasters etc. It measures deaths caused both directly and indirectly and it allows for international comparisons, with the caveat that it takes several months before reliable data is widely available. 


 

Retron
13 May 2020 09:33:19

Well, I've taken the blood sample (needed two needles as the first finger stopped bleeding) and sent it off to the lab via Special Delivery.


The bad news is that it wasn't a 5ml tube, it was a 10ml one... and you had to fill it up. Messy, as I've not done anything like it before, but not especially painful - two small pricks and a slight throbbing afterwards.


Meanwhile the village - Leysdown - was the busiest it's been in weeks, with queues outside the bakery and general stores. The post office was fine, though, and after seeing the alarm on the postmistress' face I mentioned it was an antibody test, not a "have I got it now" test. (Having a big purple "covid-19 test" label on the enevelope wasn't a great idea, unless it's meant to ensure it speeds through the system faster).


Assuming it's a viable sample, I should have the results on Thursday. I'll post them here when I get them.

Leysdown, north Kent
fairweather
13 May 2020 09:36:02


 


Its all relative. Because of increased awareness, hygiene, social distancing etc, "the second wave" will be mitigated, health services will not be overwhelmed. We will just have a steady stream of corpses, the only difference being, you can have a proper funeral if Grandad croaks in the Autumn


In the US yesterday deaths rose by 2000 in one day and new cases have plateaued, yet no one batted an eyelid. We have become desensitised to death now.


In this country we will probably see a daily death rate of 100 -200 all summer and it wont even make the news


Can you imagine a terrorist attack happening every day killing that many people!


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I do think this is one of the most likely scenarios, until there is a vaccine or eventual herd immunity.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Bugglesgate
13 May 2020 09:36:27


 


If that's the case then it wouldn't matter either way.


For those who see a house as a home, it'd be good news. Less so if you're a borrow-to-let landlord (as opposed to a cash-rich buy-to-let landlord).


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Potentially good news for me. 


The mortgage on my gaff was paid off years ago and I don't give  monkeys about  how much its worth as it's a not a  realisable  asset (for me, at any rate because I need to live somewhere).  However, I would quite like to move to somewhere with some more land around it but the huge property prices around here  also meant huge ladder rung spaces such that I would have  to take a massive mortgage out to facilitate a modest up market shift (not worth it !)   ...... and a meaningful shift  was out of my league at 57 !


 


 


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
xioni2
13 May 2020 09:36:27


I think there’s some logic in that and it could be a case of nature wiping out the weakest.  


We’ve had a nationwide wave but not everyone has had it or been hospitalised by it.  I know of two households where one person has suffered badly, yet no one else in that household has.  One person died from it in hospital yet none of his household had symptoms.  He was a pub landlord as well, yet we didn’t get a spike in cases.  He did have underlying health problems. 


It seems to suggest that, although I wouldn’t call it herd immunity, I’d say some are less susceptible and simply won’t get it or won’t suffer from it.  As we’ve been in lockdown we’ve had less exposure to it, so that will have shielded some but I think a good number of those who would have suffered, already have.  Take care homes for example. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


 


Or perhaps the virus isn't as contagious as originally thought and even simple measures such as moderate social distancing and personal hygiene can lower the R value significantly.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
13 May 2020 09:37:35

Regarding the number of "excess deaths" I imagine that would vary a lot depending on how you measure it. The overall death rate as I understand it was running at about double the long term average in April, but I would expect that if/when the virus is controlled we could well see a dip in the death rate below the LTA, because, in rather crude terms, the virus took out many of the people who would have died later in the year.

It's a bit of a moot point talking about "excess deaths" because of course in the long run we are all dead! And of course this is no comfort to anyone who has lost valuable time with elderly relatives. Just me pondering the nature of statistics and what they mean...

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

That’s a good point and pretty much in line with my own musings. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
fairweather
13 May 2020 09:41:45


 


I don't think the virus has run it course at all, it's likely that more than 90% of us are still susceptible to it. I think social distancing, the potential test-trace-isolate strategy, better personal hygiene and summer weather are all factors which make a big second surge unlikely IMO. If the TTI strategy is done correctly, we might even avoid smaller increases to the number of new infections and deaths.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Has summer weather been shown to be a factor now? I thought it was considered unlikely to have a significant effect.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
13 May 2020 09:48:33


 Or perhaps the virus isn't as contagious as originally thought and even simple measures such as moderate social distancing and personal hygiene can lower the R value significantly.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 

That’s also a possibility.  Although it has spread very quickly, which suggests it is either very contagious, or it’s been around much longer than we think.  More musings needed!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
13 May 2020 09:51:40


Yes, my brother in law’s a green keeper at Worksop golf club and is preparing for the deluge. Their club has been inundated with calls from members booking tee times!  My son has gone fishing this morning too!  


Originally Posted by: Caz 

Just had a photo from our son, showing off his first catch since before lockdown!   

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
fairweather
13 May 2020 09:51:54


 


Not at all at the moment, is the answer! I'm missing the wolves terribly but as only two volunteers at a time are allowed for one day a weekend... it'll be a long time before I'm back there.


How will we be paying for all this? The Telegraph has a couple of articles this morning based on some leaks.


"could require measures including an increase in income tax, the end of the triple lock on state pension increases and a two-year public sector pay freeze."


"The document advises Mr Sunak that it is now likely to become necessary to break at least one of the Conservatives' key manifesto pledges not to increase taxes or scrap the triple lock on state pension rises.


It states: "To fill a gap this size [in the public finances] through tax revenue risers would be very challenging without breaking the tax lock. To raise fiscally significant amounts, we would either have to increase rates/thresholds in one of the broad-based taxes (IT, NICS, VAT, CT) or reform one of the biggest tax reliefs (eg pensions tax)."


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/12/exclusive-treasury-blueprint-raise-taxes-freeze-wages-pay-300bn/


How would I do it? Well, assuming that everything's fair game I would:


Scrap HS2


Scrap higher-rate pension tax relief - 20% for all


Increase CGT to 20% and decrease the allowance to £10,000


Increase dividend tax to 20% and remove the allowance entirely


Remove the £1000 interest allowance


Decrease ISA limits to £15000 a year in total


Remove the housing allowance from IHT ot reduce IHT allowances to £250,000 per person.


If more were needed...


Scrap the pensions triple lock


Decrease the higher tax thresholds - by £5000 for the 40% rate and £10000 for the 45% rate


Institute a 1% public sector pay rise limit for 2 years, or inflation (whichever is higher), for those earning less than £40,000. 0% rise above that.


Reduce the number of MPs to say 500.


These measures would affect the wealthy more than the poor, but I've a feeling whatever we end up with won't actually do that!


Originally Posted by: Retron 


I agree with most of this. I would completely scrap cash ISAs. With the current rules on tax free savings interest most "normal" people don't pay tax on savings interest anyway. Interest rates are lower than on ISAs than the best savings accounts anyway these days. They are outdated and might as well be scrapped - it will only affect high rate tax payers with very large savings and they will be allright anyway.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Bugglesgate
13 May 2020 09:52:31


That’s also a possibility.  Although it has spread very quickly, which suggests it is either very contagious, or it’s been around much longer than we think.  More musings needed!  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


 


The slow rate of decline despite lock down  would suggest that  it is fairly contagious.  ISTR that early on estimates of R0 without  any measures in place  was about 2,   but has been  revised upwards to in excess of 5  - which is way above flu.


 


Edit


https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#meaning


 


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
xioni2
13 May 2020 09:52:59


 Has summer weather been shown to be a factor now? I thought it was considered unlikely to have a significant effect.


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


I don't know actually, my guess is that summer weather gets people out of confined spaces and that should have some impact.

Gooner
13 May 2020 09:54:20


 


I don't think there will be a significant second wave, at least not during the summer. In other news, the Institute of Actuaries have also estimated the covid related excess deaths in the UK to be ~60,000 to date.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Genuine question - why wouldn't you expect a second wave during the Summer, as temperatures haven't been proven as a deterrent 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


xioni2
13 May 2020 09:58:18


 Genuine question - why wouldn't you expect a second wave during the Summer, as temperatures haven't been proven as a deterrent 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


This is just guessing on my side, in countries like ours people tend to spend much more time outdoors in the summer compared to winter and it's easier to maintain social distancing and do 'safer' activities outside, compared to staying indoors and having friends over etc. (I am talking after the lockdown ends obviously). I obviously don't know.


 

fairweather
13 May 2020 09:59:22

I hope when the chancellor decides how we are going to pay for this that he doesn't do a public sector pay freeze across the board. He and the public need to remember that standing on the door stop clapping was for not just for doctors and nurses but for all the front line line NHS workers, most of whom are amongst one of the lowest paid sectors in the Country. I'd hate to see them treated badly when this is over else we have learned nothing as a Nation.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Bugglesgate
13 May 2020 10:00:06


 


I don't know actually, my guess is that summer weather gets people out of confined spaces and that should have some impact.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 


I suspect this is right.  I can't think that summer  weather will have much of an impact in buildings - especially those  that are kept ambient with air con.


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
xioni2
13 May 2020 10:04:55

Interesting analysis  of GPS data from UCL’s Consumer Data Research Centre. This plot shows week-on-week changes on mobility. Mobility decreased significantly even before the lockdown was announced on 23 March and has increased again recently, before the govt relaxed some measures.


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