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The Beast from the East
15 May 2020 15:23:05

BREAKING: Sage confirm that the R rate has been rising all week and is at 1

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


 the flag shaggers coming out last Friday triggered  the end of lockdown in England. 


Its a free for all out there now.


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Devonian
15 May 2020 15:23:19


 


For some reason, this whole debate is suddenly becoming politicised, both here and in the USA. More understandable in the USA I would have thought, given the polarisation of politics over there, but here is an interesting poll published in The Times today:


"At the same time a partisan gulf is widening on how to balance the risks of spreading coronavirus with the need to resuscitate the economy. A Politico/Morning Consult survey this week found that 72 per cent of Democrats were more worried about public health than the economy. Fifty-five per cent of Republicans took the opposite view."


Strange, since debating the costs/benefits of lockdown should be possible without dividing along partisan lines. Any analysis should be open to logical debate without it becoming a left/right issue.


 

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Fell free to tell us what you think the costs and benefits of lock down was (is). I've made my views clear.

The Beast from the East
15 May 2020 15:27:01


 


It shows that intelligent and analytical people like you can't be sure if they've had it or not. I have long suspected that most who say they "had it in January or February" are wrong and in many cases guilty of wishful thinking.  Your result reinforces my belief. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Indeed. The fat, teacher hating arsehole Nick Ferrari is also convinced that he already had it. I suspect he hasn't either. If he does get it, he will end up like Boris given his BMI


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
fairweather
15 May 2020 15:28:13


 


 the flag shaggers coming out last Friday triggered  the end of lockdown in England. 


Its a free for all out there now.


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I thought that at first but Zoe Symptom tracker been showing that for three days now - not enough time for the "flag shaggers" to get the symptoms.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
llamedos
15 May 2020 15:28:34


 


 the flag shaggers coming out last Friday triggered  the end of lockdown in England. 


Its a free for all out there now.


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

But that wouldn't be manifested in a rise in the R rate so quickly would it?


PS! Out of interest exactly how do you "shag a flag"


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Hippydave
15 May 2020 15:29:37


 


Me? I admit there are people I dislike but I generally like people. Actually I think you're talking about yourself 


As I've said, sometimes you have to do what is right. Lock down was right - the best bad option. And if the virus hasn't weakened I fear lock down  will be back (if in some other form given what we've learnt about who is most vulnerable). And if lockdown isn't back then terrific news for the health of all of us! I then 'look forward' to the return (and more so) of particulate pollution, smog and ever faster planetary degradation. Any good news? I for one will be using the bike to get to work more


Beware of calling people liberal - I prefer to call myself 'Not led by far right rubbish read in The Mail and Spiked' but I admit that's not exactly a catchy moniker


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


I was talking about me (in the third person, a bad sign)


The lack of pollution has been a massive plus out of a s**t situation - it's been very pleasant to ride around lately, the odd lunatic driving at excessive speed aside. That's sadly crumbling away now and the cynic in me suspects that for all the comments in the media about better air quality we'll stumble back to where we were and ignore the consequences.


I don't think I called you liberal, just that I suspect me and my liberal views are rather closer to your views than my views are to MMs A point he demonstrated very well when he linked to something from the Daily Mail.


Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Bugglesgate
15 May 2020 15:31:17


But that wouldn't be manifested in a rise in the R rate so quickly would it?


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


 


 


... no, we have got the  ramp in R   due to the post VE Day  slackening off   to look forward to.  I reckon  what we are seeing now is due to the "fraying" of the "Stay at Home" regime.


This really does fall into the "no Sh*t Sherlock" category


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
The Beast from the East
15 May 2020 15:32:13


But that wouldn't be manifested in a rise in the R rate so quickly would it?


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


I don't know, but R is a guesstimate based on not just recorded tests, but observations of behaviour and human contacts. Clearly SAGE have seen people mixing, and using public transport much more and taken that into account


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Heavy Weather 2013
15 May 2020 15:32:58
Wasn’t the weekend before VE also warm. If I remember correctly the lockdown was really starting to fray.

The R1 will certainly be up this week. I’ve just done a run, it is like typical Friday evening round here. Albeit pubs closed
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
speckledjim
15 May 2020 15:33:50
So the actual words from Sage is that the R number is between 0.7 and 1.0.
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
The Beast from the East
15 May 2020 15:35:48


PS! Out of interest exactly how do you "shag a flag"


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


I could a post a video from one of my regular "pleasure" sites, if Brian would allow it?


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Heavy Weather 2013
15 May 2020 15:36:01

Coronavirus: Funding for homeless scheme will not be extended


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52637283


The government will not extend funding to help rough sleepers in England stay off the streets amid the coronavirus pandemic, it has confirmed.


Councils were given £3.2m in March to provide emergency shelter for homeless people, with many housed in hotels.


leaked report seen by the Manchester Evening News revealed the government has "drawn a line'" under the scheme.


___


It seems more and more stories like this are trickling out. Rather than learning and doing things differently, we revert to type.


It seems many in the Tory party are now well and truly bored of Lockdown. I cant see the homeless socially distance.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Heavy Weather 2013
15 May 2020 15:37:18

So the actual words from Sage is that the R number is between 0.7 and 1.0.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Yes, which is higher than last week. It has risen.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
llamedos
15 May 2020 15:38:49


 


I don't know, but R is a guesstimate based on not just recorded tests, but observations of behaviour and human contacts. Clearly SAGE have seen people mixing, and using public transport much more and taken that into account


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

The R rate:


"This is calculated on a two-step process.


Firstly, information about deaths is used with information about the progression of Covid-19 to estimate the number of infectious people.


Secondly, the day-by-day changes in the numbers of infectious people are used to estimate R."


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
The Beast from the East
15 May 2020 15:38:52

So the actual words from Sage is that the R number is between 0.7 and 1.0.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Yes, though they tend to be conservative so as not to upset Cummings, so it probably is close to 1


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
speckledjim
15 May 2020 15:39:37


 


Yes, which is higher than last week. It has risen.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


It has but you said it was at 1.....


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
The Beast from the East
15 May 2020 15:42:05


Coronavirus: Funding for homeless scheme will not be extended


 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Shocking


I'm sure Maunder will be along soon to explain why its necessary


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Heavy Weather 2013
15 May 2020 15:45:19


 


It has but you said it was at 1.....


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


OK, but it said on the news banner between 0.7 and 1. So it could be 1, 0.9, 0.8 or 0.7. So I am not wrong either.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
fairweather
15 May 2020 15:46:20


 


Shocking


I'm sure Maunder will be along soon to explain why its necessary


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Well let's face it - they don't need it as much as all those furloughed workers with houses do they?


S.Essex, 42m ASL
doctormog
15 May 2020 15:49:48


 


I could a post a video from one of my regular "pleasure" sites, if Brian would allow it?


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I suspect it would be flagged as inappropriate. 


Chidog
15 May 2020 15:58:06


 


OK, but it said on the news banner between 0.7 and 1. So it could be 1, 0.9, 0.8 or 0.7. So I am not wrong either.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


It is wrong to say that it is definitively at 1.0 though, isn't it? That was not what was reported. The difference between 0.7 and 1 is massive as well, within 2 generations of spread 100 infectious people at R=1 will have infected 200 more, whereas 100 infectious people at R=0.7 will only have infected 119 more, and the difference between the two figures will continue to increase more and more quickly...

SJV
15 May 2020 15:58:45

BREAKING: Sage confirm that the R rate has been rising all week and is at 1

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


and that doesn't yet include recent relaxes to the lockdown since Sunday so expect it to keep rising.

llamedos
15 May 2020 16:00:39


 


I suspect it would be flagged as inappropriate. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Where's JB when you need him....this could run and run 


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Devonian
15 May 2020 16:01:04


I'm not sure I agree with your assumption. I think the evidence is Covid19 kills 1% of those it infects (with the caveat we now know better who the 1% are). Without a lockdown I think there would be up to 1% death (so that's 700k or so in the UK) and within a month or two.


 


You've not answered my question though have you? You were asking MM to place a value on a life. I'm asking you to confirm why a covid life saved is worth more than another life lost. We know that will be happening and is - see the paper headlines about the cancer patient today. You're saying it's dangerous to pick who to save but lockdown is doing that on a grand scale.


 


Your point about we know who it affects now (which we did at the time from experience abroad anyway) is interesting. So is the harm of locking down for all age groups better than locking down just the vulnerable groups?

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 



Yes I was and am asking MM to put a value on life. I ask because (revealingly?) he wont do that, and because it is indeed a very, very, very  difficult question. My answer is lockdown was better than the alternatives and that I feel deeply uncomfortable when people are told they have to take the risk of getting this virus.


I'm 62, I work in a school - sometimes with student, but mostly outdoors. What risk should I be made to take? That is the question I ask MM but in a different form. I guess my risk is, I dunno, if I catch it, 1-3% of dying, if people start spreading it my risk of catching it will rise from close to negligible now to ...I don't know! But, MM wants us to go back to work - what risk of losing my life does he think I should take? 2%, 5%, 10%, 25%? I doubt he'll answer. What risk would he take (he wont say).


I'll also say I get the argument I'm 'getting paid to do nothing' (though most people is school are working to some extent - I will be tomorrow if in isolation). Fwiw, I've been careful enough that I, perhaps, could manage without work but I also enjoy my job and wouldn't like to lose it. It's any coercion I don't like and it's (that damn question again) how much risk is it fair to ask people to take???????


Fwiw I don't think the lockdown is causing death so much as people's fear of going to the hospital and catching C19 is.

Gavin D
15 May 2020 16:04:41
10,024 in hospital down from 11,041 yesterday and down 13% from last Friday

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