I think the UK climate by default breaks down after August bank holiday

By that reckoning it should be good weather already in Scotland and NI until the 11th of August when the school holidays end (in Scotland). 

It is definitely an improving picture though (from the coming weekend).

Contrary to yesterday, the 10-day summary has abandoned the idea of substantial rain for the S (and near continent) in week 2; now looking dry and definitely warmer ithen. 

Jetstream continuing across the UK frm W or NW for this week (to Fri 10th) then breaking up into loops and fragments mostly away from the UK before a major loop forms a cut-off low in the SW approaches Sun 19th continuing to affect the S in the following few days.

GFS - once the current LP (ex-Edouard) is out of the way on Fri 10th, HP settles over or close to the UK until Sun 19th when LP, taking its cue from the jetstream forms off SW Ireland and slowly trundles across the S coast to Thu 23rd

GEFS - For England and Wales, average temps with a little rain for the next 2 or 3 days (though MetO charts suggest much more rain in a belt starting near the Mersey and working down to the Thames) then dry and cool working back to normal or a little above around Wed 15th and staying there. Also from Wed 15th, some irregular but large quantities of rain in some runs. (Plymouth very dry but Liverpool has some spectacular totals)

Scotland similar though cool rather than average at first. 

ECM - repeats GFS though some suggestion that LP to the SW may develop sooner i.e. around Fri 17th

That's rather a disappointment for my back yard. We still need loads more rain here. (See my EOM report in the June Precipitation thread.)

That is a very wise observation, that we all need to take note of.

              (Actually, shouldn't that be 'an ursine creature'?)

Oh, that's a shame.  With reference to the earlier post on this name, I had already thought of several jokes, one of which was 'Parton me, did you say its name was Dolly?'

OK, I'll get my coat.  I just thought I'd make up for being away for a couple of weeks....

The huge High Pressure in the Atlantic is really struggling to get properly going, being constantly squeezed by those pesky lows N.Atlantic.

GFS 06z does look promising and the 12z just struggling a wee bit. I do notice that by next Tuesday the big High over the North Pole weakens away, maybe helping the situation to our High getting better established? I cannot see any large High Pressure over NW Russia which I believe also has an effect with our weather. A link up of the Azores H with the Scandi H making a huge un-moveable High pressure system over us would be great for the rest of the summer months.

So far this is the worst start to July since 2012 and 2007 in my parts. Although currently it more reminds me of July 2007, especially the low heavy grey clouds and the darkness associated. Still keeping touching lots of wood for the Summer to kick off properly.

Given the dry-looking medium range outlook, I think it is a case of hoping that forecast 20-25 mm of rain for Kent tomorrow and into Thurs AM does come off in order to at least bring some green back to my still dead-as-a-doornail lawn. 

Yup, really need to bank the promised rain down here. The story so far this summer is that the forecast totals fail to verify. I had to get the hosepipe out yet again yesterday because the plants were wilting - despite the ‘epic’ unsettled spell. 

Likewise, only the opposite way. 

Kev B will have totals for this area, but this month must be running around twice average. Think it's rained every day, with some huge downpours and rain solid throughout today until around 8pm.

The dreaded NW/SE split has been even more pronounced than normal. 

Also I think there is the south east and the south east. Here the grass is looking very green and the weather has been poor in recent weeks. 

The South East east of the Chiltern Hills is very different to the SE west (or on top) of the Chilterns. Several times I have watched my promised rain get stuck over the Chilterns and fizzle out before it reaches me.

The rain is desperately needed Ian.  I am hoping for a complete soaking from the quasi-stationary wiggling front.

I’m more central southern England and it has been pretty dry here too. Even though it rained on Sunday morning, by the afternoon the tomato plants were wilting again. The soil is still very dusty. 

Only 9mm here so far in July after 36mm in June and 1mm in May. 

It certainly isn't green round here, Brian.  Most of the showery stuff has passed us by.

But with the Test match this week it was bound to become unsettled.....

I won't repeat a description of how dry it has been here (for which, see my EOM report in the June Precip. thread) but last night my wife told me that she had seen on TV a map showing rainfall across the country for June which really did bring out how dry the weather had been in the London area and S and E of London.  She couldn't remember if the colours were blue for over average and brown for under average, which (IIRC) would have matched the MetO maps of monthly rainfall.   I'm not sure where to start looking for this map, if it has been published on the internet yet, but perhaps someone more expert that me might try looking, as it would be very interesting to add to the current discussion.

P.S. I've just thought that perhaps the map was produced from MetO raw data by another organisation (Meteogroup?) so might not be publicly available yet.

As noted above, models not handling regional rainfall totals well - very little in central southern England.

For today

GFS - HP moving in after the current LP departs, but mainly focused on the S with Atlantic depressions continuing to brush the N of Scotland for the whole of next week. Then a general pressure drop over the UK Mon 20th resoving itself into LP centre over the N for the rest of that week

GEFS temps drop to a low Sat 11th rising slowly to norm Tue 16th (earlier in Scotland) after which runs disagree but my view is warmer for a few days then back down again. Rain from Sat 18th onwards, though not a lot in the S. 

ECM like GFS but keeps Atlantic lows a bit further off to the N