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Heathrow reporting 29C. Wouldn’t be surprised if temperatures were still rising in some locations due to the late break up of cloud.
Originally Posted by: superteacher
Yes LHR has risen by 2.3 degrees between 3pm and 4pm. The hot air is arriving - currently about 13-14C at 850mb over London, in another 12 hours it will be 18C.
MetO automated has (and has had all day) Heathrow's max between 5 and 6 this afternoon/evening.
As for weather stations in Kent, having come into a lot of Amazon vouchers (converting hotel points into vouchers rather than Avios this time around) I'm seriously tempted to buy one of those pro Davis stations, with a fan for the thermometer... that should give more accurate readings than my Oregon which, sadly, always overreads when it's in direct sunshine.
I'll have a ponder over the weekend!
May be worth renaming this thread to reflect the upcoming and potentially exceptional heatwave?
Yes maybe something like Record Temperature Watch - August 2020.
Mods?
Originally Posted by: Rob K
Sleep well, guys!
12Z Arome seems to have knocked about 2C off tomorrows temps. - edit, no it hasn't!
12Z Arpege looking marginally hotter on Saturday than Friday now - 36C max on both days but there are more 36C gridpoints on Saturday.
12Z Arome seems to have knocked about 2C off tomorrows temps.
Whereas GFS has added one on to tomorrow - now 34C.
But when I look at Arome it seems to show 36C in central London, 37 and 38C in West London?
Originally Posted by: TimS
Yes, arome hasn't updated for me yet - Currently only at 6am tomorrow AM.
Looks like the latest runs have upgraded the heat up this way too. GFS going for 31/32C in Manchester on Wednesday next week, so you can call that 33/34C.Looking forward to this!
Looking at the latest Met Office output for Heathrow, it has 36, 36, 35, 35, 35, 33.Have we ever had five consecutive 35C days in the UK? I strongly suspect we haven't even had four.
I don't think we have. You have to say this might warrant a Level 4 Heatwave warning for the SE or at least London
Ignore that - Arome was cooler up to 11am but it's now updated to 3pm and looks warmer if anything.https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/aromezoom.php?mode=41&x=4858.21&y=2512.98&ech=26&zoom=4Lots of 36 and a ring of 38 at Heathrow.
I can see 37 there, but not 38... still very hot though!
It's also modelling something interesting here. 27C at 3 PM, then shooting up to 34 by 6 PM as the wind veers. That's a lot of detail to pack in and I'll be interested to see if it's right.
We have had five - in 1976!
From the excellent Trevor Harley:
The summer of 1976 was exceptional in containing 5 consecutive days above 35C.
https://www.trevorharley.com/hottest-day-of-each-year-from-1900.html
Interesting though that the max was "just" 35.9C...
36C or more has been seen in 7 years (1911, 1932, 1990, 2003, 2006, 2015, 2019)
(And 2020, of course, but he's not updated that bit yet!)
Originally Posted by: Bolty
Indeed. But more importantly I have next week off work. My last holiday was essentially the first two weeks of July and I fell flat on my face with that one, utterly abysmal. This time the hand of weather fate could be dealing me an absolute stunner.
If that turns out to be right, this could be one of the most intense heat waves in UK weather history! It would be incredible if it saw us, not only break the all-time record, but see 40C recorded!
If that happened it would make the August 2003 and even more so the August 1990 heat waves look puny by comparison.
I am looking at the excellent site weather.us
Arome has a very clear 38C shown.
With lot of clouds today might be a problem tomorrow because last week we got 34C in Nuneaton east of Birmingham and was supported from near sunny day on Thursday 30th July and 27C. If was sunny today and 27C as foretasted then 34-35C possible here tomorrow.
11th / 12th look very very hot on that 06z amazing agreement imo very close 40c after days of +30c
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=6&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0
look at the burning s/e slack flow amazing stuff
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=138
I've got a sneaking feeling that Saturday could end up being the real day to watch.
That will be in range of the Arome soon as well.
Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013
And at 4pm as well as the 38C there are a lot of 37Cs across East London too.
My Nissan said 30c at 16:30 was overcast until 1600 then sun broke out here amazing feet
Originally Posted by: Jiries
Tomorrow Arome has starting temperatures of 21C at 7am
On Saturday the starting temperature will be 24C at 7am
Originally Posted by: Retron
I think he is mistaken there. In his page for 1976 he says that there were five 35C+ days in the whole heatwave, but they weren't consecutive.
And looking at the date records from Torro for June:
The 25th certainly wasn't. 26th to 28th were 35C+, but then the 29th isn't mentioned (you'd think if it did reach 35.0C it would be mentioned as the tied for second place below the dubious Camden Square one.
And the 30th clearly wasn't either, so there can't have been more than four in a row even if the 29th was.
I need to find the official Met report for 1976.
The Monthly Weather Report for June 1976 says: "In London temperatures exceeded 32C on every day from the 25th to the 28th, the first time that this value has been reached in London on four consecutive days for at least 135 years".
I'm pretty sure that a mere 32C has been reached on more than four consecutive days at least once since then!