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superteacher
09 August 2020 09:03:53

I think today there is more of an easterly drift. Tomorrow, although the winds may still be easterly, the drift will be more from the SE. So today, temps may be similar to yesterday or slightly higher in places with the extra sun compensating against the cooler start.

severnside
09 August 2020 09:05:26

Overcast , gloomy dank garbage, 16c currently , I think yesterday was the last of the hot weather, managed 31c, with nice blue skies.

superteacher
09 August 2020 09:06:29


 


They continue to be too hot for London. 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Better chance tomorrow than today, although I’d think 36 max dependent on cloud.

Polar Low
09 August 2020 09:06:49

 But will be good if you require quick sun tan with wind burn take care folks the sun is mighty strong.


 




 


It was also showing 36C for yesterday, but there really is no basis for these forecasts, the wind profile doesn't support them.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2020 09:22:02
Arome shows 35C for today in London with a blob of 36C over Heathrow, so we’ll see. Late maxes.

But then Arome also shows 26C tomorrow and total cloud cover...
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
superteacher
09 August 2020 09:26:29

Arome shows 35C for today in London with a blob of 36C over Heathrow, so we’ll see. Late maxes.

But then Arome also shows 26C tomorrow and total cloud cover...

Originally Posted by: TimS 


With temps currently 23C around London, it will have to go some to reach 35.

Ally Pally Snowman
09 August 2020 09:30:34


 


With temps currently 23C around London, it will have to go some to reach 35.


Originally Posted by: superteacher 


 


If stays clear it will rocket later 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
09 August 2020 09:35:53


Met Office SE written forecast suggesting max 37°C tomorrow.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcp41sm2d#?nearestTo=Otterbourne%20(Hampshire)&date=2020-08-09


 


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


 


Just the 10c out if Arome is on the money. Arpege has 35c tomorrow just to the south of London but 30 ish over the capital. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2020 09:37:57
Was thinking of ways to compile a UK heatwave index that takes into account both intensity and duration.

To keep it simple, define a heatwave as a continuous string of days where somewhere reaches 30C or more. Then calculate heatwave degree days, for every degree above 30, using the top recorded UK temperature.

So this event has so far scored 0.1 (Thursday) + 6.5 + 4.5 = 11.1. If we managed to get 4 35s up to Wed then we’d squeeze out a 31.1 in total for the event.

August 2003: 0.5 + 2.5 + 3.9 + 6.1 + 1.6 + 2.3 + 6.0 + 8.5 + 4.7 + 2.0 = 38.1

June-July 1976: can’t find a day by day record, but I’m sure someone can.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Stormchaser
09 August 2020 09:38:45

Another unusual day ahead for southern England approx. Dorset eastward. Not only does the low cloud burn back to the North Sea coasts, the wind veers from northeasterly in the morning to east-northeasterly in the afternoon. Maybe even easterly within 10 miles or so of the south coast.

This arcs in an area of hotter air, beneath the 850 hPa level hence not visible on those charts, while also setting up a flow from the major urbanisations of the SE across Hampshire & toward Dorset.

This is where the high model predictions for max temp come from. If they’re right, the daytime temp rise should accelerate a lot during the next few hours, even more than usual for sunny weather.

This afternoon, convective potential may lead to some local letdowns - something to be prepared for the possibility of. Models aren’t going to reliably portray those with much accuracy even at 6 hours range.
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Ally Pally Snowman
09 August 2020 09:38:55

Lydd 27c


 


My punt 36c today at Kew.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
xioni2
09 August 2020 09:42:29


 Better chance tomorrow than today, although I’d think 36 max dependent on cloud.


Originally Posted by: superteacher 


Tomorrow doesn't look hot in London either, Tuesday looks much better for high max.

Heavy Weather 2013
09 August 2020 09:46:03
Skys are now their clearest for two days here in E London.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
nsrobins
09 August 2020 09:46:50


 


 


Just the 10c out if Arome is on the money. Arpege has 35c tomorrow just to the south of London but 30 ish over the capital. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Arome models residual garbage drifting west from overnight MCS across the Channel - UKV and Aperge don’t make much of it - hence the wide gap in maxes Monday. 
I don’t think Arome has it right but we’ll see.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Bertwhistle
09 August 2020 09:51:57

Another unusual day ahead for southern England approx. Dorset eastward. Not only does the low cloud burn back to the North Sea coasts, the wind veers from northeasterly in the morning to east-northeasterly in the afternoon. Maybe even easterly within 10 miles or so of the south coast.

This arcs in an area of hotter air, beneath the 850 hPa level hence not visible on those charts, while also setting up a flow from the major urbanisations of the SE across Hampshire & toward Dorset.

This is where the high model predictions for max temp come from. If they’re right, the daytime temp rise should accelerate a lot during the next few hours, even more than usual for sunny weather.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Sensible comments I think. There is a fresh NE and even Nly across the south, meaning E Anglian locations aren't doing so well at the moment. S of London and along the S Coast to Bournemouth doing better. Lydd quite anomalous at 27 with Gatwick 24, Hurn 23. Any further W and the uppers aren't supporting high temps. These days take a while to get going, but mid to late afternoon are often scorchers. This happened on a Sunday in July 1989- day started off cooler and breezier than the day before, but ended up hotter in the S.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
xioni2
09 August 2020 10:05:27


Arome models residual garbage drifting west from overnight MCS across the Channel - UKV and Aperge don’t make much of it - hence the wide gap in maxes Monday. 
I don’t think Arome has it right but we’ll see.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Yes, I think Arome is too cold for tomorrow, but to be fair it's a complex setup. My guess for Heathrow max starting from today is 32, 29 tomorrow and 36-37 on Tuesday. Wednesday could also have an early high max. 

Rob K
09 August 2020 10:05:55
Well after my earlier comments the cloud has vanished and the sky is clear. Currently only 21.1C though so more an old-fashioned British summer’s day!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
09 August 2020 10:08:42

Was thinking of ways to compile a UK heatwave index that takes into account both intensity and duration.

To keep it simple, define a heatwave as a continuous string of days where somewhere reaches 30C or more. Then calculate heatwave degree days, for every degree above 30, using the top recorded UK temperature.

So this event has so far scored 0.1 (Thursday) + 6.5 + 4.5 = 11.1. If we managed to get 4 35s up to Wed then we’d squeeze out a 31.1 in total for the event.
.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


It remains to be seen whether the 35s come off, but FWIW the 6z GFS has an area of 30C even on Thursday (as well as some really intense rainfall overnight into Thursday):


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7825/108-582UK_sqv7.GIF


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9951/90-779UK_ztf6.GIF


Unusual to see 45mm/6h modelled this far out... gives an idea of the potential intensity of those storms and it wouldn't surprise me either, there's a heck of a lot of moisture and energy around.


 

Leysdown, north Kent
Heavy Weather 2013
09 August 2020 10:08:59
MetOffice have updated for Heathrow and now 37C on Mon, Tues and Wednesday.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Rob K
09 August 2020 10:09:24
Just looked at the Met forecast for Heathrow. 37C three days on the trot from tomorrow?! Surely an unprecedented forecast.

If you switch to Fahrenheit it displays 98, 99, 99, so tomorrow slightly cooler 😉
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
09 August 2020 10:13:52

Just looked at the Met forecast for Heathrow. 37C three days on the trot from tomorrow?! Surely an unprecedented forecast.

If you switch to Fahrenheit it displays 98, 99, 99, so tomorrow slightly cooler ;)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


BBC have 33c 35c 34c 33c but they tend to normally be a bit conservative.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
09 August 2020 10:15:37


June-July 1976: can’t find a day by day record, but I’m sure someone can.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Partial list here:


23rd June 1976: 32.2C


24th June 1976: 32.4C


25th June 1976: 33.5C


26th June 1976: 35.4C


27th June 1976: 35.5C


28th June 1976: 35.6C


1st July 1976: 35.0C


2nd July 1976: 35.7C


3rd July 1976: 35.9C


4th July 1976: 34.1C


 


The run of consecutive 30C days lasted 18 days  from 21 June to 8 July inclusive I believe. 


 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Heavy Weather 2013
09 August 2020 10:18:19

Just looked at the Met forecast for Heathrow. 37C three days on the trot from tomorrow?! Surely an unprecedented forecast.

If you switch to Fahrenheit it displays 98, 99, 99, so tomorrow slightly cooler ;)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


One of the models is going to be embarrassingly wrong.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Ally Pally Snowman
09 August 2020 10:20:39

Latest GFS 6z has 35c 32c 35c 35c 30c

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2020 10:22:20


 


Partial list here:


23rd June 1976: 32.2C


24th June 1976: 32.4C


25th June 1976: 33.5C


26th June 1976: 35.4C


27th June 1976: 35.5C


28th June 1976: 35.6C


1st July 1976: 35.0C


2nd July 1976: 35.7C


3rd July 1976: 35.9C


4th July 1976: 34.1C


 


The run of consecutive 30C days lasted 18 days  from 21 June to 8 July inclusive I believe. 


 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


So that run comes to 45.4. Add on an average of 1 per day for the missing 6 days and that’s 51.4. Way ahead of 2003 through sheer duration.


July 2006 wouldn’t get anywhere near on this measure but would I suspect win on heatwave degree days across a whole month.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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