DON'T Ban me for this but just thought it was fun to look at - if only! (Low pressure to our south and HP to our north and east = 

Again - don't ban me but two weeks on I am still seeing a re-occurring pattern within the CFS long range for easterlies with northern blocking and southerly tracking lows over December esp towards Christmas. Maybe they could be on to something? I know many will cry it's a long way out but this pattern for a blocked and cold December is persistent within the long range CFS runs!? 

The model shows the strength of zonal winds @ 10hpa to remain weaker than average:

Yet another one  - continuing trend this: - whilst we can't take this seriously it is nice to look at...!?

We actually got very close to that in Dec 09/Jan 10

MBY got its first settling snow the Sunday before Xmas, which was added to in the subsequent days, giving around 7-8cm, which froze and lay on the ground until the 27th (the thaw actually set in on Boxing Day evening). After a week or so of milder weather, it turned cold again and heavy snow fell on the first Tuesday back (5th), giving 15-20cm widely over much of the country. From NW England northwards, the cold kept going until late Jan - we had snow lying until nearly the end of the month, and piled-up snow on car parks, etc were still slowly melting into Feb. 

To get two amazing winter spells in consecutive winters was special.

It is as you say way too soon. The clue is in the time stamp - +2640hrs.

That’s about +2520hrs more than is typically reliable. These ultra long term models are pretty much pig fodder and that’s being kind. There are plenty of other ‘more’ reliable trend tools that are worth a look as we go towards October.

I'm with you HW , just looking at Gavs video , lack of Hurricanes currently and a failing easterly QBO aren't filling me with joy or hope at the moment ….BUT very very early days .

But in saying the above zonal winds are forecast to be weak , which can favour a sustained period of blocking 

Looking at the CFS long range on meteorciel.fr

A reoccurring theme for HP to go to our north and LP to our south - of course this is again just for fun!

Zonal winds @ 10hpa look set to stay weaker than average:

Sadly Tally I have seen those so many times before and we get lovely SWlies 

Lets re-visit at 120hrs eh?

But feel free to prove me wrong each week 

That certainly encourages blocking but knowing the UK the block will sit slap bang on us lol 

Of course it's JFF. - Seems consistent within the longer range CFS for an easterly around Christmas or sometime in December but fun to look at - I won't take notice of this until November arrives!

What seems like a developing La Nina looks interesting, CFS models show moderate La Nina now!? - It has been a while since we last had a moderate La Nina for the winter - can't remember when the last Moderate La Nina was!?

Nice to hear from you!! Let's hope we see something different this season instead of the PV of doom and persistent record breaking zonal flow for months on end. 

Let me know if I've missed any - but anyone could have initiated this

I see Tally likes to set the bar of expectation at suitably high levels.

One thing i will say is that the tree's have turned much earlier this year, and i'm not just talking of horse chestnut. If i didn't know better i would have thought it was late September rather then early. Can't blame it on the weather either as the summer has been good, and autumn so far has been very warm. 

The last time i recall the tree's turning so early (2010) we had a cold winter 

Yes! What's interesting is that we have seen above average tropical activity in the Atlantic but very few hurricanes - which is unusual given how warm the SST's are in the Atlantic as a whole in general.  - Surely this is a recipe for development!?

A few have here, but that's due to drought stress - what rain we've had over the past few months has been either so light as to not do anything, or heavy enough to sluice straight across the land and into the drains / steams.

I think autumn has generally started earlier and the dry conditions may well be to blame, not just the leaves but the fruit. Our blackberries are already finished, and the sloes have been out in force for weeks.

So far from NOAA - Looks like things will really begin to live up, but as per above given how warm the SST's are in the Atlantic as a whole esp the N. Atlantic I am surprised none of these tropical depressions or disturbances or tropical storms are forecast to become a hurricane, they seem to disintegrate and fragment!? - Why is this? Due to the HP positioning? Wind sheer? 

In September 2017 there was at least three hurricanes in the Atlantic the same week . After Harvey there was Irma in September 2017 which hit Florida as a Major Cat 3/4 Hurricane, then there was Jose and then Katia, then there was Lee followed by Maria a Cat 5 - I remember that one, then Nate formed and then Ophelia - which we all remember! Most if not all were major Hurricanes. This year we haven't had a major hurricane in Atlantic - int he Gulf yes but not in Atlantic. That really active tropical season with major hurricanes in the Atlantic gave us southerly tracking lows in January and eventually extensive northern blocking in February as we can all remember it lead to the beast from the east. - with help by the SSW but I think there is a connection between Hurricanes and High latitude blocking throughout the winter months.

Of course there were other factors that lead to a slightly cooler than average winter such as the strong easterly QBO, and the weak La Nina. But again the winter as a whole 2017/18 was only -0.2 below average as most of the colder weather wasn't until the very end of it.

I see retron also mentioned it but hasn't been that dry here.. certainly nothing unusual. July was dry yes but a dry 3 or 4 week spell in summer here is far from unusual, and August saw plenty of rain but also lots of heat & sun. 

Walking in the forest just to the north of here in the last week of August there were two patches of beech trees that had shed a lot green leaves. This is very odd but i thought the intense heat of a couple weeks earlier or the storms a week or so before might have played a part. 

What i'm seeing now though are widespread leaf colour change even here within the city. The grass is nice green.

Sloe to here are looking plump and some of the hedges have begun to die back. No issues with blackberries, but Hazelnuts have been and gone.

Is this the record for the earliest snow ramp? 

Very likely.