UK Met Office GLOSEA5  seasonal long range outlook model has been updated:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Long range Probability maps:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

As I thought as the Met office never would go for colder or blocked weather. 

Looking at Arctic sea ice extent - looks like we are very very near the record 2012 minimum this year: - Perhaps the second biggest melt season for Arctic sea-ice recorded, it could still reach the death spiral of 2012, there is still another week to go - there is some northern blocking over Scandinavia next week which could drag up even warmer air into the northern latitudes which may increase the Arctic sea ice melt season further!?

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

I can't remember the last time the MetO went for broke and forecast a colder than average winter for Europe !

I think this is just a reflex risk-averse reaction from them

I couldn't find which anomaly set they were using for these (even tried looking at their own links inside the forecasts) so I assume 1961-90 in which case almost every winter these days is going to be warmer than average statistically anyway

Makes sense if they are using the data from the 1961 to 1990 average then yes winters will always be forecast to be milder then. 

This really is JFF 

Looks familiar to the Beast from the east below - but this would be colder if this was to materialize as days would be shorter too as it's December!

Take a look at this run for January - shows the whole of the month being an easterly - blocked Month!

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2694&mode=0&carte=0&run=3

Of course it's just for fun the the long range MODEL runs could be picking up on something as I recall many previous years you would see weeks and months of zonality! Whilst we can't take any of this for gospel it's rare for long range CFS models to go for an easterly and blocked patterns! Would you agree!?

Gavin P's latest updates on Gavsweathervids have got me quite interested. He's been looking at UK temperature and precipitation data for summer 2020 and August 2020. He's homed in on analogous years which fit the criteria for both summer in general and August in particular. The results for the following winters throw up quite a number of memorable ones from a very limited number. They range from an epic like 1947 to under-rated ones like 1990/1. 

Well worth a read:

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2020-21-weather-forecast.php

I'm getting interested now that we're moving out of solar minimum. I get the impression that if there really is a link between solar cycles and cold winters, it tends to favour winters a year or two after the new one gets going, rather than ones right in the depths of solar minimum (!978-9 would be a good example, along with 1947 itself).

So, my ultra-long range prediction would be for this winter to be one featuring a good snowy spell, along the lines of 1977-78, with next year, 2021-22, being a 1978-79-style humdinger!

Good news then. Winter 2009-10 and December 2010 occurred just as Solar Cycle 24 got going. We're at exactly the same stage for Cycle 25, so we might be lucky!

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

The proper cold doesn't arrive till February, sorry. It does stick around for most of the month though.

Back loaded winter would match the analogues Gav was showing - not that I'm a believer in pattern matching …..nevertheless something cold and white would be good this winter .

We have this potential first:

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1614&mode=0&carte=0&run=3

This is all JFF of course!  

As is (my) tradition, first geese flying overhead, so time to check in on TWO for winter!  Timing wise, slightly earlier this season, but a combination of good weather and working from home means I am outside more often!

Take a look at this run JFF:

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2334&mode=0&carte=0&run=4

Persistent signal for an easterly at some point throughout December beit at or before Xmas! JFF.

This is only in a week's time (and wouldn't deliver anything snowy to anywhere but the highest tops), but it would be a dream winter chart.

Except above average heights to the west of Portugal. But yes. Blocking over Greenland is what we what and cold northerly low pressure systems sinking southwards brining in northerly winds! - let's hope we do see this in winter time.

The above model chart reminds me of a pattern back on Sat 22nd September 2018 when a north westerly plunge swept through the UK and many parts of the UK even the south experience daytime maxes of 9.0c or +10c all day in the heavy cold rain. - Although this years September's cold snap looks like a better set up with more HLB. 

Interesting Long range CFS pattern developing for November and December from a northern Blocking perspective. - Still early days of course but some tentative signs!? 

Tally - the pattern will end up being the reverse of this.  Ive lost count of the number of years these forecasts turn out to be utter shite.

The Met Office admitted that they got their version by running their daily model out for up to 5 months into the future to get the DJF average. I realise they might be adding some overall considerations into this but we all know the models dissolve into chaos after about 5 days

I don't take it as gospel - I am just reading what models show...!? I know things will change but these are encouraging signs also because we have a negative IOD and developing La Nina which could enhance chances of a SSW like in winter of 2017/18. 

Also looking and strength of zonal winds at 60'N at 10hpa - they look to remain weaker than average for the next 3 months with a few going for reversal:

AO/NAO is set to take a dive next week in combination with this colder Autumnal shot.

http://178.62.112.79/prod/gfs/eps/strat/u10serie.png

Weak zonal winds is always a help when wanting something wintry but of course other factors need to play ball also 

I'm surprised you don't remember 2010-11?

Severe cold late November December, an average January and a very mild February.