Do you mean flood headlines like these?

https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/flood-warnings-and-alerts-in-suffolk-1-6953293

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/05/heavy-rainfall-prompts-flood-warnings-and-travel-disruptions-in-uk

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/maidstone/news/photos-show-extent-of-flooding-as-roads-remain-shut-238736/

Thanks for those links Darren. The models are certainly keeping us on our toes at the moment. ECM tonight seems to be sticking with the block, quite in contrast to others at 144. However half GFS runs keep blocking at the end, so could go either way.

Martin

The ECM at 144hr is closer to the GEM and UKMO than the GFS for what it is worth. My conclusion from that is that there is no agreement and more runs are needed. It could become either quite mild or quite cold or may even be around average. 

Your right Doc, I was a little bit pessimistic on some of the other runs 👍😃

ECM looks awfully close to a snow event in the 120 - 168h range. Ends v blocked. 

GEM control with the chart of the century this evening 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=1

You know it’s bad when not only the cannon fodder models but not even the op run of the cannon fodder models get wheeled out :)

ECM probably the pick of a bad bunch but even that is just delaying the slide to a Euroslug. After a brief tease it’s looking like normal service resumes for December. 

FI and all that but it's a shame HP bubbles up to the south of us on the ECM at T240 - would need the trough to our North to lift out or die off and the HP ridge to our West to combine with said HP to at least give a chance of surface cold, other than that I suspect it'd be dank and mild, gradually moving to wetter and mild. 

More interesting before that of course and prolongs the current chilly spell for longer than the GFS op (and mostly the GFS ens too). 

I'm actually quite optimistic there is a lot of HLB on the way sooner or later the charts will get more interesting. 

Well the ECM is actually a tonic after the GFS OP, with a west Atlantic ridge poised to link NE and get some proper HLB set up if the run could go past 240hrs.

Yes colder than it looks close up maybe-7 850 EA and S/E  @ T168 with short waves in the mix pleased with that run

ECM gives a hint at what might be right at the end, as a new Cell of HP starts to locate to our east... to far south to of any real use... but with an active low over towards Turkey - its not far off being a good setup to drive cold air from deeper in the continent, than just from a cool central Europe.

However for the interim, things continue with the message... relatively unsettled, potential for a pulse of warm air if the high locates to our south mid month...

Cool enough to feel the season, but not cold enough to be useful for much frost of wintry stuff... Again the UK takes its place as being "marginal" for the foreseasble

This is true.... but  most if not all are going for an evolution to either Mild, or cool.

Im not seeing many models going for cold air anywhere near Western Europe...

apart from that even last week where the GFS went for a GH, Ive not seen anything extreme in the models this winter yet

One policy change I would recommend to Biden would be to reduce the number of GFS runs to just twice a day.

This winter does have a 2008/09 vibe to it at the moment - just lacking in the frost department so far.

The chart makers produce a different output daily if not more often - regard confidence as low!

GFS - current LP not filling as quickly as forecast with the secondary centre off NE Scotland reviving and deepening Tue 8th before being superseded by Atlantic trough 985mb NI Sat 12th . After that, more activity on the N Atlantic to midweek; then strong appearance by Azores high (new!) 1035mb Cornwall Fri 18th moving N and forming ridge from Greenland to UK to Balkans and branch to Iberia Tue 22nd. That looks like surface cooling with frost and fog for week 2.

GEFS - temps stay cool with good agreement between runs to Fri 11th after which much less agreement but mean of runs now a degree or two above norm to Tue 22nd, op & control leading the way. Some rain Fri 11th -Thu 17th esp in S, persisting in W, rather less wet elsewhere and other times. GFS hasn't told GEFS about its Azores high development.

ECM - like GFS for the next week but has by Wed 16th already brought the Azores high through and placed it as a centre over the Baltic with SE/E-lies beginning to develop