One day more than the BftE* (or the Jan 87 spell) gave here.

* apart from a couple of transient, sub-1cm dustings

It's the hope that kills you 

The end of the run looks just fine to me?

Temporarily colder air from a transitory ridging northwards by the AH, in what looks like a moderately mobile set-up. Meanwhile, a huge block sits covering most of mainland Eurasia

If you run the sequence it's not necessarily a transitory ridge. Even if it is, it's still lining up to deliver a seasonal start to Xmas.

Anyway, let's see where the Op sits in the ensembles.

The speed of climate change cannot be underestimated. I have seen a dramatic change in my lifetime. When I read my dad’s diaries from his childhood, it is even more stark - because I read how the winters were so hard, even in the Deep south of the UK - on their farm near Chichester, where he used to watch dog fights during the Battle of Britain, and learned to skate on ponds - because the ice was so thick. Snow and ice were normal. Today, the 1 degree of additional heat has made a dramatic difference in the Uk, so lasting cold is rare. We need all the ducks to be aligned now - meaning long batches of mobile, mild and wet winters, with barely a frost. This winter and in particular the next should see more ducks aligned, in terms of ENSO, QBO, sunspot numbers, disrupted jet stream etc. The delay in the accumulation of cold is a factor of the modern winter, as it takes longer for the N. hemisphere to cool down, and it is heating back up again in spring much sooner. The target of Late December to Mid Feb is narrowing, but for another decade or two, the right conditions should deliver. What is encouraging, after the eye candy of the GFS charts in FI this morning, is that the jet is consistently signalled to remain disrupted - which means that the chance of a block developing is still high, and being at the start of winter, such rinse/ repeats have a chance of bringing ever greater cold - assuming they are in  a decent configuration. I would therefore not be too surprised to see tomorrows run back showing more eye candy to tease us with. 

A fairly uninspiring set of 18z ENS as well, which in the main range beween the Atlantic systems heading into Scandi to continental high pressure stubbornly hanging on and sending  S/SE winds over us. There's the odd more interesting run, but that's it.

I wouldnt say i was a denier, but blimey... the past few winters have become increasingly dire - if they werent that bad already...

The average temp for Nov has increased year on year here, wetter, and frosts rarer.

I get the point - one winter does not make a climate.  But theres just no way of getting round it now.  

just an example of how mild its been recently - theres still bedding plants in my neighbours garden... In my other neighbours garden we have a lilly beginnig to flower.

A wee bit of friendly advice here from a fellow member: It would be good if we could focus on the model output without bringing climate change into the discussion. Bearing in mind what Brian said about this more than a year ago, we don't want to give him any reasons to wield the axe on anyone or anything, do we! There are threads which IMHO are appropriate for making mention of that subject, but I'm not sure this is one of them.

Back on topic: Still much uncertainty in the output for later in December. The atlantic looks as if it wants to take over, but the block to the east just about manages to prevent a total takeover by the atlantic. There are also some suggestions of the arctic high possibly coming into play later on in the month too. As I see it, things are still a long way from being decided one way or another.

Nice to see some proper festive charts on the Xmas run up.....if this sort of set up verifies things are going to evolve pretty quickly.Lets hope something similar is around at 168hrs....the UK often gets hit by a rex this time of year in colder Decembers.

going to deny it

Some seasonable very cold air making a move into Russia in week 2.  http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 IMO cold air masses, like hurricanes, 'make their own weather' and can be difficult to stop once they're on the move. Here's hoping! but back to the here and now ...

GFS - a rather jumbled picture with LP on the Atlantic pushing the occasional trough across the UK (e.g. Sat 12th) but not developing strongly or making progress E'wards. Ridge from Azores HP from Thu 17th becomes centred over UK Wed 23rd so possibly some seasonal frosty weather. A promising long fetch E'ly shown on the final chart Thu 24th which has by then got as far as Scandi - put back by a day since yesterday's chart so will we still get a Christmas present?

GEFS - temps rising to norm Fri 11th and staying there (or a little above ca Mon 14th) with slight cooling towards Thu 24th (and one stellar (sic)  outlier at -14C!) Bits and pieces of rain mostly around Mon 14th, and more in the SW than elsewhere .

ECM - agrees with GFS to Sat 12th but then keeps the Atlantic influence going with LP centre moving up the W Coast to Scotland Thu 17th.

P30 shows the cold arriving a few days earlier and in time for Christmas. Ah well we can dream...

There you go - the eye candy is back to ‘commute on the double 00’ with rinse and repeat block set to give Santa a helping hand from his Lapland residence, although that timing would not deliver until Boxing Day - statistically always twice as likely as the big day itself. The emotionally engaging rollercoaster will tease out the outcome to grief or glory throughout advent - no doubt. So deep into FI its still just a dream, but better its there than not.

What for ? Poor ECM today with low pressure anchored out to the West bringing mild conditions and potential flooding for Western areas.

And for those looking at day 10 plus for hope the ECM shows the modern spolier - a shortwave at the end of the jetstreak.

☺️

I have had a look at the output across the models this morning and I think your post is extremely misleading. I am not pretending it is a stunning outlook for coldies but I think you have gone too far the other way 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

yes, but this is not a typical Zonal type anomaly showing at that point is it?

I'm not saying the output is not without interest for the latter third of the month, however it is deep FI and we've seen this sort of thing before only to see it all scuppered at T144 or less by shorwaves - think the great failure of Dec 2012.

There are always non-model signs to the winter ahead, and one exceedingly rare event in recent years - which suggests this year will be different from the muck and mayhem of recent Atlantic dominated winters is the fact that I still have a smattering of snow on my back lawn that fell on Friday. I cannot remember having lying snow last so long since the beast from the east and before that for a fair few years. Also if it lasts today - it will be 2 consecutive ice days and nights with rime frost and freezing fog. Not sen that in a long time too. Whilst one or other model scenario might not work out as per usual, something will with the different background factors in the mix, IMO, despite the gloom from the met office.

Love a good cold ramp. Nice one Crewe. 

Control for Xmas Day: - Looks like it could be a set up for an easterly, beasterly for between Xmas and NY. - Take a look at the extended run for fun: - This is far from mild zonality and indicative of a -AO and NAO.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=462&run=99&lid=C00&h=0&mv=0&tr=6

GFS 00Z Operational end blocked in FI range yet again - so something is up?  A SSW could take place? Who knows. I wonder what today's update will show!?

Even the strength of zonal winds will weaken too and go into reverse on many runs - even bias corrected!? Could always change of course but watch this space.