Thought it'd probably be worth posting the London GFS ens, which show it being mainly on the chilly side of average over the next 9-10 days, just in case any other comments confused the matter.

Post 26th a good possibility we'll experience some much milder weather down here, with temps hitting 10-11c on the corresponding T2M plots, probably for 24-48 hours although could be a touch longer I guess. Slim chance though it stays colder and temps struggle to average at best.

Longer term and there's the expected plenty of scatter but a reasonable chunk of said scatter is on the colder side of average, suggesting there will be an ongoing chance of cold weather re-establishing in the south into February.

Taking the ens further North shows a similar picture albeit more chance of snow throughout and temps more likely to remain a touch lower than average throughout, particularly for Scotland.  

Just looking at the GFS Op and as you'd expect given the setup, Wales North shows the most likely position of any snow, with snowfall shown from mid afternoon Wednesday for parts of Scotland, more widely in Northern England and again parts of Scotland during Thursday along with parts of Wales and a wintry shower risk continuing through in to Sunday with a band of mostly snow moving down through the Midlands. Thereafter Tuesday 26th Jan shows a band of rain turning readily to snow at least for a time from the Midlands North and a similar repeat occurrence on Thursday 28th, Scotland tending to remain on the snow side (at least for higher ground and away from some of the coastal fringes) throughout. No it won't verify exactly like that but that shows snow chances for over a week and not just restricted to Scottish mountains or the highest ground of Northern England. 

ECM shows a broadly similar picture. The Op was towards the top of the milder options around the 25th Jan so may be being a little too enthusiastic with the HP build to the south at that time and consequently the extent of the milder air dragged towards the South. It's not an outlier though so some support for that evolution.

TBH if you'd stripped out the colder ens, particularly when they became the minority option last week you'd have said the pattern would have looked very similar to the London end up to the 26th of Jan, with the uncertainty post that period greater. So other than firming up on a possible couple of day window for quite mild weather down here 27th Jan (ish) the consistency in the models hasn't been too bad IMO. Certainly what's being shown as likely now was what I thought was likely from the middle part of last week

No it's not a prolonged deep cold spell and yes the south is likely to see mostly cold rain but it's not a mild pattern for the most part and snow chances are there for quite a few areas for quite a bit of the time. It also wouldn't surprise me if some of the Midlands saw at least temporary snow and other places in the south a few flakes. Not great of course but it is what it is and consistent with what's been shown by the ens for a while now.

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

Dont worry, it stops me from having to look at charts showing rain here and snow just outside our permitted area of travel 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

To look on the bright side, it is an ill wind which blows nobody any good. Massive disappointment for cold weather fans that charts at 10 days out did not materialise as had been hoped. Given the recent SSW we were giving undue credence to stellar charts which then failed to come to fruition, with the projected Greenie HP failing to be robust enough or far enough east to deliver wintery nirvana.

However, the bright side? We are in the middle of a nasty pandemic with a mass rollout of vaccine and we don't want that disrupted if at all possible, so the silver lining of a lack of deep snow and bitter winds, is that the vaccine rollout won't be disrupted by a severe wintery outbreak.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Agree Maunder. If that pathetic wet snow we had on Saturday is the best we can do in the modern warming era, then I would prefer it never to be cold at all. I am now yearning for some warm sunshine to help end the virus so we can socialise again in the pub

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Theres no confusion the outlook is fairly mild in the south apart from a brief chilly spell. Here's London forecasts temps.

8c, 12c, 11c, 10c , 8c, 7c, 7c,10c, 11c, 11c, 11c, 10c,10c, 10c,

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Look at that lovely warmth over Iberia.  Ecm gets close to bringing it our way by day 10 would be some very mild temps if we can tap into it

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=1&tr=24#mapref

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yes very early to see that warmth and after they got snow and now they will get a heatwave so that very interesting weather-wise than here.  Also to notice the warmth so eager to start showing it hands are in Death Valley had reached 32C 90F on 16th Jan which is a new record after 31C 87F was broken.  If we can't get anything cold and snowy then I would rather see warmth coming early this year.  Some 20C uppers also appearing on the lower part of the charts in the Middle East.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Some colossal rainfall totals over the next 10 days especially for northern England.  Limited snow opportunities away from northern hills. In fact its mainly mild in the south.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Theres no confusion the outlook is fairly mild in the south apart from a brief chilly spell. Here's London forecasts temps.

8c, 12c, 11c, 10c , 8c, 7c, 7c,10c, 11c, 11c, 11c, 10c,10c, 10c,

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Are you only permitted to travel 3 miles?

😂😎

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Forecast using what model as that's not what the GFS run you were talking about shows, which is as below. If you're going to comment about it being mild whilst referencing a particular model run, by all means clarify that you're in fact using other information to come to that conclusion otherwise it's just misleading. For London that shows a few mild days then generally below average for the next 9-10 days. 

Now if you mean fairly mild to be not cold and snowing then yes, it's fairly mild. If you're talking about versus the weather you'd expect for the time of year based on the long term averages then no it's not a mild picture for the next 9-10 days as per the GFS and broadly other model output. 

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

Despite a lot of talk about SSWs and model confusion the reality is the NWP has been performing pretty well recently. Beyond about 7 days there is ALAWAYS uncertainty. I remain of the view that a lot of nonsense is spouted about SSWs in general. That's NOT to say they aren't an important player and should be ignored. However, looking at the 500hPa level remains the best way of forecasting short to medium term in the UK. Anything beyond that involves rolling a dice or looking at longer term forcing and recent climatology. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I've been looking for the MetO press release about their HITOP (High top?) model and how it would improve forecasts. It was published several years ago. Can anyone locate it please?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I wasn't talking about the gfs. I was talking about ECM.  The temps I quoted are from the bbc Meteogroup normally fairly accurate certainly better than the GFS which is normally 2 or 3c below actual. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

GFS 6z has 13c on 26th and 14c widely on the 27th. Remember you can normally add 2 or 3c to these. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I wasn't talking about the gfs. I was talking about ECM.  The temps I quoted are from the bbc Meteogroup normally fairly accurate certainly better than the GFS which is normally 2 or 3c below actual. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Apologies just checked your original mild post and you you didn't specifically reference the GFS or any of the models, just stated it was looking mild.

The general point still stands though IMO but we'll have to agree to disagree

I linked this the other day but this site is quite good if you want to play around with the ECM data ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Tunbridge Wells District | Meteologix.com You can get an idea of where the Op sits in the ens, along with upper and lower scatter etc. and as with the more widely available GFS ens data can check the T2M temps in similar format to the GFS charts. 

The 2-3c underestimate of temps is sometimes true but FWIW the last cold spell was generally the other way round IMBY - lots of forecasts of 5-6c and ground temps of 0-3c instead. Given the generally chilly nature of the last few weeks I'd have said less moderation would occur than normal and there's less likelihood of the temps being under estimated than normal but that's purely a guess on my part.

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

Was it this Brian? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19584302 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Yes, about that, maybe 5 at most. 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

GFS 6z has 13c on 26th and 14c widely on the 27th. Remember you can normally add 2 or 3c to these. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman