Personally I continue to think the GEFS has been performing pretty well. 

GEFS 06z from Tue 12th January

GEFS12z from 18th January

Perhaps he likes rain? 😆

There is a point when the word ‘uncertainty’ just doesn’t fit.  That chart just reinforces the point about ignoring everything past T+144 in the current situation.

My take is that everyone has a ticket in the lottery. I consider the weather to be interesting at the moment.

I guess that's true but what lottery is he playing here?

"OVER 90% of the gefs starting to look a lot more interesting post t240."

Obviously not the cold lottery 🙄 

True - However we have lost those ENS with the sub -10c uppers.

Yes there is no doubt this week's cold incursion has been moderated but the general pattern looks well handled to me.

Hi all, not normaly posting on the MO thread, But looking at those charts Brian has posted it would seem to be coldish for a period of time. I suppose the point being I would like it to be as safe as possible for people to go and get their vaccinations ASAP. SOZ if off topic

I saw that when I got up (over an hour ago)... all gone on the 0z of course!

Perhaps an emerging trend - towards a cold February filldyke, be it black or be it white, the white is better to like; as the old weather lore saying goes. Only 9 runs show anything mild into FI, a third of the runs, with the majority showing a truly cold outcome and a fair sprinkling of eye candy runs - the op being one of the more sedate: but one I would be mighty glad to see manifest....

Mild, chilly, mild, cold?

Can the GEFS countdown a cold spell from 300+ hrs out ,possible but unlikely.  

Looks very wet as well so flooding on the menu. 

jetstream - after a couple of days when there is a weak NW-ly flow over the Uk and something stronger developing on the Atlantic, the two join forces and to generate a broad and strong stream across either the S of the UK or (esp later)France through to Thu 4th with only an occasional brief ripple interrupting the flow.

GFS - Storm Christoph arrives on Thu a little further south than previously forecast, now over N England, moves N and hangs around until dissipating Mon 25th. Then mild-ish but weak zonal flow until Tue 2nd when something deeper appears over the Hebrides 980mb, introducing colder air and sinking S while filling.

GEFS - see Ally's post above which matches the synoptics quite nicely. That posted chart is for London but quite close to those for the whole of UK, though Scotland looks somewhat drier and colder around Mon 24th, and not quite as mild later on.

ECM - similar to GFS though it additionally throws in a shallow LP passing over Scotland Wed 27th

OP and control ...let's hope they are sniffing something out for early Feb..

Given that the "chilly" was initially modelled as "cold" then perhaps mild, chilly, mild, chilly is more likely by the time we get there?

I'm hoping not, this time around but, as we're all seeing, there's still a huge amount of variability from one run to the next beyound around 144hrs.

I'd agree, sadly it's a very poor outlook for southern snow fans. There's also a chance of some exceptionally mild weather between 26th and 30th.

Still think the likelyhood of an early February 1978 style cold is the most likely route to very cold conditions in UK this winter especially to the south.east.

Only a week or two ago it looked as if a January 1940 was on the cards but the models like to tease at long range...

Yes we're firmly in Murray Walker territory now. 

Only a month to go and then it will be Kenneth Wolstenholme territory

As long as it is not followed by a 1978 style summer. 1978 (trevorharley.com)

Indeed. 

Actually Feb 1978 looks like a really weird set-up synoptically. Trevor Harley talks about a Scandi high but in fact by the time of the blizzard on the 19th-20th there was a big Scandi trough and a weird thin ridge of high pressure to its west that somehow managed to act as a block to the Atlantic. Never seen anything quite like it to be honest.

Assuming this chart is accurate: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1978/era/ERA_1_1978021918_1.png