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Jiries
20 January 2021 08:43:36


Well, if this winter tells us anything, it is that the sort of synoptics we believe will deliver winter heaven to the UK, don't have to.


The PV can be polaxed and we can have genuine height rises over Greenland, but the weather gods just laugh their jolly little socks off and can still machine gun fire Atlantic LPs across the UK and NW Europe.


I give up, I really do. If we were in a zonal winter and saw FI charts like the synoptics we currently have, we would be drooling with anticipation, but because the Azores HP won't sod off, we still get the LPs and mild incursions, they just travel more slowly than usual causing flooding problems.


God I hate the Atlantic - if I could, I would drain it completely and pour the salty water down the throats of all those media weather presenters who utter the most horrible phrase in the English language: "at least it will be mild".


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


There a way to lower the Atlantic levels by open pipe channels to flow water to the deserts regions and flood it then let it evaporate over before flooding it again and again this way the sea levels will drop a lot which came make a difference to the climate and there mountains under the mid Atlantic that will rise above and will protect UK from mild weather and cut off gulf stream.  There are many deserts that need water around and it need to be something to stop the sea levels rising and our climate had gone wetter and milder in winters and cooler wetter summers nowadays.


The Pacific are better as they allow heatwaves and snow storms in Vancouver and Japan.

The Beast from the East
20 January 2021 09:15:42


Well, if this winter tells us anything, it is that the sort of synoptics we believe will deliver winter heaven to the UK, don't have to.


The PV can be polaxed and we can have genuine height rises over Greenland, but the weather gods just laugh their jolly little socks off and can still machine gun fire Atlantic LPs across the UK and NW Europe.


I give up, I really do. If we were in a zonal winter and saw FI charts like the synoptics we currently have, we would be drooling with anticipation, but because the Azores HP won't sod off, we still get the LPs and mild incursions, they just travel more slowly than usual causing flooding problems.


God I hate the Atlantic - if I could, I would drain it completely and pour the salty water down the throats of all those media weather presenters who utter the most horrible phrase in the English language: "at least it will be mild".


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


There is too much heat in the oceans nowadays so the jet is fired up. We were lucky this winter to at least see some snow, compared to the previous two where we hardly had a frost down here


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Zubzero
20 January 2021 09:30:56


 


There is too much heat in the oceans nowadays so the jet is fired up. We were lucky this winter to at least see some snow, compared to the previous two where we hardly had a frost down here


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yep has felt like Winter in the South. But sadly it,s been a Winter akin to getting a bakewell tart with no cherry on top 😞

nsrobins
20 January 2021 09:40:27


 


There is too much heat in the oceans nowadays so the jet is fired up. We were lucky this winter to at least see some snow, compared to the previous two where we hardly had a frost down here


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


On the western side of the N Atlantic yes but a large area of the eastern N Atlantic have anomalously cool temperatures at the moment. You can clearly see the La Niña ENSO state but this continues to wane to neutral.


https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
MRayner
20 January 2021 09:40:52


 


Yep has felt like Winter in the South. But sadly it,s been a Winter akin to getting a bakewell tart with no cherry on top 😞


Originally Posted by: Zubzero 

The cherry is in Scotland, snow lying since the 23rd December, best winter for a long time 😋

Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL
Zubzero
20 January 2021 09:44:22


The cherry is in Scotland, snow lying since the 23rd December, best winter for a long time 😋


Originally Posted by: MRayner 


Some parts of Scotland 😜

fairweather
20 January 2021 09:55:51

With the models showing the cool/cold theme continuing I really feel sorry for the Scottish ski industry. What cracking conditions they have but need to remain shut. My guess would be once they can reopen we will get very mild south westerlies!

Originally Posted by: Narnia 


Yes, I was thinking that. It's a bit of a busted flush anyway these days. I was up in the Cairngorms a couple of years back and it was looking a bit neglected. I think it is more individuals than an industry these days but I could be wrong.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
20 January 2021 10:00:24


 


There is too much heat in the oceans nowadays so the jet is fired up. We were lucky this winter to at least see some snow, compared to the previous two where we hardly had a frost down here


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Still no snow lying here so in danger of making that three years. In fact except for one day in February (the Beast, the rest not strictly winter) it is more like 8 years in S.Essex.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
jhall
20 January 2021 10:16:36


 


There a way to lower the Atlantic levels by open pipe channels to flow water to the deserts regions and flood it then let it evaporate over before flooding it again and again this way the sea levels will drop a lot which came make a difference to the climate and there mountains under the mid Atlantic that will rise above and will protect UK from mild weather and cut off gulf stream.  There are many deserts that need water around and it need to be something to stop the sea levels rising and our climate had gone wetter and milder in winters and cooler wetter summers nowadays.


The Pacific are better as they allow heatwaves and snow storms in Vancouver and Japan.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


The big difference is that Japan is on the eastern edge of a large land mass and the western edge of an ocean. So the northern island of Japan could be thought of as analogous to New England. I don't think that Vancouver's winter climate is that different to the UK's, though it does have an advantage in not having the North Sea to its east and also in having Alaska not too far to its north.


I sometimes fantasise aboput what the UK climate would be like if the Earth span in the opposite direction.

Cranleigh, Surrey
Rob K
20 January 2021 10:21:01


 


There a way to lower the Atlantic levels by open pipe channels to flow water to the deserts regions and flood it then let it evaporate over before flooding it again and again this way the sea levels will drop a lot which came make a difference to the climate and there mountains under the mid Atlantic that will rise above and will protect UK from mild weather and cut off gulf stream.  There are many deserts that need water around and it need to be something to stop the sea levels rising and our climate had gone wetter and milder in winters and cooler wetter summers nowadays.


 


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


I know such schemes have been mooted (to flood parts of the Sahara that are below sea level for instance) but I can't see it having any effect on sea levels. The evaporation would just lead to more rainfall which would go back into the ocean eventually.


 


Anyway closer to home I am starting to get a little more optimistic about the prospect of finally seeing a bit of snow down here over the weekend. As ever the parallel is more bullish about settling snow in the south but I think its parameters need adjusting as it has quite a lot of settling snow in the NW from the current system.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
20 January 2021 10:46:23
Parallel run has been consistent with its theme at 10 days plus easterly is there again
idj20
20 January 2021 10:47:26

Either I've got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning or I'm just being honest/realistic but I've given up hopes of seeing anything too wintry for my neck of the woods for the rest of this Winter. Watered down 850 hpas and heights too low to the north of the UK and high pressure holding firm to the south = westerlies as far as I can see. Granted there are the odd "tasty" easterly options on the table but all are a million miles way and just chasing rainbows, until then it is true that some parts of the UK (particularly the Borders) could do well with short lived transient snowfalls, just not here at my end of Kent.

So with all that to mind, I'm going to call time on this "Winter" and just look forward to the first bit of Spring-like warmth (like in Feb '19).

Folkestone Harbour. 
Rob K
20 January 2021 10:47:43

Parallel run has been consistent with its theme at 10 days plus easterly is there again

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Yes, it even seems to be bringing it forward rather than staying at 14 days plus.


 


There's a chart to make the mouth water if ever there was one.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
jhall
20 January 2021 10:52:25


Either I've got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning or I'm just being honest/realistic but I've given up hopes of seeing anything too wintry for my neck of the woods for the rest of this Winter. Watered down 850 hpas and heights too low to the north of the UK and high pressure holding firm to the south = westerlies as far as I can see. Of course, some parts of the UK (particularly the Borders) could do well with short lived transient snowfalls, just not here at my end of Kent. 

So I'm going to call time on this "Winter" and just look forward to the first bit of Spring-like warmth (like in Feb '19).


Originally Posted by: idj20 


You might have been thinking the same way on this date in 1956 or 1986. I've just looked at the archive charts, and they don't look that different for 20th January from this year's.

Cranleigh, Surrey
Rob K
20 January 2021 10:56:11


Either I've got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning or I'm just being honest/realistic but I've given up hopes of seeing anything too wintry for my neck of the woods for the rest of this Winter. Watered down 850 hpas and heights too low to the north of the UK and high pressure holding firm to the south = westerlies as far as I can see. Granted there are the odd "tasty" easterly options on the table but all are a million miles way and just chasing rainbows, until then it is true that some parts of the UK (particularly the Borders) could do well with short lived transient snowfalls, just not here at my end of Kent.

So with all that to mind, I'm going to call time on this "Winter" and just look forward to the first bit of Spring-like warmth (like in Feb '19).


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Could be a long wait for some spring warmth (unless today's 11C mild and wet counts). The CFS monthly update goes for a cold March. Edit... OK well it did yesterday but it doesn't today 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
idj20
20 January 2021 10:56:32


 


You might have been thinking the same way on this date in 1956 or 1986. I've just looked at the archive charts, and they don't look that different for 20th January from this year's.


Originally Posted by: jhall 



I just think there is no such thing as pattern matching - at least not in the finer sense. Our atmosphere is in a constant state of chaos, it's just coincidence that some seasons seems to look similar to each other. There's every chance that this coming February will turn out to be just as wet, or better still, warmer and drier.

Folkestone Harbour. 
ballamar
20 January 2021 11:01:41
Well the parallel run keeps getting better! Not checked if it has any support in the ENS
jhall
20 January 2021 11:03:24




I just think there is no such thing as pattern matching - at least not in the finer sense. Our atmosphere is in a constant state of chaos, it's just coincidence that some seasons seems to look similar to each other. There's every chance that this coming February will turn out to be just as wet, or better still, warmer and drier.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


It could be either of those, of course. My point is just that the charts of today and those forecast for the next few days certainly don't rule out a cold February. And the GFS Para seems to agree with me! I believe it's soon to replace the current version of the model. If it had already done so, I wonder how different the sentiment here would have been.

Cranleigh, Surrey
Rob K
20 January 2021 11:06:46

Well the parallel run keeps getting better! Not checked if it has any support in the ENS

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


GEFS only out to 192 hours yet but looks like slightly more support for height rises to the north already. 240 hours is where we want to start seeing that support.


The parallel is very different from the old GFS. Let's hope it is a worthy upgrade!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Arbroath 1320
20 January 2021 11:23:24


 


GEFS only out to 192 hours yet but looks like slightly more support for height rises to the north already. 240 hours is where we want to start seeing that support.


The parallel is very different from the old GFS. Let's hope it is a worthy upgrade!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


That's 3 GFS parallel runs in the trot with evolution to a Scandi high in FI. Unusual consistency so far out. Looking through the ENS there does appear to be some support. It all seems to depend on the extent of the Iberian high ridging North. 


Given it's FI, all very possible that the evolution could disappear in the next run, but interesting all the same. 

GGTTH
Rob K
20 January 2021 11:35:56
The GEFS are now out to 264 hours and look a bit disappointing, Nothing below -7C for London at this point, whereas the previous run had some -12C action into the east.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
fairweather
20 January 2021 11:37:11




I just think there is no such thing as pattern matching - at least not in the finer sense. Our atmosphere is in a constant state of chaos, it's just coincidence that some seasons seems to look similar to each other. There's every chance that this coming February will turn out to be just as wet, or better still, warmer and drier.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


.... plus the same pattern is likely to be a couple of degrees warmer now that it was in 1956 and 1986!

S.Essex, 42m ASL
backtobasics
20 January 2021 11:39:02
Parallel is certainly of interest. With regards the current operational to me the common theme recently seems to be repeated northerly plunges as areas of LP pass through although the real cold often just our west.

Still all to play for through Feb, perhaps in a few days we may start to see easterly hints more widely and consistently in the various models.
fairweather
20 January 2021 11:44:26

I think cold fans in the snow starved S.E need to look at the near future rather than long term, which is frankly hopeless at the moment based on the 006z GFS Ensembles (London). But his weekend is of interest now, The 850hPa still hits a low of-6.5C air temps forecast to be around 3C and DP's lower than last weekend at -3C maybe at times. Now in range of the fax charts there is a little low coming up from France which may provide the precipitation. As in the majority of cases this century it will probably marginal and not more than 1-2cm but likely to be our best bet till February is well under way,

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Rob K
20 January 2021 11:54:56
Really not much sign of any support for the Parallel solution on the GEFS, it is out on its own with the Scandi high.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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