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tallyho_83
23 January 2021 18:02:46


GEM is performing well and enters interesting territory in FI on the 12z


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Is FI in your eyes the 240z range? For me is anything past 240z.


Interesting - i wonder if the ECM will continue this theme? The GFS keep flip flopping from easterly to south westerly to northerly and now another flip so we shall see. - Which is more recent/up to date - is it the 12z ECM/GEM or 12z GFS?


Anyway GEM shows cold air is never too far away:


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


NDunwell
23 January 2021 18:16:19


To be honest, after having seen some footage of flooding with homes collapsing in parts of the UK, I'd think we'd be better off wanting to see the end of back-to-back rain rather than scrabbling around looking for short lived marginal slop-fests in la-la land.

I'd probably get shot down for having said that but it's time to look at the bigger picture and see what really is happening.



Originally Posted by: idj20 


 


The weather will do what it wants to do whatever you look for. What people look for from the models isn't going to change what the weather does next week! 

Nick
Ruislip (2 miles from the Northolt recording station)
JRobinson
23 January 2021 18:18:11


 


Easterly muck 


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/europe/m0_sea-level-pressure/20210206-0600z.html 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


I just couldn’t resist looking at the snow depths charts from that link...


Anywhere between 12-24 inches for my location!


Bound to verify.


Banked

Whether Idle
23 January 2021 18:27:09

Perhaps the 12z ECM can bring us an earlier NEly with some teeth by day 9?  Its got be a possibility...

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
23 January 2021 18:39:50

Quite a bit more cold rain likely here on the ECM 12z so far (and less cold rain elsewhere which is not what is needed)



 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
MRayner
23 January 2021 18:40:46

12zECM, stalling the northwards progression of the front on Wednesday, now showing it not clearing Scotland, all othe models showing it heading north . Will be interesting to see who’s right.Selfishly could be a snow fest in N/e Scotland 🥶

Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL
Rob K
23 January 2021 18:46:26


To be honest, after having seen some footage of flooding with homes collapsing in parts of the UK, I'd think we'd be better off wanting to see the end of back-to-back rain rather than scrabbling around looking for short lived marginal slop-fests in la-la land.

I'd probably get shot down for having said that but it's time to look at the bigger picture and see what really is happening.



Originally Posted by: idj20 


I've never really understood this view, because what we "want" or look at the models hoping to see has absolutely no impact on whether it will rain or flood or shine or blow.


 


ECM looking quite interesting with lows sliding to the south and -8C air already back in to the east coast by day 8...

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
23 January 2021 18:55:40

ECM and ICON have no milder spell at all. Keep it cold and snowy for Scotland.


GFS brings it milder everywhere for a few days up to Friday.


UKMO somewhere in between.


Odd to see such disagreement at this range!


 


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Ally Pally Snowman
23 January 2021 19:05:23

Indeed ECM close to greatness again. Just a few tweaks from day 7 could set up the Beast.


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
tallyho_83
23 January 2021 19:16:33


Indeed ECM close to greatness again. Just a few tweaks from day 7 could set up the Beast.


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Pulling face's the ECM once again I see? Two eyes and a nose and a mouth? -Yawning too.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
23 January 2021 19:23:19

Poor show:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49069



Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Couldn't agree more - last nights 12z and 18z shows a downward trend in the ENS Mean and today they have backed off that idea but then again we have the ECM with potential come the end and the GEM and the GFS12z control which look like southerly tracking low as well as parallel run shows several southerly tracking lows followed by an easterly in FI!? So who knows? As long as we keep some sub -10c ENS runs even in FI then I am happy. But it seems like the roller coaster of a ride will continue. One thing for sure is that this winter is far more interesting in terms of model watching that last - just a pity that none of these models have materialised. Image the amount of snow we could have already had if all the models materilaised? We would be buried with snow by now. 


 

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Tim A
23 January 2021 19:31:20
ECM fails with the mild spell , with at worst the snow line and cold air Northern England northwards and further south most of the time.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
doctormog
23 January 2021 19:33:08

ECM fails with the mild spell , with at worst the snow line and cold air Northern England northwards and further south most of the time.

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


Yet no real cold either. Good for snow inland and higher parts of N England, southern and central Scotland. Lots of cold rain here and elsewhere.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
23 January 2021 19:40:11


 


Yet no real cold either. Good for snow inland and higher parts of N England, southern and central Scotland. Lots of cold rain here and elsewhere.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Given that the GEFS is pretty well below average for the whole run, how cold does it have to get for Aberdeen to see snow? If apparently -8C to -10C isn't enough I wonder how Aberdeen ever sees snow!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
doctormog
23 January 2021 19:44:41


 


Given that the GEFS is pretty well below average for the whole run, how cold does it have to get for Aberdeen to see snow? If apparently -8C to -10C isn't enough I wonder how Aberdeen ever sees snow!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


That would be enough but when it has been cold enough it has been dry and the seemingly ubiquitous influence of some form of easterly here has time and time again scoppers the chance of snow due to the North Sea. That doesn’t look like changing. Anything from the north and is actually cold (not a warm sector front) would also do the job. Things that a traditional winter would have and have been almost non-existent for 8 years.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
MRayner
23 January 2021 20:16:10


 


That would be enough but when it has been cold enough it has been dry and the seemingly ubiquitous influence of some form of easterly here has time and time again sCulleredo the chance of snow due to the North Sea. That doesn’t look like changing. Anything from the north and is actually cold (not a warm sector front) would also do the job. Things that a traditional winter would have and have been almost non-existent for 8 years.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

is not the approaching front in Wednesday/ Thursday that’s stalling an occlusion? I was hoping that would do the trick 🤗

Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL
doctormog
23 January 2021 20:20:13


is not the approaching front in Wednesday/ Thursday that’s stalling an occlusion? I was hoping that would do the trick 🤗


Originally Posted by: MRayner 


You’ll be fine. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
fairweather
23 January 2021 20:38:39


 


Couldn't agree more - last nights 12z and 18z shows a downward trend in the ENS Mean and today they have backed off that idea but then again we have the ECM with potential come the end and the GEM and the GFS12z control which look like southerly tracking low as well as parallel run shows several southerly tracking lows followed by an easterly in FI!? So who knows? As long as we keep some sub -10c ENS runs even in FI then I am happy. But it seems like the roller coaster of a ride will continue. One thing for sure is that this winter is far more interesting in terms of model watching that last - just a pity that none of these models have materialised. Image the amount of snow we could have already had if all the models materilaised? We would be buried with snow by now. 


 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


The problem with the GFS ens mean at the moment is it is fluctuating between the average of a large spread of basically random perturbations (12z)and ones that have a more distinct colder cluster(yest 18z) which drag the mean down. That cluster is still there but more diffuse as many perts have left it. If they return the mean will drop back. 

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Quantum
23 January 2021 21:12:40

ICON18Z is similar or maybe a modest upgrade on the ICON12Z


Its good it hasn't gone in the direction of GFS12z

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
23 January 2021 21:28:12


 


ICON 18Z definitely has the cold air further south. Scottish cental belt completely spared from the mild air entirely.


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
tallyho_83
23 January 2021 21:32:12



 


ICON 18Z definitely has the cold air further south. Scottish cental belt completely spared from the mild air entirely.


 



Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Very little difference for the south though.

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Quantum
23 January 2021 22:03:31


 


Very little difference for the south though.


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Keeping some solid snowcover in Scotland benefits all of us. Makes UK based air colder if the uppers are marginal!


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
23 January 2021 22:08:57

GFS not budging. GFS VS ICON




 


 


How you can get two such different charts at T+84h I have no idea.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
23 January 2021 22:10:52

GFSP half way house:



Such different outcomes at T+84! Its absurd!

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
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