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doctormog
27 March 2021 11:12:52

Rather extreme for April I would have thought:



tallyho_83
27 March 2021 11:37:17


Rather extreme for April I would have thought:



Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Yes - and as Moomin said - imagine that sort of set up occurring in Dec, Jan, Feb!?


I can't remember the last time we saw uppers of -10c covering a large part if not the whole country in April.


I do  remember the weekend 2nd week of April 1998 I think it was 9th-12th April 1998 when a low pressure system came in and dumped 2-3" of heavy wet snow in many south western areas - although melted within a day it was memorable: but even during that cold blast in April we never saw such cold uppers of -10c covering most of or the whole of the country: - Here is the chart 09th April 1998 - I picked at random between that time and it was memorable:



 


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gooner
27 March 2021 12:04:03


A stunning chart for sure 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Bolty
27 March 2021 12:47:37
Going off the 06Z, this could be one of the coldest first weeks of April in a good few number of years. I can't say I've ever seen charts that extreme at this time of year before - they are proper midwinter charts, not mid-spring charts. It's also been a while since I've seen a cold spell modelled from so far out.

We are due quite a cold April though, unfortunately. We've been spoilt with warm and sunny Aprils in recent years, so I suppose we can't moan that a cold one is potentially looking on the cards this year.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Quantum
27 March 2021 12:49:06

A general rule of thumb is that -14C at the T850 level guarantees an ice day regardless of the time of year.


For the extreme north we arn't that far off.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
27 March 2021 12:51:50


Christ on a bike some of these solutions are insane.


This would be a near record breaking northerly even in the heart of winter. In April I have no doubt this is a record breaker.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
27 March 2021 12:53:08

Here's another one with the -20 T850 line nearly touching shetland.



 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
27 March 2021 12:54:57

ANOTHER one with the -20C line near shetland and the -18C line to the south of it



 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
27 March 2021 12:56:37


This is beyond insane. Maxima quite widely below 0C in northern England and below -2C in the far north of Scotland.


This would easily smash the April minimax record and amazingly it does it without frontal precipitation.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
tallyho_83
27 March 2021 13:30:38



A stunning chart for sure 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Yes remarkable - however we have been spoilt by the warmer than average springs/April in particular over the past few years as Bloty agreed too.


I remember April 1996, April 1997, April 1998, April 1999 and April 2000 all delivered a northerly and snow and April 2008 and April 2009 as well as April 2010 delivered snow too. Since then Aprils have largely been above average and drier than average.


9th April 1998



13th April 1999:



13th April 2000:



6th April 2008: - I remember this as there was snow in the capital during the Olympic Torch rally in London - can anyone else remember this? Below was the weather pattern. 2cm's of snow fell on the capital early hours of Sunday 6th April.


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2008/noaa/NOAA_1_2008040606_1.png



The most closely matched similar pattern/set up to the one we may get next weekend (as the computer models are showing) is that of April 2008 in terms of where the blocking sits and that's if it verifies of course.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
27 March 2021 13:56:39

Couple of observations: first, if the cold plunge in the week after Easter happens as modelled then most of the French, German, Swiss and North Italian (and possibly Spanish) wine industry is facing another year of massive frost damage. Budburst has already happened in most regions South of Champagne and the modelled minima - let alone those in frost pockets - are hitting -4 or -5C in a number of wine regions: Burgundy and Beaujolais, Jura, Northern Rhone, Valais and Vaud, Alsace, Mosel and Rheingau, Piedmont, with less severe but still pretty bad frost around -2 to -3C in Provence and Languedoc, much of the Loire and Bordeaux. The crop in the midi could be decimated. 


Champagne and the English vineyards may be spared as budburst has been quite late because of the snow in Feb and the cold March. Still likely to be some damage though. 


Second, a few ensemble members are now avoiding the cold plunge altogether. I'm not sure it's yet 100% nailed on. Just needs the warmth to cling on a bit longer next week and then for the Northerly to topple in TWO fashion, and we end up with cool and frosty but unremarkable high pressure. It's more of a Northerly in the models now, rather than an Easterly, and they tend to be a bit less predictable in my experience.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Hungry Tiger
27 March 2021 14:37:32


Couple of observations: first, if the cold plunge in the week after Easter happens as modelled then most of the French, German, Swiss and North Italian (and possibly Spanish) wine industry is facing another year of massive frost damage. Budburst has already happened in most regions South of Champagne and the modelled minima - let alone those in frost pockets - are hitting -4 or -5C in a number of wine regions: Burgundy and Beaujolais, Jura, Northern Rhone, Valais and Vaud, Alsace, Mosel and Rheingau, Piedmont, with less severe but still pretty bad frost around -2 to -3C in Provence and Languedoc, much of the Loire and Bordeaux. The crop in the midi could be decimated. 


Champagne and the English vineyards may be spared as budburst has been quite late because of the snow in Feb and the cold March. Still likely to be some damage though. 


Second, a few ensemble members are now avoiding the cold plunge altogether. I'm not sure it's yet 100% nailed on. Just needs the warmth to cling on a bit longer next week and then for the Northerly to topple in TWO fashion, and we end up with cool and frosty but unremarkable high pressure. It's more of a Northerly in the models now, rather than an Easterly, and they tend to be a bit less predictable in my experience.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


If this cold spell verifies as it's been implied then this could cause some serious damage - That's the last thing anyone needs what with the Coronavirus Pandemic.


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


moomin75
27 March 2021 14:40:03


 


If this cold spell verifies as it's been implied then this could cause some serious damage - That's the last thing anyone needs what with the Coronavirus Pandemic.


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

You just know that it will verify almost 100%!


Why? Because noone really wants this and the law of sod will dictate that unlike in winter, these charts will be spot on. 


They look absolutely terrible for April and a lot of wildlife will be affected, not to mention the flora and fauna that will be damaged or destroyed.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
27 March 2021 14:43:10
It is highly unlikely to verify as shown in the GFS 06z op run but for information the 500-1000hPa thickness here at 228hr was a remarkable 507dam!
moomin75
27 March 2021 14:52:06

It is highly unlikely to verify as shown in the GFS 06z op run but for information the 500-1000hPa thickness here at 228hr was a remarkable 507dam!

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


That is truly unbelievable. I guess if it's going to hit us, it may as well be record breaking. Personally I want this like a bullet in the head, but what will be will be.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Retron
27 March 2021 17:36:54


 


That is truly unbelievable. I guess if it's going to hit us, it may as well be record breaking. Personally I want this like a bullet in the head, but what will be will be.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


It would probably not be record breaking even if it did reach 507dam...


http://web.archive.org/web/20040212210545/http://www.booty.demon.co.uk/tthkxtrm.htm


Even for Kent, the record in April is 510dam. That won't have happened for many a year!


I'd love to see the effects of it, mind you; strong April sunshine plus deep cold air is a recipe for some fantastic convection.


Down here the runs are see-sawing around with the extent of any cold pluming and, as usual, I'm not expecting to see anything wintry (aside from perhaps some hail if I'm really lucky). Even a frost is an outside chance as it'll just be too windy for most of the time.


I'm more interested in the wild swings in temperature next week, with the 12z GFS for MBY showing a high of 18C on Wednesday followed by a high of just 8C on Thursday as a chill NE'ly blows in. That'd be worth experiencing but I suspect it'll be moderated somewhat! The action actually happens on Wednesday evening, with 16C at 4 PM and 7C at 7 PM as the wind veers.


(EDIT: Of course, given cold air aloft a quick and shortlived swing in temperatures is quite normal for April, but this wholesale switching of airmasses is something more than that - something quite special if it comes off.)


 


Leysdown, north Kent
The Beast from the East
27 March 2021 18:26:08

GFS Control a Plant killer. insects might get the chop too. Wont complain about that!



"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
27 March 2021 19:50:27

The GFS12z has a 1104hpa greenland high.


I'm not kidding.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Ally Pally Snowman
27 March 2021 19:59:47


The GFS12z has a 1104hpa greenland high.


I'm not kidding.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Yes it seems to be producing some ridiculous extremes since the upgrade.  Other models look much more realistic. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
tallyho_83
27 March 2021 20:48:22


The GFS12z has a 1104hpa greenland high.


I'm not kidding.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I see 1080 in the control that's it!? Is the operational the new para then?


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Quantum
27 March 2021 21:46:23


 


I see 1080 in the control that's it!? Is the operational the new para then?


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/standard/greenland/sea-level-pressure/20210404-0300z.html


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Bow Echo
27 March 2021 22:02:51
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_183_mslp500.png 
1100hpa...hmmm
Steve D. FRMetS
Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants


Quantum
27 March 2021 22:04:37

I've checked on windy. The centre is actually 1107mb!


Its probably even higher than that on the 1hr charts!


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Ally Pally Snowman
27 March 2021 22:16:48


I've checked on windy. The centre is actually 1107mb!


Its probably even higher than that on the 1hr charts!


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


The record as far as I can see is only 1083mb so this is just nonsense from GFS. 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Matty H
28 March 2021 00:07:56

Excellent 18z GFS! 


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