Couple of observations: first, if the cold plunge in the week after Easter happens as modelled then most of the French, German, Swiss and North Italian (and possibly Spanish) wine industry is facing another year of massive frost damage. Budburst has already happened in most regions South of Champagne and the modelled minima - let alone those in frost pockets - are hitting -4 or -5C in a number of wine regions: Burgundy and Beaujolais, Jura, Northern Rhone, Valais and Vaud, Alsace, Mosel and Rheingau, Piedmont, with less severe but still pretty bad frost around -2 to -3C in Provence and Languedoc, much of the Loire and Bordeaux. The crop in the midi could be decimated.
Champagne and the English vineyards may be spared as budburst has been quite late because of the snow in Feb and the cold March. Still likely to be some damage though.
Second, a few ensemble members are now avoiding the cold plunge altogether. I'm not sure it's yet 100% nailed on. Just needs the warmth to cling on a bit longer next week and then for the Northerly to topple in TWO fashion, and we end up with cool and frosty but unremarkable high pressure. It's more of a Northerly in the models now, rather than an Easterly, and they tend to be a bit less predictable in my experience.
Originally Posted by: TimS