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PChattell
02 April 2021 20:08:34

Brian and the Beeb have been predicting this cold snap for the best part of ten days.


It's looking like they have got it spot on.  Well done .

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
03 April 2021 06:14:46


Brian and the Beeb have been predicting this cold snap for the best part of ten days.


It's looking like they have got it spot on.  Well done .


Originally Posted by: PChattell 


Although on the 18z GFS it seems to be more of a glancing blow than it was before. Those right on the east coast might not agree though!


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Brian Gaze
03 April 2021 09:07:54


Brian and the Beeb have been predicting this cold snap for the best part of ten days.


It's looking like they have got it spot on.  Well done .


Originally Posted by: PChattell 


 Thanks! Although it looks like things will be shifted a tad eastwards. Nonetheless, it has been well simulated by the medium range models in the last couple of weeks. A subjective view of course, but I think GFS handles the broadscale pattern across the North Atlantic very well and perhaps better than the other models.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Joe Bloggs
03 April 2021 09:14:04

Some of the automated forecasts across the northern half of Scotland look pretty snowy. 


Even low lying coastal areas and the Hebrides. Stornoway for example, snow by 7pm Easter Sunday and continuing for a while on a strong and bitter northerly. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

doctormog
03 April 2021 09:19:36


Some of the automated forecasts across the northern half of Scotland look pretty snowy. 


Even low lying coastal areas and the Hebrides. Stornoway for example, snow by 7pm Easter Sunday and continuing for a while on a strong and bitter northerly. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Yes, wintry northerlies in spring are not that unusual but the depth of cold in this one is more than is seen in the typical one. The latest GFS suite has the mean t850hPa here at -13.8°C at one point, something rarely seen in winter.


RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
03 April 2021 09:22:31

Maybe we'll get some of those visually spectacular spring convective snow showers like this...



 


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
The Beast from the East
03 April 2021 11:20:30

Still a few extreme members in the ens. I expect they will be gone by tomorrow



"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
LeedsLad123
03 April 2021 13:12:05
Looks much less awful now thankfully. One day with a high of 5C, a couple of air frosts, then recovering to 9C (which is still a bit below average but nothing noteworthy).
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
speckledjim
03 April 2021 16:22:43

Looks much less awful now thankfully. One day with a high of 5C, a couple of air frosts, then recovering to 9C (which is still a bit below average but nothing noteworthy).

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


 pointless spell of weather IMO. Sunshine and warmth is all I want from here on in....


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
doctormog
03 April 2021 16:34:13
Pointless indeed but what can you do. Sub 510dam air, -14Β°C t850hPa, gale force northerly winds and snow showers should make things feel a bit chilly here I would imagine.

It is a marked and unwelcome contrast to today which I have spent largely in the garden and at the beach.
moomin75
03 April 2021 16:47:11
What I'd love to know, is why (apart from the law of Sod) has this cold spell been so well modelled from so far out. The charts started picking this up over 10 days ago, and its been resolute throughout.
In the winter, they never verify so far out, but this was modelled to bear perfect 10 days out. I know the Atlantic tends to be quieter in April than it is in December/January, but how can the models have got this spot on at such a long range? Is it simply the weakening Polar Vortex or some other explanation?
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
03 April 2021 16:57:07
As Brian says I think the GFS handles these types of scenarios pretty well it’s just that we don’t get that many of them. Also perhaps at this time of the year we (or at least most of us) are not scanning the charts as closely for cold scenarios and they may get only passing interest until they come into the more reliable range rather than tracked for weeks out.
Retron
03 April 2021 17:53:28


 


 pointless spell of weather IMO. Sunshine and warmth is all I want from here on in....


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Not pointless at all IMO, but I love cold weather any time of year. As a bonus, it'll keep the North Sea that little bit cooler too, which will have a knock-on effect later in the year (those sea breezes in summer, for example). Win-win for me!


I'm not expecting snow here (it's exceptionally rare in April), but the low dewpoints with a gusty wind will be worth experiencing... even the usually conservative Met Office automated goes for -8C dewpoints, which is very rare here.


There should be some fantastic convection and some lucky areas will experience the very best April has to offer, namely warm sunshine and blue skies switching to snow and near-freezing temperatures, swifly followed by more warm sunshine.


Leysdown, north Kent
nsrobins
03 April 2021 21:56:58



It is a marked and unwelcome contrast to today which I have spent largely in the garden and at the beach.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


At the same time? πŸ˜‰ I heard your garden was long but that’s impressive πŸ˜…


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Tim A
03 April 2021 21:59:44
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gfjten772#?date=2021-04-06 

Great forecast for inland NE Scotland, Tomintoul -5c with snow at times, very impressive for any time of year.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

Β My PWS 
tallyho_83
03 April 2021 23:06:11

What I'd love to know, is why (apart from the law of Sod) has this cold spell been so well modelled from so far out. The charts started picking this up over 10 days ago, and its been resolute throughout.
In the winter, they never verify so far out, but this was modelled to bear perfect 10 days out. I know the Atlantic tends to be quieter in April than it is in December/January, but how can the models have got this spot on at such a long range? Is it simply the weakening Polar Vortex or some other explanation?

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


Yes sods law Moomin. I bet you any GFS chart like that 10 days away in the winter would be downgraded. As for this it has as you said been consistent for over a week now and if anything it's upgrading. The 18z ENS 850s mean for London is  -11.6c.😳


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
04 April 2021 07:59:43

Pretty cold for the near continent too, and this morning it’s looking more persistent again.


Take a look at these minima:



And this morning’s GFS even gives some snow to the Rhine valley. Look at the depths, and the daytime maxima!




That’s not just the mountains: we’re talking lowland snow cover, and deep snow at that, from Dijon to Valence.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
The Beast from the East
04 April 2021 08:25:26

a few ens still giving the magic purples and only hours away


 



"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
04 April 2021 10:07:30

Still cant rule out the magic -20 hitting the UK even at this late stage



"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
04 April 2021 10:09:35

Pert 16 has the finger of Satan blasting down through Doc in Aberdeen


 



"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
04 April 2021 10:11:48

I think Q has hacked into the GFS. Much colder set of ens in the short term


-20 possible even down here on this one!


 



"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
04 April 2021 10:14:41

The Op has another cold weekend next week



"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
04 April 2021 10:40:54

-20 still on the GEFS!



Never seen it at 18h before!


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Joe Bloggs
04 April 2021 11:04:38

If Michael and Richard don’t wake up to a decent covering of snow tomorrow it’s time to officially give up. πŸ˜€



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Crepuscular Ray
04 April 2021 11:08:25
I love cold April convective days. Sunlit white cumulonimbus anvils marching south with dark bases and shafts of soft hail or snow lit by the sun.

I remember an April day in the early 70's in a northerly, walking up to the top of Otley Chevin in Yorkshire in the strong morning sun with my pal, we were 13 or 14. We were greeted at the summit with the above sight coming in from the north Pennines. It was a monster, mature cumulonimbus.

We started off home quickly with a huge wall of sunlit snow approaching from behind. As it reached us you could see the huge flakes falling well before they fell on us.

It was a white out within minutes as the temperature fell from 6 C to zero. It lasted an hour and put down 3 ins. We were freezing cold, plastered in snow and so glad to get home, needless to say we hadn't been suitably dressed!
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

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