The 16-dayer while not dire has stepped back from real warmth over UK (the warmth has moved across to the Baltic) and both weeks look a little damper than they did yesterday, though the really heavy rain is over SE Europe and in week 2 , the Balkans.
GFS - the N-S ridge of HP moves in to the UK this week and topples over Norway Mon 31st. Then Lp moves up from Biscay to link with LP on the Atlantic to sit off NW Scotland Sat 5th with a generally W-ly flow to the weather. Azores HP the shows up Tue 8th, standing off to the SW at first but by Fri 11th forming a strong ridge across UK
GEFS -agreement in temp runs to Tue 1st by which time increased to a little above norm, continuing with most runs about seasonal average and the mean buoyed up by a number of warm outliers. Op and control are pessimists today. Dry to the 1st, a showery pattern thereafter but no great amounts of rain in S (bar the odd rogue spike), rather more in N.
ECM - as GFS to Tue 1st, but the Biscay LP never really links with Atlantic so maintains a warm S-ly as it moves up to Ireland Thu 3rd; and is still hanging around over SW Britain Sun 6th with HP to the NE
EDIT - compared to yesterday's forecasts, ECM and GFS have swapped with each other.
Edited by user
27 May 2021 07:23:25
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Reason: Not specified
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Chichester 12m asl