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Brian Gaze
26 May 2021 17:05:53

GEM is at 138 on TWO.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
moomin75
26 May 2021 17:10:42


 


The GFS has consistently been showing warm and settled weather for a period of days, so you’d agree that is good? I still only see the GEM chart to 108hr for the 12z run?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

No it hasn't, not really. It has been solid for the last 2 days I think, but not a number of days. The ECM was the most consistent in getting the upcoming spell right though.


Anyway, GEM hasnt refreshed so its still rolling out.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Polar Low
26 May 2021 17:13:04

0z wasn’t bad either certain to feel very pleasant with what we’ve had


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gem&var=202&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1


GEM is at 138 on TWO.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Brian Gaze
26 May 2021 17:16:37


No it hasn't, not really. It has been solid for the last 2 days I think, but not a number of days. The ECM was the most consistent in getting the upcoming spell right though.


Anyway, GEM hasnt refreshed so its still rolling out.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I think the different resolution GEM datasets may be published at different times, unlike GFS where they appear more or less together. In the past I've seen comments about GEM where it is clear the person doesn't know which update he is looking at. Anyway, it's looking very warm or even "h**" on Tuesday.


 



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
26 May 2021 17:21:01


No it hasn't, not really. It has been solid for the last 2 days I think, but not a number of days. The ECM was the most consistent in getting the upcoming spell right though.


Anyway, GEM hasnt refreshed so its still rolling out.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


So, the 12z wasn’t out when you commented that it was consistent this afternoon?The GFS has been pretty consistent nd has been showing the nicer weekend weather for some time. There is a consensus for a significant improvement in the weather and the vast majority of output supports that.


Ally Pally Snowman
26 May 2021 17:44:27

GEM has finally updated and it's a good run high pressure back in charge by the end


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Downpour
26 May 2021 18:48:59
The most consistent model out there globally is the MFS. It has been absolutely unwavering on a cool and unsettled picture since November 2015.
Chingford
London E4
147ft
moomin75
26 May 2021 18:52:29

The most consistent model out there globally is the MFS. It has been absolutely unwavering on a cool and unsettled picture since November 2015.

Originally Posted by: Downpour 


🤣🤣🤣 Fair comment. I have been well and truly owned by that comment.


Wonder if the man who has my cartoon Ark is still around.?


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
26 May 2021 18:59:31
A decent 12z ECM op run to add to the collection.
moomin75
26 May 2021 19:15:25

A decent 12z ECM op run to add to the collection.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Its reasonably good yes. A settled spell is more likely than not, I must admit.


 


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
26 May 2021 19:27:38
Good virus killing conditions on all the models thus evening.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
cultman1
26 May 2021 19:31:20
'Flaming June' is going to be a magnet for weather model watchers in the weeks ahead with warm and settled conditions so desired after the recent cold and wet spell. At least the current model runs are showing promise.....
moomin75
26 May 2021 19:35:31

A decent 12z ECM op run to add to the collection.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Just for balance, there's one or two HUGE rainfall spikes on the GEFS.


OK, I'll get my coat! 🤣😊🤣😅


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Taylor1740
26 May 2021 19:56:42
ECM just about clinging on to a very decent next week, although not exactly a heatwave, should make a nice change from what we have had.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Downpour
26 May 2021 20:09:17


 


🤣🤣🤣 Fair comment. I have been well and truly owned by that comment.


Wonder if the man who has my cartoon Ark is still around.?


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


👍fair play to you! 


Chingford
London E4
147ft
xioni2
26 May 2021 20:42:38

A decent 12z ECM op run to add to the collection.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Its ensemble is very warm and mostly dry all the way to the 10th of June. It supports ~30C in the SE at the end of next week.


 

idj20
26 May 2021 22:57:13


 


🤣🤣🤣 Fair comment. I have been well and truly owned by that comment.


Wonder if the man who has my cartoon Ark is still around.?


Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Say no more . . . 


Folkestone Harbour. 
moomin75
27 May 2021 05:27:19




Say no more . . . 


Originally Posted by: idj20 

Haha. Thank you. May not need it for a few days.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 May 2021 05:29:45




Say no more . . . 


Originally Posted by: idj20 

   Moomin will at least admit when he’s wrong. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
moomin75
27 May 2021 05:42:51


   Moomin will at least admit when he’s wrong. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 

I will, but that time isn't here yet. GEM looks pretty ropey today, UKMO is less good than yesterday and GFS has also backtracked on a long dry spell.


Nothing nailed on yet.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
27 May 2021 06:51:08

Scorchio ECM this morning easily 30c by 216h . 15c 850s in the south.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
27 May 2021 06:57:59


Scorchio ECM this morning easily 30c by 216h . 15c 850s in the south.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

And on this run, it goes bang at the end. What's not to like about that? 


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
27 May 2021 07:01:06

The 16-dayer while not dire has stepped back from real warmth over UK (the warmth has moved across to the Baltic) and both weeks look a little damper than they did yesterday, though the really heavy  rain is over SE Europe and in week 2 , the Balkans.


GFS - the N-S ridge of HP moves in to the UK this week and topples over Norway Mon 31st. Then Lp moves up from Biscay to link with LP on the Atlantic to sit off NW Scotland Sat 5th with a generally W-ly flow to the weather. Azores HP the shows up Tue 8th, standing off to the SW at first but by Fri 11th forming a strong ridge across UK


GEFS -agreement in temp runs to Tue 1st  by which time increased to a little above norm, continuing with most runs about seasonal average and the mean buoyed up by a number of warm outliers. Op and control are pessimists today. Dry to the 1st, a showery pattern thereafter but no great amounts of rain in S (bar the odd rogue spike), rather more in N. 


ECM - as GFS to Tue 1st, but the Biscay LP never really links with Atlantic so maintains a warm S-ly as it moves up to Ireland Thu 3rd; and is still hanging around over SW Britain Sun 6th with HP to the NE


 


EDIT - compared to yesterday's forecasts, ECM and GFS have swapped with each other. 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Jiries
27 May 2021 07:08:18


Scorchio ECM this morning easily 30c by 216h . 15c 850s in the south.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Very much welcome to see warm to hot weather and that normal for summer season.

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