theweatheroutlook

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GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
27 May 2021 08:06:49


Scorchio ECM this morning easily 30c by 216h . 15c 850s in the south.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Not surprisingly it's at the top end of the ENS but still shows the potential.

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
27 May 2021 08:07:50


I will, but that time isn't here yet. GEM looks pretty ropey today, UKMO is less good than yesterday and GFS has also backtracked on a long dry spell.


Nothing nailed on yet.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I don't think anybody is predicting a long dry spell. It's just good to get some warmth!

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Tom Oxon
27 May 2021 08:58:52
Stonking ECM Op this morning,

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_192_1.png 

Pretty strong support, with a pulse of warm coming from Iberia on the ensemble mean

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecmens/00_192_mslp850.png 

There's a note of caution from GFS, which has something a little more westerly based at T192 on its Op, but the mean at around 8-10 days still brings in solid height rises from the SW:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU00_216_1.png 

No 2018 yet, but notably warm compared to Spring.
S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
Hippydave
27 May 2021 10:16:14

ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Tunbridge Wells District | Meteologix.com


T2m max temps for my neck of the woods for the ECM.


Warm but not looking like it'll be 'hot' with top of the ens just below 27c for a day but that's one run at the top of the pack, most are cooler (some noticeably so).  Note the operational is towards the top of the pack albeit not without at least some support.


ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Tunbridge Wells District | Meteologix.com


Rainfall is shown to be limited/unlikely until Thursday next week where a few members show some rain although they're in the minority.


 


So generally fine and relatively warm looks likely IMBY for the next week or so, with temps maybe nudging mid 20's for a day or two, maybe a bit longer if things fall in to place. Compared to the last 2 months today feels borderline tropical so I imagine it'll feel very pleasant in to next week. 


 


 

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
moomin75
27 May 2021 10:40:44
GFS 6Z is very quick to bring back the unsettled.
Second run in a row to look more unsettled, so probably a new trend again.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Rob K
27 May 2021 11:06:01

GFS 6Z is very quick to bring back the unsettled.
Second run in a row to look more unsettled, so probably a new trend again.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Yes after a brief warm up the blue/green upper air colours just stick to the UK like a limpet way out into June. Had enough of the chill now!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Jiries
27 May 2021 11:20:08


 


Yes after a brief warm up the blue/green upper air colours just stick to the UK like a limpet way out into June. Had enough of the chill now!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Better this way for FI so we get better weather extending like this unsettled cold spell had been persisting while warm and settled was stuck in FI so now it their turn to be opposite so not worried about the FI range.  Looking forward to some very warm weather next week.

Ally Pally Snowman
27 May 2021 16:49:43

Excellent 12s especially GEM and UKMO.  Both look like a lengthy very warm spell. GFS has a mini breakdown 168 ish but soon brings the high pressure back.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
27 May 2021 17:08:47

GEM really is a scorcher 29c for Wednesday.  


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gem&var=5&run=12&time=147&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Downpour
27 May 2021 17:30:22
Some silly temps being progged now on some models (eg GEM). Won’t happen IMO. Just nice late spring weather, the better the further south and east you are.
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Polar Low
27 May 2021 17:50:57

Yes I agree a bit OT but I can’t believe how pleasant it has felt outside in the sunshine today at just 18c 


 


Some silly temps being progged now on some models (eg GEM). Won’t happen IMO. Just nice late spring weather, the better the further south and east you are.

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

moomin75
27 May 2021 18:34:32


GEM really is a scorcher 29c for Wednesday.  


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gem&var=5&run=12&time=147&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

GFS remains the fly in the ointment. All other models are increasingly warm. Will GFS be nearest to the mark? My money is on yes, but hoping not.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
27 May 2021 18:37:50


GFS remains the fly in the ointment. All other models are increasingly warm. Will GFS be nearest to the mark? My money is on yes, but hoping not.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


If my memory serves me correctly, over the last few days you have suggested that the ECM, GEM, UKMO and GFS options are most likely to come to fruition. The only commonality has been that the choice depended on which one showed the least settled/coolest option.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
moomin75
27 May 2021 18:38:56


 


If my memory serves me correctly, over the last few days you have suggested that the ECM, GEM, UKMO and GFS options are most likely to come to fruition. The only commonality has been that the choice depended on which one showed the least settled/coolest option.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I always plump for the one that shows least settled yes. Because that is the most likely scenario. However, it looks a bit on its own at the moment, so hopefully the Euros and the GEM are closer to the mark.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
ballamar
27 May 2021 18:43:43
Is this you Moomin?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KRPcssq-7Us
moomin75
27 May 2021 18:45:54

Is this you Moomin?
Originally Posted by: ballamar 

">https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KRPcssq-7Us


😅😅 That's me!

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
27 May 2021 19:02:50

Very warm/ hot ECM.  


The French furnace is back. Mid 30s there , high 20s here.


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=16&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
27 May 2021 19:05:00


Very warm/ hot ECM.  


The French furnace is back. Mid 30s there , high 20s here.


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=16&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yep, a scorching run with just a touch of instability to offer some late storms. This would be (for me) the ideal run. Hot all day with late storms. Perfick.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
ballamar
27 May 2021 19:31:34
ECM perfect example of how things are changing from a cool May to near 30 in the blink of an eye. No heat build up to get these temps now
Downpour
27 May 2021 20:29:52


I always plump for the one that shows least settled yes. Because that is the most likely scenario. However, it looks a bit on its own at the moment, so hopefully the Euros and the GEM are closer to the mark.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


😂Evidence required!

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Sevendust
27 May 2021 22:12:42

Certainly ECM starting to show some very thundery conditions.


Assuming things can remain more settled we will easily get into the mid 20's C next week down here given the above average uppers

moomin75
27 May 2021 22:21:56
GFS maintaining its consistent trend of turning unsettled quite quickly. I think tomorrow's runs will set the tone for a more changeable and cooler outlook.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
27 May 2021 22:24:21

Deleted.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Downpour
27 May 2021 22:44:59

GFS maintaining its consistent trend of turning unsettled quite quickly. I think tomorrow's runs will set the tone for a more changeable and cooler outlook.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


This is rather like escaping the Minotaur in the maze, Kieren. If you keep turning in the same direction repeatedly you will theoretically eventually emerge from the labyrinth.


Do this all summer, and by the time it chucks it down on 22 September you can claim victory.

Chingford
London E4
147ft
moomin75
28 May 2021 06:27:13

GFS remains more unsettled on the 0z and ECM 850s are much lower than were being shown yesterday. The backtrack continues.


GEM still flying the flag for serious heat though.


Who knows what next week will bring?

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

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