A spell of very pleasant weather 

Height anomaly (GEFS) for days 5 to 10. A pattern like that (southerly airflow with NW/SE aligned trough to the west) would bring warm, potentially heavy shower potential so while it could be unsettled, it would be in a sort of good way. 

16-dayer still not convinced for serious warmth even in week 1, though it should be pleasant enough in the sunshine. Still some rain around. Met O UKV however showing mid-20s through next week except for a fringe down the East Coast.

Jetstream only fragmentary around Britain to Tue 8th, after which it runs from the W across the UK for the rest of that week.

GFS - HP establishes over the weekend from Azores to Norway before settling over Norway 1035mb Wed 2nd which combined with LP 1000mb in SW approaches gives brisk SE-lies over UK. The LP moves closer Sat 5th, briefly, but HP equally briefly comes in from the SW Tue 8th, closely followed by significant Atlantic LP which ends up over Scotland 985mb Fri 11th and SW-lies for all. An even deeper  LP 970mb Sun 13th mid-Atlantic may pump up some warmth from the S.

GEFS - temp near seasonal norm now and around Sun 6th, somewhat above Thu 3rd and 10th but with increasing uncertainty. Dry at first, bits and pieces of rain from Thu 3rd onwards, more in N than S. 

ECM - similar pattern to GFS but overall pressure higher and temps warmer

Looks pretty decent for virtually all of Scotland for next week according to what I have just seen on the BBC site, Michael.

Good output again this morning,  looks like warm and settled to about day 5/6 then perhaps more unsettled but staying warm like GFS op. Or becoming very warm and thundery like most of the other output. I'd put the odds on becoming very warm and thundery at about 75% this morning. 

Perhaps David thanks, and I hope they’re right . I am very wary of any SEly influence. Hopefully today will not be representative of the coming few days. With a bit of luck it will just be the immediate coastline affected.

Agreed. Generally warm and unsettled looks like the theme today. 

Having said that the ECM mean looks solidly settled again by 192h. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=192&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Although GFS is not particularly warm. 16-17c after a few warmer days. Nothing great at all.

Time to reduce my visits to the Moomin show.   Whats on telly?

It really isn't just me that is correctly reading the backtrack in the models. Just because you don't like the narrative doesn't mean it's not right to post it.

Hopefully the 12z runs will follow the warmer and drier than average outlook from the GFS 00z op run:

Good set of 12s. All very similar 4ish settled warm days then a thundery breakdown for a couple of days then high pressure takes over again.  max temps probably  25c - 27c in  the south. 

yep also very nice ecm mean this evening 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

doesn’t mean it is going to happen. The SE could well remain very warm and dry

Outlook remains good this morning especially for the EA and SE. Should see mid 20s,   a thundery breakdown followed by high pressure reasserting control. 

Yep, looks generally OK to me too in the semi-reliable timeframe.

16-day forecast still reluctant to let the warm weather get across the Channel/N Sea. Scandinavia getting definitely warm in week 2; to compensate, there's still a cold patch around the Alps. A big patch of rain in E Europe and another coming in from the NW in week 2. UK interestingly showing inland rain for both weeks - more thundery showers?

GFS as yesterday with current ridge of HP moving to and settling over Scandi Wed 2nd combined with LP in Sw approaches giving SE-lies for UK; that LP and the HP dance around each other for a week or so, hence a rather confused pressure pattern until the Atlantic takes a hand , deep LP off N Ireland Fri 11th drifting NE-wards before the last frame Mon 14th shows HP re-establishing from the S.

GEFS - short burst of moderate warmth Wed 2nd, after which the usual scramble around the seasonal norm or just above persists to Mon 14th, dry for a few days then irregular amounts of rain in different runs from Thu 3rd onwards. 

ECM - that LP in the SW approaches is more of a feature and drifts up to Scotland by Fri 4th; the indeterminate period is then shorter as a new HP centre begins to drift in from the Atlantic Tue 8th

Models continue to show a rather changeable and at times pretty cool start to June. Not the long dry spell people were hoping for. Not a washout by any means, but certainly not great.

GEFS 12z for London mean is just about above average throughout. Not especially wet either.

ECM op looks thundery/showery