Tomas Sch... you know who suggesting some thundery stuff on Wednesday from LP in the SW, and perhaps more storms drifting up from the Continent later

A very warm week in store for many with the risk of thundery weather breaking out from midweek. Emphasis seems to have switched more to prolonging the warmth with the cut off low stationed more to the west allowing for a continental flow. 

Warmth and humidity will be the buzz words for the week. 

Yes, it looks great for most places in the outlook, albeit with the risk of a few storms around. 

The wind direction, or what there is of it is worrying for her, yet again. Seeing “but still rather cool where it stays dull in the east.” in the forecasts does not inspire me.

Whatever happened to prevailing SWlies?

I won't be convinced until Moomin disappears from this thread :)

Hot GFS op this morning easily 30c on a couple of days, looks a bit out of kilter with most of its ensembles though sadly.  A reasonable GEFS though warm mainly dry.

ECM op warm mainly dry some thundery weather around at times. Pretty good

The 3rd certainly seems to be a 'crunch' date. Before that everything's very tight, thereafter a lot of divergence. Will it be a thundery breakdown or just a few thunderstorms and then returning to warm/hot conditions?

That looks nice It looks like widespread cross model support for a warm week to 10 days ahead and a good start to summer,albeit some thundery showers increasingly likely towards the end of the week. I think we all deserve this after the utter grim spring and its really pleasant to feel warmth in the air at long last.

Yes indeed, I've noticed their absence as well, for quite a while now - possibly a few years since we've had a prolonged spell of prevailing SW winds.

Some interesting variations from Wednesday onwards. MetO keeps the dry and warm/hot weather going; FAX and BBC bring in a low on Wednesday which looks very wet and thundery over the S & W (even if as Dr M says the flow off the N Sea isn't good for the E Coast);; the 16-dayer has relented and now gives the UK some heat in week 1 (and not bad in week 2) but heavy rain less inland than yesterday, now forecast to be fringing the S coast; UKV no rain but a cool-down after Wed.

For the main models:

GFS - an area of HP from Azores to Norway generally persists through to Tue 15th but with occasional mini-breakdowns as thundery LPs from Europe drift N-wards and fizzle out (Thu 3rd, Sun 6th, Wed 9th). Some more activity on Atlantic at end of run but not yet close to UK.

GEFS - 5C or so above norm for Wed 2nd after which most runs briefly back to norm but then increasingly above norm (up to 3-4C at end) though with a significant number of hot outliers at any time. Rain frequent but irregular after Wed.

ECM - follows GFS with minor variations in the continental LP (e.g. pressure still high on Wed 9th)

There some support for a heatwave and we over due for one so we see next few runs to see if more members going toward 15C line.  

UKV has 28C on Wed.

Indian variant will like that

6z GFS is another very warm mainly settled run. 

It eventually finishes 1976 esque. BANK!

Well the 6z GEFS ramps up the heat even more. Some genuine heatwaves in there.

Something good I hope.

Do you live near a brewery?

28C being shown as soon as Wednesday.

You have forecasted 27 of the last two unsettled spells.