I have a fairly close friend who lives in East Lothian which is in the red warning area (here in NW Edinburgh, we are just to the west of that, but in the amber warning area), so I am a bit concerned about what it will be like there.

Furthermore, I can see across to East Lothian from my east facing living roon and bedroom and so far as I know, I think that this is the closest which we have come to being in a red warning area for anything since we were in that red warning for snow during the Beast from the East event back in February/March 2018, so that tells you just nasty this situation is.

As this is the media thread, worth noting the difference in quality of forecast between the BBC forecast and that by Alex Deakin of the Met Office on YouTube.

Absolutely no doubt left as to the dangerous potential of Arwen by Alex. A very good step by step summary of which risks were affecting where and when.

“Please don’t be tempted to take photos of the waves, it will be exceptionally dangerous!”

Unambiguous. 

Wednesday 1 Dec - Friday 10 Dec

Windy day with sunshine and showers on Wednesday, possibly heavy and wintry in the north and west. Winds remaining fresh. Potential for more potent low pressure systems to develop into the weekend, bringing temperatures changing between mild and cold, with a risk of widespread frost in the cold periods. Occasionally windy. Continually unsettled through the rest of this period with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed with brighter interludes accompanied with showers. Likely the wettest conditions to be in the west and northwest, and calmer conditions in the south towards the end of the period. Often windy with a risk of gales at times, especially in the north and northwest. Temperatures likely milder than of late, with the potential for brief colder interludes between systems.

Saturday 11 Dec - Saturday 25 Dec

Overall, through this period it is expected to be unsettled and changeable with milder and wetter than average conditions for most, bringing a risk of stormy conditions. Perhaps turning more settled in southern regions for a time nearer the start of this period, which will increase the risk of frost and fog when skies clear overnight. Temperatures on the milder side for much of this period, but some short lived colder spells are possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

They used that during last winter.

Not sure what has happened to the Met Office with regards to their text forecasts. For instance, they went for "widely frosty" for NW England this morning but any amateur interested in the weather could tell that a frost forming was going to be a problem in this wind.

" 

This Evening and Tonight:

Storm Arwen brings strengthening winds, with severe gales along coasts and over high ground overnight. A band of rain spreads southwards through the night, falling as snow over high ground and potentially sleet for lower levels. Widely frosty. Minimum temperature -1 °C."

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Becoming milder after Storm Arwen clears

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

... then no doubt that it will ne normal service resumed with the usual warmup once we get into the actual meteorological winter.

The BBC weather man this morning, Sunday 28th Nov., commented about the showers in East Anglia which could be wintry/snowy, even on low ground.

Question: What contitutes high ground in East Anglia?

Baffling there isn't a warning for ice over low ground of NW England after this afternoon

Met office 3-month contingency planners November update

December to February

• Mild conditions are around twice as likely as normal


• A cold winter is about half as likely as normal


• Impacts from cold weather are still likely


• Chances of a wet winter are slightly higher than usual


• Moderate increase in the potential for impacts from strong winds later in the period

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-djfv1secure.pdf

Winter 2021/2022 forecast issued from TWO:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Interesting that Brian has gone for a colder than average winter overall. IIRC there haven't been many occasions when he had predicted a winter to be colder than average (I recall he did so in 2009/10 and was proved correct) and from what I recall of recent years, he has been fairly accurate with his winter seasoanal forcasts more often than not.

Very interesting , BG wouldn't call that lightly , I thinks Gavs Vids will follow suit tomorrow also 

According to the Met Office, Northern Ireland has just had its warmest autumn on record as shown here.

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet & windy; Calmer from mid-December

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Net Weather also going for a colder than average Winter ........could be an interesting one 

A largely unsettled start to the period, with showers likely for most and a chance of snow across northern Scotland. Showers, as well as some longer spells of rain continuing into Wednesday with blustery winds, particularly over high ground. These unsettled conditions are likely to continue for the rest of the period with longer spells of rain affecting most of the country, with the potential to turn heavy in southern areas. Following these periods of rain, showery conditions are likely, with a chance of snow even at lower elevations. Feeling cold in the north, with the potential to spread further south at times. Towards the end of the period, more settled conditions likely with mild temperatures, but the chance of some cold interludes bringing a risk of frost.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Fri 3 Dec 2021

Looking better 

Wednesday 8 Dec - Friday 17 Dec

A largely unsettled start to the period, with showers likely for most and a chance of snow across northern Scotland. Showers, as well as some longer spells of rain continuing into Wednesday with blustery winds, particularly over high ground. These unsettled conditions are likely to continue for the rest of the period with longer spells of rain affecting most of the country, with the potential to turn heavy in southern areas. Following these periods of rain, showery conditions are likely, with a chance of snow even at lower elevations. Feeling cold in the north, with the potential to spread further south at times. Towards the end of the period, more settled conditions likely with mild temperatures, but the chance of some cold interludes bringing a risk of frost.

Saturday 18 Dec - Saturday 1 Jan

Getting into the Christmas period, it is likely to be milder than earlier in the month, with temperatures near to above normal, although some colder spells remain possible. It is likely to become more settled around Christmas and towards New Year with increased chance of overnight frost and fog during clearer spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC1 local news (Bristol and West area) 6:30pm

Mentioned Tuesday / Wednesday and showed pressure charts for European model, Met office, and GFS saying about wind, and how lows in different place.

Very informative by Ian Ferguson 

59 mph gusts, heavy snow and “feels like” -17C. Nice!

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet & windy at times; calmer from mid-December

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

I'm not surprised that it was Met Éireann who have named this particular storm as all of the model output until now has been pointing towards the worst hit areas being over in the Republic of Ireland and since it was the UK Met Office who officially named Storm Arwen, yhis makes it honours even on that front at the moment.

In addition to that, all of the Coronation Street fans out there will no doubt be interested to know that the next named storm after that will be known as Storm Corrie and given the latest model output, even that might not be all that far away.