Generally the chart data goes with the current (previous run) model data and doesn’t attract too much intervention. It’s often been at odds with the spoken forecast let alone the latest model data.

That said those maxima look about right for Xmas Eve based on blend of 00Z and 06Z output.

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Low pressure likely to continue to be positioned to the south of the UK, and high pressure further north. This results in a boundary between colder air to the north and milder air in the south. Unsettled weather results, with increased cloud amounts, occasional rain and some stronger winds, fluctuating north to south through the initial period. Rain may turn wintry at times on the northern edge, most likely across central and northern areas, and mainly over higher ground. Milder temperatures more likely in the south, with brighter colder conditions in the north with some wintry showers. Settled conditions look likely to return towards the end of December into the New Year with temperatures likely rather cold and the potential for overnight frost and an increasing risk of fog.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Sun 19 Dec 2021

 

Any unsettled conditions during the start of the New Year are most likely to be confined to west and south-western regions, where longer spells of rain, and perhaps areas of snow, are possible with occasional strong winds. Through January, cold air is signalled to develop and remain in place across parts of Europe. From here, there is a chance that an easterly wind could bring periods of cold weather, and associated wintry hazards, to the UK. Milder spells are still likely, with these potentially bringing strong winds, heavy rain, and potential snow. Overall, the period is slightly more likely to be colder than normal although a lot of uncertainty surrounds this.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Sat 18 Dec 2021

Seems so much uncertainty 

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Dazza on Countryfile saying so much uncertainty, forecast ‘not worth it’

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Forecast for Christmas Day not worth it. He didn't refuse to tell us what the weather would be for the next few days before then.

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Which is all the majority are interested in currently and tuned in for…

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BBC Monthly Outlook updated: - At least they're honest re the models not performing so well:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monthly Outlook

 Last updated 15:52 GMT on Sunday 19 December

Summary

An unsettled first week, then improving for all

After a settled dry weekend, Christmas week looks mostly dry and calm for all regions for the first half of the week then wetter and windier for most parts over the latter half. In the last week of the year, the unsettled conditions should soon clear with a trend to a drier, slightly cool pattern. The first week of 2022 should see the settled pattern continue over most of the country, before we return to a more seasonal pattern as we head towards mid-January.

 

Saturday 18 Decemberto – Sunday 26 December

More unsettled from mid-week

High pressure will be stationed over the British Isles at first this weekend. By Sunday and through the working week, the high declines as low-pressure systems move east towards the western British Isles bringing some weather fronts to the country from mid-week. The entire country should remain under dry and settled conditions over this weekend and into the working week. Fog is likely in places. Temperatures around 1-2C above average are expected this weekend before falling 1-2C below average into the working week. From mid-week, it should get cloudier for most with a series of weather fronts bringing periods of rain across the country. Christmas weekend is looking on the cool side and a little breezy with periods of rain over the south of the country and wintry showers possible for Scotland. Temperatures of 2C below average are expected over the weekend.

Monday 27 Decemberto – Sunday 2 January

Becoming more settled again. On the cool side

Over the last week of the year, any unsettled weather should soon clear as high pressure builds over Northwest Europe towards Iceland. Low pressure is favoured across Southern Europe and west of Iberia. After an unsettled start to the week, perhaps with further wintry showers over Scotland, a trend towards a drier pattern is anticipated, especially across the western and northern half of the country. Some sunny days are likely. We will have the risk of fog forming in the early mornings and at this time of the year, any fog could be slow to lift. Most areas should be slightly cooler than average although Northern Ireland could be nearer average. Over the New Year's weekend, conditions are looking to remain settled for most parts.
The models are not performing well this far ahead, so things are far from certain. If the high is favoured further south over Iberia. The Atlantic storm tracks affect northwest Europe bringing more unsettled conditions to the country. We estimate this as a 30% risk at this time.

Monday 3 Januaryto – Sunday 16 January

The settled pattern becomes more seasonal

For week one of 2022, high pressure is favoured over northwest Europe and across the Northern Atlantic. Lower pressure lies over Southern Europe. The trend towards a dry pattern continues, but eastern coastal areas may see a more normal pattern. Near-average temperatures in Ireland and Scotland, just below average elsewhere. Into the second week of January, ¬confidence is getting very low. At the moment we favour a change with high pressure further south over the Azores and lower pressure nearer Iceland. This would bring a seasonal pattern with no extremes. Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland would see the most of any rain or wind. The pattern is uncertain during these last two weeks with the models not performing well. Should the high become stationed further away from the country, say over Scandinavia, cooler conditions are likely.

Further ahead

Is there any sign of a cold winter period ahead towards the end of January? We should probably look at what the Polar Vortex is suggesting.

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Strange use of the word 'seasonal'. In my book, seasonal weather in winter would mean cold with fog, frost or snow. The BBC are defining it as generally mild and unsettled. I suppose that is the more typical weather in winter!?

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They say "At the moment we favour a change with high pressure further south over the Azores and lower pressure nearer Iceland. This would bring a seasonal pattern with no extremes. Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland would see the most of any rain or wind."

In other words typical pressure patterns for winter which for gives milder SW winds for the UK, with higher pressure making it more settled in the SE and less settled in the NW.

Cold easterlies, or even cold anticyclonic conditions, are not really typical seasonal weather for the UK however much we wish they were. But I agree it is a strange choice of words as most people would imagine "seasonal winter weather" to mean something colder.

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Saturday 25 Dec - Monday 3 Jan

This period remains somewhat uncertain in detail, but generally sees a split between colder air to the north and milder air to the south. Along the boundary, rain, with a risk of snow, predominantly across higher ground. To the south of this, mild, unsettled weather, with rain and occasional strong winds. To the north more settled conditions; brighter spells, with some wintry showers, mainly in the north and northeast, and feeling very cold in brisk northeasterly winds. Towards the end of the period potentially an interlude of more widely settled conditions, bringing colder, frosty weather. Maybe a risk of rain and snow with stronger winds arriving from the southwest later. Becoming colder than average heading into January with any unsettled, milder spells most likely for the west and south.

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Surprisingly bullish forecast from the Met for colder weather heading into January!👍👍

Interesting Update for the better - however I am not buying it just yet given we don't know how Xmas day will pan out and the models are really struggling!

Over the past 1-2 weeks the met were constantly banging on about it being milder further north and west and coldest weather in the south with temperatures remaining below average or rather cold! - Well so much for that then!!

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Saturday 25 Dec - Monday 3 Jan

This period remains somewhat uncertain in detail, but generally sees a split between colder air to the north and milder air to the south. Along the boundary, rain, with a risk of snow, predominantly across higher ground. To the south of this, mild, unsettled weather, with rain and occasional strong winds. To the north more settled conditions; brighter spells, with some wintry showers, mainly in the north and northeast, and feeling very cold in brisk northeasterly winds. Towards the end of the period potentially an interlude of more widely settled conditions, bringing colder, frosty weather. Maybe a risk of rain and snow with stronger winds arriving from the southwest later. Becoming colder than average heading into January with any unsettled, milder spells most likely for the west and south.

Saturday 25 Dec - Monday 3 Jan

This period remains somewhat uncertain in detail, but generally sees a split between colder air to the north and milder air to the south. Along the boundary, rain, with a risk of snow, predominantly across higher ground. To the south of this, mild, unsettled weather, with rain and occasional strong winds. To the north more settled conditions; brighter spells, with some wintry showers, mainly in the north and northeast, and feeling very cold in brisk northeasterly winds. Towards the end of the period potentially an interlude of more widely settled conditions, bringing colder, frosty weather. Maybe a risk of rain and snow with stronger winds arriving from the southwest later. Becoming colder than average heading into January with any unsettled, milder spells most likely for the west and south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

You do realise that you have copied the same text forecast twice!? - It maybe worth previewing it before posting. 

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Darren Bett on BBC weather saying most of us in the mild air in Xmas day but a slight possibility of a white Xmas for some in Scotland.

I think most of us then can write off the white Xmas chances based on that.

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 Conversely, Sean Batty on the STV News at 6:30 there, was just saying that it looks like the cold air will win out……..but too soon to comment on wether Christmas will be white, p.s………….you’re a right doom and gloom merchant eh 😂😂 

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Just a reminder of what the long ranger was saying back on December 3rd. Chocolate teapots spring to mind.

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Very good update 

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Well that's Scotland though isn't it so makes sense for there 😂😂

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not really down here, south today saying mild or very mild for Christmas into the following week …and with just one night hitting -0.1c this autumn and winter …I think we can say another exceptionally mild start to winter where the grass and flowers continue to grow…sad but true. 

As the post above says… the forecast for down here in the SW is for a mostly mild outlook. I cut the grass yesterday and as of yet I have not recorded a single air or ground frost this Autumn or start to winter.

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Darren ‘mild’ Brett emphasising how mild Thurs and Fri are going to be - 13C in the south. No mention of Christmas weekend.

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Definite changes on the met forecasts today, this is for the West Midlands for example:

 

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Milder with rain at times and rather murky on Thursday and Christmas Eve. Turning colder on Christmas Day with a chance of snow over the hills later. Breezy at times.

 

Snow risk edging south for sure.

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What does The Daily Star have to say about it. Always admired their output 😂😎

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Isn't it them that are forever predicting winter armageddon situations at this time of year, only for their predictions to fail miserably most of the time? Maybe I'm getting confused with another paper.

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Another met upgrade:

Sunday 26 Dec - Tuesday 4 Jan

This period remains somewhat uncertain in detail, but generally sees a split between colder air to the north and milder air to the south. Snow showers are looking to continue across far northern areas, with perhaps some mainly light rain or snow for southern locations. To the south, mild, unsettled weather, with rain and occasional strong winds. To the north more settled conditions with brighter spells and perhaps some frost or ice. Feeling very cold in brisk northeasterly winds for many. Along the boundary, potential for significant weather with snow likely at times in addition to possibly strong winds. Becoming colder than average heading into January with any unsettled, milder spells most likely for the west and south.

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