theweatheroutlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 February 2022 07:32:18

Summary charts show cold air being pushed back across Europe, lagging a bit in the SE, but all temps still above average for the time of year. Some real warmth appearing in S Spain week 2. Rain still dominating the N Atlantic, penetrating to N Europe week1, withdrawing in week 2 but the UK still damp.


Jet different to yesterday; across Uk to Thu 25th, then breaking up into loops mostly N of UK finally fragmented and well clear of UK from Wed 2nd.


GFS op also different but in line with above; at first stormy (965 mb N Scotland Mon 21st)then W-ly zonal until Fri 25th when HP over near Continent is strong enough to hold off the Atlantic (exc maybe in the far W) with S-lies for all, finally moving closer 1035mb England Mon 7th.


GEFS - in the S temps up and down to Fri 26th then generally mild esp around Mon 28th and Sun 6th, rain in next few days, a dry spell but rain in a lot of runs from Mon 28th (contrary to op run; presumably reflects UK on borderiine between Europe HP and Atlantic LP, could push one way or the other in different runs). In Scotland temps similar pattern but without the extra mildness 28th/6th, and no dry period. Snow row figures lower than yesterday


ECM fits in another storm Fri 26th 985 mb Shetland before developing continental Hp as above

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
briggsy6
19 February 2022 10:33:27

Signs of an end to the zonal train? Here's hoping.

Location: Uxbridge
David M Porter
19 February 2022 21:56:59


Signs of an end to the zonal train? Here's hoping.


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


There do seem to be some suggestions in FI in a few GFS op runs at the moment of the weakening of the PV as we head into early March. If that happens as is being shown in some runs, it should in time help to being about an end to the current very unsettled spell.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
dagspot
19 February 2022 23:08:40


Signs of an end to the zonal train? Here's hoping.


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


Usually the whole winter has long periods like this.. its only been a one stop tram never mind a zonal train

Neilston 600ft ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 February 2022 07:21:27

NB: this will be the last summary for a week or so as I have an eye operation (cataracts) coming up


WX summary: temps show - on the face of it - a paradox but not if you think about it. Cold air retreating to the N, E but temps above seasonal norm there, UK and France not particularly cold but below seasonal norm. Rain on Atlantic  affecting NW coasts of Europe esp Ireland and Norway.


Jet looping around UK often running N-wards off Ireland until Fri 4th when becoming very weak.


GFS op - gales from NW Mon 21st and Fri 25th with LP rolling across N of Scotland, W0lies in between. For rest of period, ridge of HP trying to establish Biscay - Norway but uncertainly so; current outlook shows it being nibbled at by Atlantic LP Mon 28th, Thu 3rd and Mon 7th.


GEFS - in the S temps up and down, never staying in either place for long; a little rain now and then in some but not all runs from Mon 28th. As you go further N, similar variations in temp though not as extreme, and rain/pptn likely to occur at any time


ECM - vindicated in including Friday's LP in yesterday's forecast. Similar to GFS today except that the HP from Mar 1st tends to be more of a centre W Germany than an extended ridge.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Bow Echo
20 February 2022 09:09:01

My goodness. I don't think I have ever seen a Level 3 from Estofex for any part of the UK previously!


 https://www.estofex.org/

Steve D. FRMetS
Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants


Sevendust
20 February 2022 09:49:02


My goodness. I don't think I have ever seen a Level 3 from Estofex for any part of the UK previously!


 https://www.estofex.org/


Originally Posted by: Bow Echo 


I can only hope that misses me. We have a lot of problems from the last clear up

Frank H
20 February 2022 09:56:31


NB: this will be the last summary for a week or so as I have an eye operation (cataracts) coming up


WX summary: temps show - on the face of it - a paradox but not if you think about it. Cold air retreating to the N, E but temps above seasonal norm there, UK and France not particularly cold but below seasonal norm. Rain on Atlantic  affecting NW coasts of Europe esp Ireland and Norway.


Jet looping around UK often running N-wards off Ireland until Fri 4th when becoming very weak.


GFS op - gales from NW Mon 21st and Fri 25th with LP rolling across N of Scotland, W0lies in between. For rest of period, ridge of HP trying to establish Biscay - Norway but uncertainly so; current outlook shows it being nibbled at by Atlantic LP Mon 28th, Thu 3rd and Mon 7th.


GEFS - in the S temps up and down, never staying in either place for long; a little rain now and then in some but not all runs from Mon 28th. As you go further N, similar variations in temp though not as extreme, and rain/pptn likely to occur at any time


ECM - vindicated in including Friday's LP in yesterday's forecast. Similar to GFS today except that the HP from Mar 1st tends to be more of a centre W Germany than an extended ridge.


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Best wishes with the operation.


Hope there's a change in the weather pattern when you return.

Wrightington, Wigan
David M Porter
20 February 2022 10:22:13


NB: this will be the last summary for a week or so as I have an eye operation (cataracts) coming up


WX summary: temps show - on the face of it - a paradox but not if you think about it. Cold air retreating to the N, E but temps above seasonal norm there, UK and France not particularly cold but below seasonal norm. Rain on Atlantic  affecting NW coasts of Europe esp Ireland and Norway.


Jet looping around UK often running N-wards off Ireland until Fri 4th when becoming very weak.


GFS op - gales from NW Mon 21st and Fri 25th with LP rolling across N of Scotland, W0lies in between. For rest of period, ridge of HP trying to establish Biscay - Norway but uncertainly so; current outlook shows it being nibbled at by Atlantic LP Mon 28th, Thu 3rd and Mon 7th.


GEFS - in the S temps up and down, never staying in either place for long; a little rain now and then in some but not all runs from Mon 28th. As you go further N, similar variations in temp though not as extreme, and rain/pptn likely to occur at any time


ECM - vindicated in including Friday's LP in yesterday's forecast. Similar to GFS today except that the HP from Mar 1st tends to be more of a centre W Germany than an extended ridge.


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Very best wishes for your operation, David. We shall look forward to reading your summaries again once you are able to resume doing them.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Devonian
20 February 2022 10:29:02


NB: this will be the last summary for a week or so as I have an eye operation (cataracts) coming up

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Good luck with that! It's fairly routine I'm told, the eye drops needed afterward more of a task.


WX summary: temps show - on the face of it - a paradox but not if you think about it. Cold air retreating to the N, E but temps above seasonal norm there, UK and France not particularly cold but below seasonal norm. Rain on Atlantic  affecting NW coasts of Europe esp Ireland and Norway.


Jet looping around UK often running N-wards off Ireland until Fri 4th when becoming very weak.


GFS op - gales from NW Mon 21st and Fri 25th with LP rolling across N of Scotland, W0lies in between. For rest of period, ridge of HP trying to establish Biscay - Norway but uncertainly so; current outlook shows it being nibbled at by Atlantic LP Mon 28th, Thu 3rd and Mon 7th.


GEFS - in the S temps up and down, never staying in either place for long; a little rain now and then in some but not all runs from Mon 28th. As you go further N, similar variations in temp though not as extreme, and rain/pptn likely to occur at any time


ECM - vindicated in including Friday's LP in yesterday's forecast. Similar to GFS today except that the HP from Mar 1st tends to be more of a centre W Germany than an extended ridge.



It's still 1988/89 all over again. Just a bit warmer.

ozone_aurora
20 February 2022 11:10:32


NB: this will be the last summary for a week or so as I have an eye operation (cataracts) coming up


WX summary: temps show - on the face of it - a paradox but not if you think about it. Cold air retreating to the N, E but temps above seasonal norm there, UK and France not particularly cold but below seasonal norm. Rain on Atlantic  affecting NW coasts of Europe esp Ireland and Norway.


Jet looping around UK often running N-wards off Ireland until Fri 4th when becoming very weak.


GFS op - gales from NW Mon 21st and Fri 25th with LP rolling across N of Scotland, W0lies in between. For rest of period, ridge of HP trying to establish Biscay - Norway but uncertainly so; current outlook shows it being nibbled at by Atlantic LP Mon 28th, Thu 3rd and Mon 7th.


GEFS - in the S temps up and down, never staying in either place for long; a little rain now and then in some but not all runs from Mon 28th. As you go further N, similar variations in temp though not as extreme, and rain/pptn likely to occur at any time


ECM - vindicated in including Friday's LP in yesterday's forecast. Similar to GFS today except that the HP from Mar 1st tends to be more of a centre W Germany than an extended ridge.


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Thanks Dew, as always. Hope the operation all goes well, and hope the weather will be more peaceful when you come home!

Jim-55
20 February 2022 11:12:26


NB: this will be the last summary for a week or so as I have an eye operation (cataracts) coming up


WX summary: temps show - on the face of it - a paradox but not if you think about it. Cold air retreating to the N, E but temps above seasonal norm there, UK and France not particularly cold but below seasonal norm. Rain on Atlantic  affecting NW coasts of Europe esp Ireland and Norway.


Jet looping around UK often running N-wards off Ireland until Fri 4th when becoming very weak.


GFS op - gales from NW Mon 21st and Fri 25th with LP rolling across N of Scotland, W0lies in between. For rest of period, ridge of HP trying to establish Biscay - Norway but uncertainly so; current outlook shows it being nibbled at by Atlantic LP Mon 28th, Thu 3rd and Mon 7th.


GEFS - in the S temps up and down, never staying in either place for long; a little rain now and then in some but not all runs from Mon 28th. As you go further N, similar variations in temp though not as extreme, and rain/pptn likely to occur at any time


ECM - vindicated in including Friday's LP in yesterday's forecast. Similar to GFS today except that the HP from Mar 1st tends to be more of a centre W Germany than an extended ridge.


Originally Posted by: DEW 


All the best with the operation Dew, I've had mine done some time ago one at a time, the procedure doesn't take long, uncomfortable when they put the contraption on to keep your eye lids open but you see nothing, painless and pretty straightforward. I had new lenses put in and the transformation was amazing, well worth the discomfort. While I'm at it thanks for all your hard work on this forum.

Previously JimC. joined back then in 2009. Frome, N/E Somerset, 125mtrs asl.
doctormog
20 February 2022 11:19:31
I’d like to second those comments. I hope it goes smoothly DEW and thanks again for all your ongoing contributions.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
20 February 2022 11:37:27

Can anyone explain the massive discrepancy between GFS and ARPEGE just 18 hours out in terms of 850mb temperatures? GFS has an area of sub -8C 850mb air over the south of England at midnight UTC tonight. ARPEGE has the 850mb temperature about -2 to -3C at the same time. Presumably one of these is an error?

Edit: ICON is a halfway house with an area of -6C. So maybe it really is just huge model uncertainty?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
mulattokid
20 February 2022 13:35:48

Hope it goes well Dew and a speedy return, as we head out of autumn and into spring.....

Located in West London

"Everything in life is our fault, but that's not our fault!"
Anonymous friend of Quentin Crisp
Lionel Hutz
20 February 2022 14:09:38

As others have said, I hope that the operation goes well. Until you're back, I'm sure that I am one of many who will miss you're always useful daily summaries. 

Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Scandy 1050 MB
20 February 2022 16:35:14

I’d like to second those comments. I hope it goes smoothly DEW and thanks again for all your ongoing contributions.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Second that too 

Brian Gaze
20 February 2022 16:37:18


NB: this will be the last summary for a week or so as I have an eye operation (cataracts) coming up


WX summary: temps show - on the face of it - a paradox but not if you think about it. Cold air retreating to the N, E but temps above seasonal norm there, UK and France not particularly cold but below seasonal norm. Rain on Atlantic  affecting NW coasts of Europe esp Ireland and Norway.


Jet looping around UK often running N-wards off Ireland until Fri 4th when becoming very weak.


GFS op - gales from NW Mon 21st and Fri 25th with LP rolling across N of Scotland, W0lies in between. For rest of period, ridge of HP trying to establish Biscay - Norway but uncertainly so; current outlook shows it being nibbled at by Atlantic LP Mon 28th, Thu 3rd and Mon 7th.


GEFS - in the S temps up and down, never staying in either place for long; a little rain now and then in some but not all runs from Mon 28th. As you go further N, similar variations in temp though not as extreme, and rain/pptn likely to occur at any time


ECM - vindicated in including Friday's LP in yesterday's forecast. Similar to GFS today except that the HP from Mar 1st tends to be more of a centre W Germany than an extended ridge.


Originally Posted by: DEW 


 Hope all goes well.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
idj20
20 February 2022 16:45:33

Also wishing Dew all the best, same goes for Mr P of the Gavin.

Back to the matter in hand, the 12z GFS is having a laugh with a monster dartboard low over the UK at 240 hrs. Hopefully this model is just having a bad day.

Folkestone Harbour. 
ozone_aurora
20 February 2022 16:57:18


Also wishing Dew all the best, same goes for Mr P of the Gavin.

Back to the matter in hand, the 12z GFS is having a laugh with a monster dartboard low over the UK at 240 hrs. Hopefully this model is just having a bad day.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


I thought the earlier forecast of HP would be far too good to be true.

Zubzero
20 February 2022 17:23:34
Good luck with the OP Dew hope for a speedy recovery 🙂
Rob K
20 February 2022 17:58:26
12Z GFS run still sticking with the -8C 850mb air overnight, well out of line with others.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
20 February 2022 18:07:30
GFS op throws up another beastly looking storm in about 10 days. At the moment wouldn’t bet against it
Jive Buddy
20 February 2022 19:15:45
Sorry, I don't normally corrupt threads....well not since the days of traffic lights on posts anyway 🤪, but I can speak first hand with experience of the cataract op. Believe me, it's the most painless instantly rewarding op you could possibly have, Dew. I had one done last year, and was c*dging myself right up to the last second. I really should have been more worried about crossing the road in a quiet cul-de-sac! It was a breeze, and 8 could see within 10 mins of the op. Ironically, the first thing I could see from the hospital window, was the London eye!
😎😁
It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 February 2022 20:51:03

Thanks for all the goodwill messages

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
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