Temp summary for Europe continues cold in the N, warm in the S (surprise!), perhaps less contrast week 2. More interesting is the temp relative to norm for week1, all of W Europe from Spain up to Russia below norm; only in the SE from Bulgaria to the Caspian is it above. A fairly narrow band of rain from Pyrenees to Urals week 1 (and some for Norway) but in week 2 only Spain (exc Andalucia) through to Italy is dry.
Jet less active for the UK than shown yesterday with significant activity persisting through the western Med and up to the Black Sea. After Fri 9th this begins to die away with more streaks across France and this closer to home
GFS op: HP declines with weak NE-lies for a few days around Thu 31st (Stop Press: Susan Powell on BBC has just shown a chart with wintry, even snowy weather over Cornwall on this date) but new HP in place 1030mb Ireland Sat 2nd (the NE-lies quite vicious down by Corsica at this time). This HP drifts slowly S-wards and weak N'lies are back Fri 8th. LP moves in from the Atlantic 990mb English Channel Tue 12th linking with the persistent LP over Scandinavia and importing some quite cold air.
Both GFS and Jet (linked, of course) show little resemblance to yesterday; the large area of LP across W Europe has gone and the active jet is much further S, so don't regard the forecast as stable.
GEFS: mild now dipping to cold around Fri 1st (many locations even on the S Coast have snow row figures in the high teens for a day or two 30th/31st, figures are 20+ in Scotland), back to norm Tue 5th and mean staying there but with a lot of variation between ens members. A little rain from time to time. Op is a cold outlier for a day or two Fri 8th (see above)
ECM: like GFS but the LP over Europe is closer Thu 31st so NE-lies are stronger esp in the SE; and the following HP declines SW-wards more quickly so N/NW-lies are in place by Wed 6th.
Note: now that BST is in force, the ECM runs do not complete until 0800 (was 0700 GMT) and I may not hang around waiting for this, so in future the later stages of the ECM forecast may be based on the previous day's 12z. Today's is the current 0z however.
Edited by user
27 March 2022 08:07:36
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Reason: Not specified
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