Mild it is then. 

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UK 12z .........what a shock to the system this will be 

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The difference between the models at this stage is pretty extraordinary, if I'm honest. The GFS is firmly sticking with the Atlantic quickly cutting off the cold flow after a day or so, whilst all the others have a proper spell of spring cold arriving (no ECM yet, mind you). It's pretty much the GFS versus every other model and it's either going to have to make one massive backtrack, or it's about to wipe the floor with the rest of them.

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ECM sticking to its guns anyway with 12z. 

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It is yes, and also quite frustrating when you still can't trust the models in the 3-5 day range, you should really be able to have strong confidence in what will happen up to 5 days away, but this really hasn't been the case with the models for the last 4 months or so.

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I don't trust any of them, all rubbish and no confident but I was very confident with forecasts up to 1 week via Ceefax, Newspapers, Teletext from channels abroad on Astra that forecast UK weather always come off on any weather set-up.  These the examples of teletext I used often from abroad is German Sat1, ARD1 and Euronews with their 6 days forecast.  I don't know what models they used to forecast that always accurate and cannot be from GFS, UKMO, ECM as they swings, back track and delaying it at day 10 all the time.

And GFS sticking to its guns with the 18z run.  

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Summary charts for week1 show cold weather holding on mainly in the north but in week 2 staging a comeback, with an area from UK through C Europe to Poland becoming cooler. At the same time the Med and S Europe continues to warm up so there's quite a sharp temp gradient, E-wards from the Baltic week 1 but further S week 2. Generally damp across Europe week 1, a more concentrated band of rain S Britain - France - Balkans - Ukraine week 2.

Jet close to S Britain Fri 1st, new stream across Spain and later Italy Tue 5th

GFS op: HP hanging on for a few days before an extended trough develops Thu 31st linking centres S of Greenland, W Scotland (995mb) and N Russia. The LP over Scotland deepens and moves SE (985mb England Fri 1st) and on into Europe so that this multi-centre trough becomes curved, from C Atlantic to Belarus to N Finland and sticks there to Wed 6th. Not much of a direct N-ly but always fairly cold. The trough contracts and becomes a conventional depression over Sweden Fri 8th before being superseded by the Atlantic 980mb Rockall Mon 11th.

GEFS: mild becoming cool/cold from Tue 29th (MOGREPS suggests about a 5C decrease in both max and min over a few days at about this time). For several days from Sun 3rd the majority of ens members favour a return to mild but op and control persistently much colder until Sat 9th when they join a wide spread of outcomes. Rain on and off from Tue 29th.

ECM: not dissimilar to GFS but keeps pressure higher W of Britain so the Atlantic doesn't join up with the extended trough until Mon 4th. This also allows more of a N/NE-ly to develop with the LP over England on Fri 1st

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I doubt it will feel that cold given the strength of the sun now, particularly with a bit of shelter from the wind. Where are those April showers?

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Compared with today it will feel very cold I would think for areas exposed to the northerly flow. For more sheltered central and southern areas it my possibly be barely noticeable beyond “the wind’s a bit cooler than at the weekend”. From mid teens and warm-feeling sunshine here to wintry (March) showers will be noticeable enough.

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I am expecting typical early spring conditions down here in an Arctic flow: it will feel just about pleasant in the sun and out of the wind; but decidedly unpleasant if it’s overcast and you’re exposed to the wind.  From ‘feels like early summer’ to ‘feels like winter’ within 3-4 days.

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With the sun now as strong as it is in September I think convective heat of the day (April) showers and cloud cover will be of note even down here. But like you say if it stays sunny then there won't be much difference to the feel out of the wind.. although I don't think high teens/low twenties will be getting reached.

This will feel cold without a doubt - especially after the last few days 

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GFS in tune with UK 

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Yes, has the GFS finally admitted defeat? The 12Z is decided colder than many of its recent runs.

This could be quite a long cold spell, by the way things are looking. Not so good for nature though, as spring seems very advanced after the last two weeks of mild and bright weather. I get a feeling this spell could do some real damage if there are some particularly cold nights in there. So far they aren't looking too cold, but of course, it will all depend of cloud amounts and how light winds fall overnight

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I'm on the Northumberland Coast next weekend 😲

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Temp summary for Europe continues cold in the N, warm in the S (surprise!), perhaps less contrast week 2. More interesting is the temp relative to norm for week1, all of W Europe from Spain up to Russia below norm; only in the SE from Bulgaria to the Caspian is it above. A fairly narrow band of rain from Pyrenees to Urals week 1 (and some for Norway) but in week 2 only Spain (exc Andalucia) through to Italy is dry.

Jet less active for the UK than shown yesterday with significant activity persisting  through the western Med and up to the Black Sea. After Fri 9th this begins to die away with more streaks across France and this closer to home

GFS op: HP declines with weak NE-lies for a few days around Thu 31st (Stop Press: Susan Powell on BBC has just shown a chart with wintry, even snowy weather over Cornwall on this date) but new HP in place 1030mb Ireland Sat 2nd (the NE-lies quite vicious down by Corsica at this time). This HP drifts slowly S-wards and weak N'lies are back Fri 8th. LP moves in from the Atlantic 990mb English Channel Tue 12th linking with the persistent LP over Scandinavia and importing some quite cold air.

Both GFS and Jet (linked, of course) show little resemblance to yesterday; the large area of LP across W Europe has gone and the active jet is much further S, so don't regard the forecast as stable.

GEFS: mild now dipping to cold around Fri 1st (many locations even on the S Coast have snow row figures in the high teens for a day or two 30th/31st, figures are 20+ in Scotland), back to norm Tue 5th and mean staying there but with a lot of variation between ens members. A little rain from time to time. Op is a cold outlier for a day or two Fri 8th (see above)

ECM: like GFS but the LP over Europe is closer Thu 31st so NE-lies are stronger esp in the SE; and the following HP declines SW-wards more quickly so N/NW-lies are in place by Wed 6th.

Note: now that BST is in force, the ECM runs do not complete until 0800 (was 0700 GMT) and I may not hang around waiting for this, so in future the later stages of the ECM forecast may be based on the previous day's 12z. Today's is the current 0z however.

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Thanks David 

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Interesting end to the week

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The here and now^^^^^^^^

Later in the week ^^^

 

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Nice to see charts like this appearing again, there could be some more settled weather in the medium range after all.

And yes I am cherry picking! 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_162_1.png

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yet BBC just there saying temps 6-10dc. Not sure that adds up to widespread persisting or significant snow?

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They're just going for a worst case scenario to cover their backs after the event. They don't want tabloid headlines: "Snowmageddon hell - why weren't we warned."

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I’m not sure (Marcus’s charts excepted) that the model consensus is for any widespread significant or persistent snow. Some transient “features” and convective wintry showers look highly probably for at least parts of the country though.

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Even in very cold airmasses at this time of year you can get such temps, but with low dew points and big convective pass overs, temps will drop very suddenly, so snow is still very possible even when temps are forecast to be fairly high. 

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