WX summary temps upgraded somewhat since yesterday - still a large area below average  from Spain through to N Russia in week 1 with notably above average around the Black Sea but week 2 shows a modest advance northwards of warmer weather as far as S France and the Alps rather than yesterday's cooling. Focus for rain switches from Spain and C Europe week 1 (UK is dry) to N Atlantic including NW Britain week 2.

GFS op - LP over France and HP , over Iceland until Wed 27th when pressure rises over UK which is then covered by a large area of HP 1035mb Sat 30th. This retreats W-wards and LP moves down from the N 990mb Rockall Thu 5th slowly filling and drifting N-wards. (Note that the forecast for the first week of May is not stable; yesterday the 0z at this time that LP was over Denmark; by the 12z it had been replaced by HP over W Scotland and now...)

GEFS - temps soon dropping to just below norm and staying there through to Sat 7th ; wide range in ens members from Sun 1st, control being esp pessimistic. Only small amounts of rain, with increasingly probability towards end of period. Snow row figures still in low teens for Inverness about Wed 4th. 

ECM like GFS for the next week. After that, only 12z available at time of posting but HP moves W-wards earlier allowing onset of N-lies sooner

Yesterday's upgrade to WX temp forecasts not maintained. Still a large area of below-average temps Spain  - C Europe - Finland (though not as much below as it has been) bur in week 2 something of a push back of cool air to C Europe and Ukraine; UK staying much the same, Spain a little warmer. Week 1 rainfall as yesterday (Pyrenees - Alps - E Europe, UK to Denmark dry) but the emphasis in week 2 is now further E, from N Scotland to Scandinavia with remnants of the week 1 pattern dying away.

Jet looping around on the Atlantic to no great effect though one loop is close to UK Thu 5th, while a more definite stream runs through the Med for much of the next two weeks

GFS Op - currently LP over France and HP over Iceland with E-lies before pressure rises over UK 1025mb Wed 27th splitting the LP into two centres Azores and Finland. The Hp intensifies to May 1st before slipping W-wards with N-lies for the E Coast at first and more generally Fri 6th with the LP coming closer, to Sweden 985mb. HP rebuilds from the SW Mon 9th pushing the LP NE to Finland.

GEFS - cool around Tue 26th, back to norm in the S, then a long period of even cooler temps, at its mostextremearound Wed 4th - Fri 6th with mean of ens members about 4C below norm, op and control amongst the most pessimistic. Trivial amounts of rain at first, a little more from Wed 4th onward esp in NE. Inverness displaying snow row figures in teens around Wed 4th, even Brighton with a couple of ens members predicting snow on that date!

ECM - similar to GFS but yesterday's 12z (not updated after Thu 28th at time of posting) shows N-lies already close by and in place by Mon 2nd driven by LP 1000mb Scotland

Looks like another month or more with zero rainfall (already two weeks here with no rain)  and cold at just the wrong time for nesting small birds. Two years running of decimating them is not good with already dwindling numbers for other reasons.

A few snow spikes showing up for here for the early May period 

More than I seen last winter. There is an old legend around these parts that shortly before the end of days, that the seasons will become inverted. 

I'm getting worried. 

If you can recall April/May 2021 I wouldn't worry. They were shxte

Temp summary charts show little change from the present situation - temps slightly below norm for most of a broad band from Spain up to W Russia (France excepted). Absolute temps the same for Europe in week 2 when things should be warming up. Week 1 dry for countries bordering the N Sea and also across the Med, some rain elsewhere; in week 2 the dry area in the N shrinks to N France with wet weather moving in from the Atlantic across N Scotland and Scandinavia.

Fragments of jet - odd streaks and loops breaking up - affecting the Atlantic and esp the UK from Sat 30th for a week (a little more active than shown yesterday) then from Sat 7th more organised across S England and finally intensifying Tue 10th

GFS op - the present cool trough from mid-Atlantic to Baltic is, as yesterday, split into two by pressure rise over UK Wed 27th, at its most intense 1030mb Irish Sea Sat 30th (but FAX does better, 1035 mb N Sea Thu 28th) but then slipping W-wards. By Wed 4th the UK weather is dominated by a 'master' depression 990mb S Norway with N-lies, and additional smaller LPs in this flow running across Britain Fri 6th (1000mb N Scotland) and Sun 8th (985mb Hebrides). A suggestion of pressure rise from the SW Tue 10th.

GEFS - temps cool Tue 26th, back to norm for a few days (even a little above in the S) then mean 2 or 3C below norm Mon 2nd - Sat 7th with op and control notably pessimistic (8 or 9 C below norm on the 4th). Small amounts of rain from Sun 1st onwards

ECM - like GFS to end of April but the LP over Scandinavia  is treated differently, a definite centre 985mb N Norway by Wed 4th, weaker N-lies and pressure higher over Britain (this is a later edit with ECM 0z available)

Temp summary charts still show little change from the present situation -" temps slightly below norm for most of a broad band from Spain up to W Russia (France excepted). Absolute temps the same for Europe in week 2 when things should be warming up", just a little less cold in the far north. The rainfall pattern has changed a bit; week 1 dry for countries bordering the N Sea as previously but some rain in W Med, C Europe and N Norway; in week 2 the dry area moves down to Biscay and S Norway (and a small part of NW Scotland) added to the 'wet list'. 

GFS Op; pressure rising generally over the UK to max on Fri 29th 1035mb, weakening and moving SW as new LP moves E-wards to N Norway 985mb Tue 3rd and N-lies (weaker than yesterday) setting in. HP recovers in the following week despite a small area of LP breaking away from Norway and running S 1010mb  E Germany Thu 5th. Then there's a repeat as another LP moves E-wards but closer, to S Sweden 980mb Tue 10th with N-ly gales for all UK.

GEFS; temps cool for a couple of days, recovering to near norm (a little above in S) around Fri 29th; then a long period of cool/cold weather with temps lowest around Thu 5th, recovering to norm at end Wed 11th. Even the op run shown on the GEFS doesn't match the synoptics well; but at least there's more general agreement on temps with fewer really cold ens members than yesterday. Small, not to say v small, amounts of rain in most ens members from May 1st.

ECM; keeps pressure high over UK albeit with centre to SW, and although the LP over N Norway is there, it's not as deep and further E so less effect on UK weather. Also looks much drier - problems mounting here?

Nothing too remarkable temperature wise in the outlook for the foreseeable future, save for some night frost potential in sheltered areas. If the sun shines during the day it will probably feel quite pleasant.  Eastern parts bearing the brunt of the cool and cloud. What is increasingly remarkable is the lack of rain for many parts of the UK. It's been drier than average for much of the year and there is little, if any, significant rain likely for the next fortnight either. 

The soil charts in the wxmaps site show this well. A couple of months ago, most of the UK was green. Now it is largely orange and the forecast soil deficits for the next 14 days only show things drying out even further. 

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/soil4

Is this the beginning of a dry summer or will we revert to more typical unsettled weather some time in May just when everybody really starts to rely on dry days for outdoor events?

Well, 1976 has been the clear top in the analogue table for four consecutive days now! I don't think any year has remained top for even three days until now.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/weather-analogues.aspx

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If we have a hot spell in the first week of May then I'd be optimistic as there seems to be a link with warm summers. Unfortunately the longer-range forecast is suggesting cool cloudy weather with northerly winds in early May.

My gut feeling is the drought will break in the second week of May and the summer will be wetter than average.

WX temp charts are still stuck with a colder-than-normal start to May for W Europe - indeed week 2 shows an intensification of cool/cold air in a bulge defined by Iceland - Britain - Alps - Poland -Finland. Any real warmth is still stuck in the Med. Rainfall patterns keep shifting; week 1 has dry patches S England, S France and Black Sea; week 2 the area of rain neatly defines the edge of the bulge described above.

Jet almost absent from N Atlantic until Sun 8th when it sets up as a NW-ly flow past SW Ireland down to S France and eventually on to Turkey

GFS op shows HP growing to max extent Fri 29th centred 1035mb N England, slipping W-wards, at first N-lies down the N Sea then allowing LP to set up 1000mb Denmark Fri 6th. This fills but at the same time extends to a large diffuse area of LP covering the N Atlantic, Britain and W Europe Thu 12th.

GEFS mean temp never far from norm through to Thu 12th, if anything on the cool side (op & control really cold around Fri 6th away from SW). Small amounts of rain from about Sun 1st, more in the N.

ECM keeps pressure higher over UK; the N-lies are weaker and the LP on Fri 6th is more diffuse and away in the Baltic.

WX temp summary still showing lower-than-normal temps across W Europe in week 1; slightly better in week 2 as warmer temps creep N from the E Med with some modest improvement up to the Baltic. Dry areas in week 1 along the coasts of W Europe and in the Med; in week 2 there's a band of rain from the Atlantic across Scotland to S Sweden and W Russia. Also along the N Med coasts to Turkey. (but the rainfall pattern keeps changing).

Ice coverage not changing a lot over the last 30+ days on our side of the Arctic, recent rapid melting confined to Bering and Yellow Seas

Jet still asleep; just a bit of activity close to W Britain around Mon 9th

GFS op; pressure high over Britain now but retreating SW from Mon 2nd but still influencing weather for the week following (bar a shallow LP running across Scotland Thu 5th) then LP 985mb SW Eire Tue 10th slowly filling but leaving Britain under a shallow trough.

GEFS; mean temp close to norm to Thu 12th - a little up and down at first and control v cold around Sun 8th (an outlier in S, but more persistent and not on its own in the N). Still only small amounts of rain from Sun 1st (even less than yesterday at first for the S) 

ECM; similar to GFS though the 'shallow LP' is less definite, reduced to a small trough in more general N-lies

GEFS for London showing very little rain for the next 2 weeks.  Droughtwatch continues

We always seem to be in a pattern of monsoon-drought monsoon-drought recently.  Let's hope summer is not a wash out.

Hope this doesn't end up like 2007.

I must admit I'd feel happier getting wet weather now. I'm sure there is no scientific evidence but dry springs make me nervous about the forthcoming summer as I like them dry and warm. 

If anybody can show us that we can get dry springs, followed by dry and warm summers then please feel free to give examples 

Yes, I'm getting some 2007 vibes. This April has been nowhere near as good as April 2007 was, but the spring seen a long dry and settled spell. It would be Sod's law for the dry weather to break just in time for summer.

1975 76  2018    also 1989 and 1990 probably qualify but not everywhere . 

We get this pattern matching panic every year. Every year is different, probably more so if you buy into climate change 

The pattern that set in last July just keeps repeating itself. It did all last winter and is continuing to do so now. I can't remember such a incredibly prolonged dry spell, and any rain that has fallen in the last year has been very light. No doubt this pattern will change in time but I think it will be well into summer or even next autumn before it will.

Perhaps its down to this prolonged La Nina or something, but it is interesting that the NW'n States had one of, if not the, coldest spring periods on record this year, and this after the same region had its warmest summer spell on record last year. 

Really could do with a bit of rain now - a couple of days of heavy rain followed by a week or two of warm sunshine would be lovely. 

WX temp summary little changed from yesterday "still showing lower-than-normal temps across W Europe in week 1; slightly better in week 2 as warmer temps creep N from the E Med with some modest improvement up to the Baltic". Also the same "Dry areas in week 1 along the coasts of W Europe and in the Med". In week 2 the rainfall pattern changes daily; today's version shows a patch off NW Britain and a band from S France to Romania and north to Finland.

Jet; nothing persistent until Tue 10th when something stronger running NW-SE off SW Britain

GFS op ; pressure fairly high until Wed 4th (albeit with a local disturbance over Scotland this Sunday) then LP moving to Norway Fri 6th with N-lies. A N-S ridge of HP then resumes until Fri 13th when LP sets up 985mb Rockall with broad trough to rest of UK.

GEFS; mean temp close to or a little below norm; more variation after Fri 6th than shown yesterday with op and control both amongst the coldest ens members early in this period, notably so in N but in the pack in SW. Small amounts of rain from Sun 1st, looks showery at first and more general from about Thu 12th. 

ECM; pressure not quite as high as shown in GFS with small disturbances moving S; the LP over Norway takes a day or two longer to establish