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Rob K
16 July 2022 10:10:41

Twitter is a total cesspit of bile. Perfectly possible /reasonable to have knowledge of past heatwaves and an appreciation of the importance of long term trends over individual very hot days, without being a "climate change denier"
In a way that guy has stooped to their level

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 


I think it’s more that people are saying “it was much hotter in the 70s” to minimise the effects of 40C. It never even reached 36C in the whole 1970s. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
16 July 2022 10:12:31

Leconfield field now 42c for Tuesday on the Met Office App!
That is just crazy!

Originally Posted by: scillydave 


Is that factoring in the dodgy station? 😀


I really hope they have fixed the problem there. It would be annoying if it was the true hot spot but we never got an accurate reading. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
16 July 2022 10:16:24


 


I think it’s more that people are saying “it was much hotter in the 70s” to minimise the effects of 40C. It never even reached 36C in the whole 1970s. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Its totally the Blitz tendency. Half of those making the comment probably weren’t alive in 1976 (I was born that autumn) or were small children.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
westv
16 July 2022 10:20:09
Max in 76 was 35c
I imagine, for most people, the difference between 35c and 40c is being bl**dy hot and being bl**dy hot!
At least it will be mild!
Spring Sun Winter Dread
16 July 2022 10:25:36
1976 also had the 15 straight days of somewhere in the UK topping 32C... that for me would be alot more significant than a couple of days in the late 30s today especially against the prevailing summer climate of the time.
The key difference is that it was then a once in 100 year anomaly whereas now we come close to beating it seemingly every 5 years or so... And I am sure in my lifetime it will be comprehensively beaten in the CET records.
xioni2
16 July 2022 10:33:07

While the temps will be dangerous and the warnings are very much justified, I don't think this heatwave will be a big killer for several reasons:



  • it's short lived (~48h) and people and buildings have cooled down over the last 3 days

  • humidity will be low making it much more bearable esp in the absence of manual work and prolonged exposure in the sun

  • more awareness due to the warnings and publicity


Most deaths will probably occur on Tuesday after the difficult Mon night.


Tuesday will be a blowdryer day across most parts of England with the low humidity, searing heat and the gusty wind.


 

Essan
16 July 2022 10:34:47

Max in 76 was 35c

Originally Posted by: westv 



And how widespread was that?   How many cities got that hot?  How many people actually experienced 35c in 1976 compared with the numbers likely to next week? 



It'll be interesting to see how many weather stations break the current temp record on Monday and/or Tuesday.   I doubt it'll be just the one.


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Retron
16 July 2022 10:37:39

Max in 76 was 35c
I imagine, for most people, the difference between 35c and 40c is being bl**dy hot and being bl**dy hot!

Originally Posted by: westv 


The difference is stark: 35C is hot and at 40C you will cook, slowly.


Ambient temperatures that are above body temperature are deadly.


 


Leysdown, north Kent
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
16 July 2022 10:38:14

1976 also had the 15 straight days of somewhere in the UK topping 32C... that for me would be alot more significant than a couple of days in the late 30s today especially against the prevailing summer climate of the time.
The key difference is that it was then a once in 100 year anomaly whereas now we come close to beating it seemingly every 5 years or so... And I am sure in my lifetime it will be comprehensively beaten in the CET records.

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 


Indeed it’s only 2 years since we had 6 days in a row above 34C and in the last 5 years (before this year) we’ve beaten the 76 max in 2, got within a degree of it in 2 more, and had one summer that matches 76 as a whole. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
16 July 2022 10:41:43


While the temps will be dangerous and the warnings are very much justified, I don't think this heatwave will be a big killer for several reasons:



  • it's short lived (~48h) and people and buildings have cooled down over the last 3 days

  • humidity will be low making it much more bearable esp in the absence of manual work and prolonged exposure in the sun

  • more awareness due to the warnings and publicity


Most deaths will probably occur on Tuesday after the difficult Mon night.


Tuesday will be a blowdryer day across most parts of England with the low humidity, searing heat and the gusty wind.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Agree with that. The coolish run up will help too. 33-34C on Sunday does preheat some places a bit. The heatwave of 2020 was probably more dangerous for its duration.


France also a bit less prolonged heat and much less humid than 2003.


I imagine there will be more acute heat stroke type illnesses this year, and fewer elderly dehydration ones. Many of the most vulnerable also already fell to Covid.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
picturesareme
16 July 2022 10:45:49

Max in 76 was 35c
I imagine, for most people, the difference between 35c and 40c is being bl**dy hot and being bl**dy hot!

Originally Posted by: westv 


Don't know what the humidity was like in 76 but this time around it is looking to be fairly low. I was looking at some of the automated forecasts last night and despite highs of 38/39 the real feel was closer to 3131/32 so not that bad. 

picturesareme
16 July 2022 10:47:54


While the temps will be dangerous and the warnings are very much justified, I don't think this heatwave will be a big killer for several reasons:



  • it's short lived (~48h) and people and buildings have cooled down over the last 3 days

  • humidity will be low making it much more bearable esp in the absence of manual work and prolonged exposure in the sun

  • more awareness due to the warnings and publicity


Most deaths will probably occur on Tuesday after the difficult Mon night.


Tuesday will be a blowdryer day across most parts of England with the low humidity, searing heat and the gusty wind.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Cooled down over past 3 days I'm not sure about that. Yesterday was the coolest day in a week at 26C down here - today might be cooler still. 

Bolty
16 July 2022 10:50:51

1976 also had the 15 straight days of somewhere in the UK topping 32C... that for me would be alot more significant than a couple of days in the late 30s today especially against the prevailing summer climate of the time.
The key difference is that it was then a once in 100 year anomaly whereas now we come close to beating it seemingly every 5 years or so... And I am sure in my lifetime it will be comprehensively beaten in the CET records.

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 


Put it this way, if we beat 40°C next week, I think it will happen again before this decade is over.


Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
sunny coast
16 July 2022 10:54:54


 


Don't know what the humidity was like in 76 but this time around it is looking to be fairly low. I was looking at some of the automated forecasts last night and despite highs of 38/39 the real feel was closer to 3131/32 so not that bad. 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


The memorable part of the 76 summer was the fortnight that coincided with Wimbledon that was the unprecedented run of 32 degrees somewhere in UK for I believe 15 days and during that period the humidity was unusually low  it was a very Mediterranean  spell of incredibly vivid blue skies and strong sun 

xioni2
16 July 2022 10:58:16


 Put it this way, if we beat 40°C next week, I think it will happen again before this decade is over.


Originally Posted by: Bolty 


43-44C looks doable in this country.


Funnily even Tuesday's setup would have produced 43-44 if there were some decent mountains north of London due to the katabatic wind. There will still be plenty of that effect even from the Downs so I expect London to be hotter than what most models show on late Tue morning and early afternoon.


 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
16 July 2022 11:06:51


 


43-44C looks doable in this country.


Funnily even Tuesday's setup would have produced 43-44 if there were some decent mountains north of London due to the katabatic wind. There will still be plenty of that effect even from the Downs so I expect London to be hotter than what most models show on late Tue morning and early afternoon.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Often think about what a bit more interesting relief would do to local climates in Britain. Making the Cotswolds and Chilterns 5 times the height for example = London and Home Counties semi-desert. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
nsrobins
16 July 2022 11:11:55


 


Don't know what the humidity was like in 76 but this time around it is looking to be fairly low. I was looking at some of the automated forecasts last night and despite highs of 38/39 the real feel was closer to 3131/32 so not that bad. 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


A little context with the 1976 comparisons. I was 13 - I remember it well and have detailed records. The primary factor was the lack of rainfall and drought conditions prompted special measures by the middle of July. The heat peaked early July with 35.9C in Cheltenham on the 3rd. I lived near Portsmouth and yes it was hot at times with many days exceeding 30C (but rarely above 33C) but with low humidity most of the time it was liveable. Most of the Summer holidays spent exploring the countryside, river swimming, etc and watering the plants with bath water. 


The forecast heat Mon/Tues, however short-lived, is a factor above anything 1976 delivered and will cause problems. Once the air temp exceeds body temp there is a sudden depreciation in your body’s ability to keep cool and heat stroke becomes a much bigger problem. 


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
16 July 2022 11:12:15


 


The difference is stark: 35C is hot and at 40C you will cook, slowly.


Ambient temperatures that are above body temperature are deadly.


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 

The difference is, 35c is below body heat!


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
16 July 2022 11:20:33


 


A little context with the 1976 comparisons. I was 13 - I remember it well and have detailed records. The primary factor was the lack of rainfall and drought conditions prompted special measures by the middle of July. The heat peaked early July with 35.9C in Cheltenham on the 3rd. I lived near Portsmouth and yes it was hot at times with many days exceeding 30C (but rarely above 33C) but with low humidity most of the time it was liveable. Most of the Summer holidays spent exploring the countryside, river swimming, etc and watering the plants with bath water. 


The forecast heat Mon/Tues, however short-lived, is a factor above anything 1976 delivered and will cause problems. Once the air temp exceeds body temp there is a sudden depreciation in your body’s ability to keep cool and heat stroke becomes a much bigger problem. 


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

 Exactly that!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Tim A
16 July 2022 11:52:30


 


Is that factoring in the dodgy station? 😀


I really hope they have fixed the problem there. It would be annoying if it was the true hot spot but we never got an accurate reading. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Is reading 22c , same as Humberside so fingers crossed.


Yesterday it seemed ok but it was cloudy so doubt the military equipment would have had the same effect.


 


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Tim A
16 July 2022 12:01:14
TWO comes into its own on situations like this. I know this forum isn't as busy as it used to be but it is 1000 times above social media. The intelligence level of people on Facebook weather groups is appauling, I do wonder why half of them are even members, many of them don't have an interest in the weather and dismiss everything as 'just summer, winter etc' or post false information or let blind nostalgia get in the way of facts.

There really is no hope for civilisation. Anyone ever proposing another referendum on anything, would do well to check such groups as a reminder of the level of people they are asking to make a decision .
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
16 July 2022 12:22:17

TWO comes into its own on situations like this. I know this forum isn't as busy as it used to be but it is 1000 times above social media. The intelligence level of people on Facebook weather groups is appauling, I do wonder why half of them are even members, many of them don't have an interest in the weather and dismiss everything as 'just summer, winter etc' or post false information or let blind nostalgia get in the way of facts.

There really is no hope for civilisation. Anyone ever proposing another referendum on anything, would do well to check such groups as a reminder of the level of people they are asking to make a decision .

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

 I feel your pain and I steer clear of social media these days for that reason.  I only use two Facebook groups, a holiday one and our community one and I sometimes cringe at the latter.  


One person posted about the heatwave and quoted a local paper that says Met O have an amber warning. Yesterday morning I replied that we actually have a red warning and it’s serious stuff.  Not a single person has replied or commented. Yet dozens were kept awake Thursday night by cows mooing and last night by fireworks going off at 10 pm. I wonder what will keep them awake Monday night. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
CreweCold
16 July 2022 12:37:31

Can’t believe how many idiots there are all over social media, doing down this upcoming heat. A lot saying it’s normal because it’s summer. They simply don’t get it do they?!



Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
xioni2
16 July 2022 12:45:31


Can’t believe how many idiots there are all over social media, doing down this upcoming heat. A lot saying it’s normal because it’s summer. They simply don’t get it do they?!


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


Some even say that it's the woke left which overplays the heatwave and too many snowflakes will melt on Mon & Tue.


Tim A
16 July 2022 12:48:39


 I feel your pain and I steer clear of social media these days for that reason.  I only use two Facebook groups, a holiday one and our community one and I sometimes cringe at the latter.  


One person posted about the heatwave and quoted a local paper that says Met O have an amber warning. Yesterday morning I replied that we actually have a red warning and it’s serious stuff.  Not a single person has replied or commented. Yet dozens were kept awake Thursday night by cows mooing and last night by fireworks going off at 10 pm. I wonder what will keep them awake Monday night. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


 


 



Part of me wants maximum temps and impact just to prove these people wrong and for them to take these matters seriously.  


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 

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