Rough guide= 15 days at 17 mean = 235 degrees.

A monthly mean of 18 requires 31x18 = 558 degrees.

Current deficit to 15th = 323 degrees.

This spread over remaining 16 days requires 20.2C per day everage.

Yesterday will have been below that but although today through Tuesday should easily exceed that and give us some to spare, beyond is still uncertain and no prolonged hot spell is in the models although hints of some more hot days here & there.

I reckon at this stage we will be looking at mid 17s at best, but of course I won't pretend to see beyond Wednesday.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Calculation is wrong

Half a month at 17, to get average 18, other half a month would be 19

The extra day is not going to make much difference to this quick check

Originally Posted by: Surrey John 

MET OFFICE HADLEY CENTER       17.3C     ANOMALY   1.3C. PROVISIONAL TO 17TH

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

Monday is surely going to be a strong contender for the hottest CET day ever, and by some margin?

The record to beat is 25.2C (set on 29 Jul 1948 & 25 Jul 2019).

Looking at the UKV, even a conservative estimate would have a max for the CET area of 36C and a minimum of 21C, giving a mean of 28.5C.

Taking the more extreme end of a 38C max and a 22C minimum we would end up with a 30C CET day, which is just ridiculous to contemplate. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Probably rise approx 0.5c after yesterday

Originally Posted by: Frank H 

If the Met Office just take the average of the 3 maxima and the 3 minima from 09:00 to 09:00 of the 3 stations then I think the mean CET from the last 24 hours will be aroind 27.0C which is easily a new record - probably lasting 1 day

Originally Posted by: lanky 

Evidently yhey don't do it that way then I have just seen they have it at 24.4 and not breaking the record

The new month to date is now 17.7

Originally Posted by: lanky 

Is that because of the minima used for a day being the ones before the day and maybe you'd used last night's for yesterday's? The previous night was cooler, especially at Pershore; the record will go today- those minima will be used.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Thanks Bert

I think you nailed it - doing it that way gives their answer

That means we will smash it on tomorrows figure

Originally Posted by: lanky 

Hadley

17.7c to the 18th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Yes, at the end of the month, there’s always one more minima to count. So it’ll be 9am today, to 9am tomorrow.  Now I’m confused. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

By my quickfire calculations I make it 18.4C at the end of the month, per this morning's 00z GFS. But note that does have early 30s on the last couple of days which hike the average up a lot.

Some quite cool, single figure nights to come. The difference between daytime and night temperatures this month is quite stark - with the honourable exception of the last 3 nights.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

That will be the minimum for tomorrow Caz!

Not sure if that helped at all!

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle