indeed, I think that is likely to be the case as we go into the second half of this September as the Atlantic seem to be struggling to get its act together. After having had 80+ mm of rain in just the past 10 days here at my location, it didn’t take long for me to say about wanting some decent drying up conditions! Furthermore, after having been miserable, dull and very wet this morning, the sun broke through in the afternoon and caused my famed west-facing hobby room to touch 30 C by sunset time, even though I had windows open and was 18 C outside at the time.

A late September 2011-type pattern developing on the 12Z GFS.

I find it can be very facinating when you get days in the mid or even upper-20s once the days are actually shorter than the nights. You also get an interesting phenomenon where you have very warm weather, but very long shadows too. It would certainly be a proper "last hurrah" of summer, put it that way.

Let hope this is a trend and bring it on, was talking to dad earlier on hoping for warmer late Sept and October to avoid heating on since 2011 and being over due for one.  Those charts can easily bring indoor temps to mid to high 20;s and with my shutters I have will prolonged the warmth after that.  Bank Holiday Monday will be the best one of this year than previous BH days.

They're not for BH Monday, they're for the Monday after (26th Sept). The day of the Queen's funeral is looking dry and fine, but quite cool.

I know and BH also very nice with lot of sunshine with high teen temps. 

WX temp charts confirm week 1 cool air pushed down from NE almost to Atlantic coasts, but in week 2 warmer again for the west (France, Holland, England); and still hot in Spain and E of the Urals both weeks. Area of rain in week 1 continuing to move E-wards, to Belarus and Finland with Britain mainly dry , replaced in week 2 by heavy rain from the Atlantic into N Scotland and Norway, dry weather off down to S France.

GFS Op - light N-lies for this week between HP to W and LP to E, until Tue 20th when HP settles over Cornwall 1025mb and covers the rest of the country. This gives way to trough in the W, close to W Scotland Fri 23rd before  a period of SW-lies for all, likely to be pepped up by ex-hurricanes, one near Nova Scotia Tue 27th and a less intense one in same position Sat 1st.

ECM - similar to GFS until Fri 23rd when LP instead of moving away to NE broadens out and becomes a shallow area of LP covering all Britain Sun 25th

GEFS - cool for 5 or 6 days (less so in W) then mean near norm but little agreement between ens members after Sun 25th; rain in increasing number of ens members and increasing quantities after that date (a couple of days earlier in N)

Well it looks like we are not going to be able to turn our heating on until mid October at the earliest because the builders are taking their sweet time doing anything, so a record mild October would do me nicely. Then a CFS-style January and February so I can put the new heating and insulation through its paces!

 I am in the same position. Builders started in May but still not close to being finished.  Boiler works for hot water but not linked to thermostat and no way to force the boiler on without the digital wired thermostat.    The next few days might be a bit testing.  My day electric rate is still 14p/kwh though so can always resort to the electric fire or portable heaters without too much of a hit to the wallet. 

Why so slow on both of your builders? Hope not ripping you off by taking it time to charge you more on labour costs.  still looking good next week and warmth enough with sunshine.

Ours is just one main guy and his apprentice, they are doing everything from roofing/rendering/plastering to building work,  so it just takes time to do  They are not the fastest in the world too, lots of breaks and contemplating what they are doing.  But no additional costs so far, and done lots of little extra's without adding to the bill. Happy so far! If they do it slower, its slower paydays for them (stage payments). 

By what you say Tim, you have a real gem there. Don't upset him at all. If you're not happy about something make sure that whatever it is that's niggling you, isn't petty before you talk to him. Or if you like I can carefully offer (Not advise) suggestions that may help settle your mind. I may I add that my thoughts favour the builder, I know what he has to put up with, as he sound like he has much on his plate. and regarding the boiler it may be his waiting on the plumber which are notorious to pin down.

Good builders let alone the builder getting good subbies, are about as rare as rocking horse shit.

An interesting flip in the GFS extended reaches, in just 24 hours. Yesterday, it was suggesting a very settled second half of September, with a remarkable late warm spell in the final week. Today, it has the traditional stormy autumn pattern, with many deep lows and ex-tropical systems affecting the UK.

JFF, these would be especially nasty.

Sat 24 September:

Wed 28 September:

I did let out an audible “off!” Under my breath. 😂 While it is coming up to that time of year where the Atlantic let rip, I’m hoping this Autumn will go easy on us but unlikely with the unusually warm SSTs over North Atlantic and a still warm Caribbean after a relatively quiet hurricane season.

Managed a max of 21.2 C today at my end but didn’t really feel like it due to cloud cover and low dew points. I’m downstairs and can’t be bothered to dash upstairs to look at my computer but I’m sure sure I have experienced many sub-20 C days well into late June on account of persistent northeasterlies, will have a look later.

Anyway, back to the models, a very different output by ECM showing high pressure in situ over the UK this keeping the angry Atlantic well at arms length. I’d bank that.

Jeez! That low on the 28th still has a warm core suggesting it's retaining some tropical characteristics. Very nasty. Thankfully it's way out in FI.

Well horses for course in terms of MBY, but yes from down here with a tinge or two of green-ness (sic) in the lawn, I'd be happy with the ECM evolution, so fingers crossed.

Models aside, In no way has the drought finished for sure down here, but September has delivered some much needed respite as a starter for ten (months of the year)

A warning (see link in tropical storms thread) that typhoon Merbok, unusually far north near Alaska, is likely to introduce severe distortion in the jet stream and make nonsense of any current model forecasts in a week or so's time. [I hear the cynics saying 'so what's unusual about that...]

Be that as it may, temp summary looks like yesterday's week 1 cool air pushed down from NE almost to Atlantic coasts, but in week 2 warmer again for the west (France, Holland, England); and still hot in Spain and E of the Urals both weeks. Rainfall pattern also similar Area of rain in week 1 continuing to move E-wards, to Belarus and Finland with Britain mainly dry , replaced in week 2 by heavy rain from the Atlantic into N Scotland and Norway, but dry weather now more extensive, across the Alps and into E Europe, less in France

GFS Op - ridge of HP as before moving from W of Ireland to form a centre 1025mb England Tue 20th translating into SW-NE ridge but interrupted by shallow LP developing over Britain Fri 23rd, before that gets swept up in SW-lies for all Sun 25th. The approach of ex-hurricane Fiona switches these to S-lies Fri 30th before Fiona dies out to SW of Ireland. Note that other models do not back Fiona's development into the N Atlantic,.

ECM - similar to GFS but the shallow LP develops over the N Sea so briefly N-lies before it too gives way to SW-lies. Last chart in the ECM series Mon 26th is also one which includes Fiona but still near the US at that stage.

GFS - also looks much as it did yesterday cool for 5 or 6 days (less so in W) then mean near norm but little agreement between ens members after Sun 25th; rain in increasing number of ens members and increasing quantities after that date (a couple of days earlier in N)

WX temp summary steps back from yesterday with the cooler air from the NE persisting into week 2; a steady approach to a position where the boundry between warm and cold is from just N of the Pyrenees through S of the Alps to the Black Sea. In week 1 Britain is mostly dry and E Europe mainly wet; in week 2 a band of heavy rain from the N Sea down through Italy and Greece.

GFS op - HP moving E across Britain but still near enough to be main influence on Britain until Thu 24th after which new HP cells are mainly positioned W of Ireland allowing N-lies esp down the E Coast, occasionally the HP briefly pushes in from the SW. Ex-Hurricane Fiona stays in the W Atlantic and combines with LP off Labrador Sun 25th, then moving NE-wards.

ECM differs sharply after Sun 25th; the combination of Fiona and Atlantic instead of moving NE to Svalbard turns its sights on Britain which is under a notably cold and deep LP 980mb Mon 26th only slowly filling in situ.

GEFS temps soon recover to and stay near norm (rather up and down in Scotland) with small amounts of rain in a few runs (more in N & W) after Sun 25th with no sign of any dramatically cold outlier as implied by ECM at that time

Your last post was wrong and it was right that it will be 16-17C this weekend so no dream on for 10-15c maxes here.

Will warm up next week to lowest 20's as HP move east then it cool down again with another HP coming in.  Good for keeping indoors warm enough recovery next week.

WX temp summary has switched back again, with the cool area over W Europe in week 1 now displaced for W France and Britain with something warmer from the SW in week 2. (looks like that from 2 days back). Rain in various places around a dry area in W France week 1, that area extended in week 2 to cover all France plus England.

Jet looping N of Britain with intervals of little action, the loops most pronounced now, Mon 26th, Sun 2nd

GFS Op - areas of HP developing and drifting across Britain for the next two weeks, week 1 mostly to the W with N-lies for N Sea coasts, week 2 mostly to the E with Sw-lies for Atlantic coasts. Hurricane Fiona becomes major storm 940mb (if I can count the isobars!) between Labrador and Greenland Sun 25th, but any remnants drifting past Iceland.

ECM - similar but Fiona weakens before reaching Labrador, and for the UK the HP has more of a tendency to stay to the west

GEFS - temps generally near norm, inclined to be a little above around Weds 21st and 28th, otherwise a little below. Divergence in ens members at end of run Tue 4th shows Op being optimistic and control pessimistic. Rain in the N from Thu 23rd. not much but frequent in most runs; in the S from Sat 25th, only in a few runs but those with quite high totals, in both cases rather contrary to synoptics above.

Same here.

Looking at the medium range outputs, it seems I've gone from needing the rain to having had enough of and now going back to needing it again! Our climate seems to have become inconsistent.