Not sure the models know how to deal with big storms heading up into the Arctic.  Anyway still relatively warm in North Cornwall at 14c but I've thrown a couple of logs on the burner rather than fire up the Oil C/H.

Looks like the first proper Autumnal weather of the season with a good few hours of strong to gale force winds and possibly a squall line feature on the cards for Friday, not arriving here at Kent until late night. Still room for fine tuning but such a feature is usually quite easy to forecast from afar such as now.
  At least things does look better by the weekend, though. 

WX temps; still something of a see-saw between the last remnants of summer and autumn arriving from the north. Week 1 as at present, with the colder air well spread across W Europe, beginning affect the Med; week 2 a push-back from the S with something a bit warmer in the far W (incl England) and also around the Black Sea while the colder area occupies the region from Scandinavia down to the Balkans. Rain well spread in week 1 exc Spain and Scandinavia; in week 2 (different from yesterday) dry S England to W Germany with rain circling this area.

GFS Op - current LP sliding down into N Sea with N-lies for Britain, filling but replaced at the weekend with LP 965mb Iceland projecting a trough all the way to the Channel. HP then revives from the SW, tending to form a ridge SW-NE over the UK and up to Norway until Tue 11th, nibbled at by from time to time by LP on either side. Finally Thu 13th it splits and allows trough from Greenland to France to form.

ECM - similar but until Fri 7th, when it moves to cover Britain, the ridge of HP is placed over France with moist-looking SW-lies for Scotland

GEFS - mean temps rising from cool now to a little above norm, highest around Wed 5th, then dropping back, definitely cooler by 12th. Rain event for Sat 1st, most ens members disagree with Op (i.e. WX above) and include some rain on some days thereafter, frequent in Scotland, but no consensus. 

Massive difference between the GFS & ECM OPs at day 10 Gfs brings in low pressure, that slowly fills and hangs about till the end of the run bringing cool and wet conditions 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0

Ecm on the other hand builds pressure from the south with settled maybe foggy*? Weather

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Be interesting to see what the outcome is. 

WX temps: the existing pattern of cool W Europe, milder on Atlantic coasts (though less mild than forecast yesterday), definitely cold in far NE Europe continues for next two weeks, with some of the cooler weather pushing  into Turkey in week 2. Rainfall pattern also not unlike that shown yesterday, widely distributed in week 1 but in week 2 a dry area for France and Germany, rain across N Atlantic to Scandinavia, and esp heavy in C Med. 

GFS Op: depression in N Sea filling, replaced by active trough extending S from 960mb Iceland Sat 1st, then rise of pressure from SW at first extending just far enough N to fend off Atlantic LP but with strong SW-lies for western regions, later culminating in intense HP 1040mb Scotland Thu 13th (but a big change from yesterday when LP shown all the way across the Atlantic to include Britain at this time). An ex-hurricane on Fri 14th near US coast, could go anywhere.

ECM : similar to GFS but ridge of HP flatter and producing W-lies rather than SW-lies

GFS : temps up and down not far from norm, coolest now, warmest around Wed 5th, rain event on Sat 1st and spits and spots thereafter in different ens members, most likely after Mon 10th.

WX temps much the same as they have been; seasonally cool across W Europe with a little warmth on the Atlantic fringe; small patches of freezing conditions moved from Russia to Iceland and Norwegian mountains. Rain in week 1 on N Atlantic incl Britain and also a N_S band in E Europe but not entirely dry elsewhere; week 2, yesterday's dry patches have disappeared and there is rain on the Atlantic as above and also through the Med.

GFS: LP 965mb near Iceland Sat 1st with trough to Britain as previously forecast giving way to HP from the Atlantic mostly near S Britain with W/SW winds through to Wed 12th when shallow trough swings in cover Britain 1010mb Fri 14th

GEFS: in the S mean temp rising to above norm around Wed 5th then back to a little below (with little ens agreement) for the remainder of the forecast period, rain events for the weekend then mostly dry until later on. Scotland, temp trend similar but bits and pieces of rain throughout esp in W. 

ECM: similar to GFS though the Atlantic HP is closer and from time to time actually centred over UK

Hopes for high-pressure influenced settled conditions next week after the weekend's changeable stuff seems to be slowly evaporating with each run, a bit like our chances for snow in the Winter months. However, as a trade off it looks like temperatures being above average so that'll save on heating costs.

Most HP are cloud generator and they only bring cloud and very temperate temperatures, no diurnal and very boring.  I see the sun here most when it on the edge of exiting LP before HP bring clouds with it like during the Queen funeral Bank Holiday weekend..   We used to see temperatures up to 22-24C regularly for a day or 2 in early October in the post, more so in the 90's.

I was just checking that with Heathrow’s data, a probable hotspot, and there were 6 days in ten years of October data that reached the 22-24°C range in the 90s.

Back to the present and after the next day or two things don’t look too bad for the time of the year, relatively settled and not overly chilly.

Good!!

We've had too much high pressure already during this year and I'm sure that a lot of people will be much happier if we can at least, start to see those massive rainfall deficits being made up.

Plus, that might also result in me actually regaining some of my own interest in the weather which had largely evaporated just recently as a result of that largely predominately high pressure dominated pattern of weather which has been very persistent during the vast majority of this year, becoming increasingly boring and uninteresting over time as a result.

WX still seasonally cool across western Europe with a little extra warmth on western coasts, but cold, even freezing, patches appearing in Norway and Iceland. The Med reasonably warm but some cooler patches even there. Rain in week 1 on the Atlantic incl Britain and across to W Russia; in week 2 dry from S Ireland across to France, and rain to N and especially S of this.

Jet streak to S England now, to Scotland Wed 5th, fading and clearing completely by Tue 11th, re-appearing in the Med and separately S Greenland Sat 15th

GFS Op - current LP near Iceland with trough to UK filling but still deep enough to enforce SW/W-lies for UK for the coming week before moving to Norway Sun 9th with brief N-lies. Then HP uncertainly covering Britain for the following week before collapsing Sun 16th and a general area of LP from Spain to Baltic with its deepest centre near Spain.

ECM - resembles GFS

GEFS - briefly warmer around Wed 5th then mean temp near or slightly below norm for rest of forecast. Rain around now, easing for a day or two, then resuming on a frequent basis in N/NW, intermittently S/SE

Yes and under 22C were many times on first week or 2 from my data with 1995 had the most I recorded twice 26C with most days at 20 to 25C for 20 days before Autumn set in last week then winter set in last week of November with snow.  I see possible 20C next week if there sunshine around.  

Not much to add to yesterday's chart for temp and early rain: WX still seasonally cool across western Europe with a little extra warmth on western coasts, but cold, even freezing, patches appearing in Norway and Iceland. The Med reasonably warm but some cooler patches even there. Rain in week 1 on the Atlantic incl Britain and across to W Russia; but rain different in week 2 with dry weather reserved for Spain and the N Atlantic including Britain and Norway continuing the wet weather from week 1.

GFS Op: mobile W-ly regime in place with LP strongly established in N Atlantic and HP mainly over France and S of that. In this flow a fleeting HP Mon 10th and OTOH a trough well S Sun 16th

ECM : more of a block arising on Mon 10th with N-lies developing on the Tue

GEFS : as before a little warmer around Wed 5th after which mean temp consistently a little below norm, taking in a few quite cold outliers, more scatter in ens members further N. Rain in the S tomorrow and Thu 6th and more generally after Thu 13th; the N misses out on tomorrow's rain but mostly like the S after that except for the NW where the rain never really stops.

Yuck 😫 

What a boring chart imby

Mildish nothingness 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

Or great if your further north and like wind n rain 🌧 🙄 

Yep the Atlantic stretching it's legs in preparation for its annual Winter march across the UK. 

WX temp - no surprises as weather continues cool though slightly above seasonal average for W Europe , heat in Med declining and freezing patches appearing in Iceland and Norway. Rain also  much as yesterday, blowing in from the Atlantic to countries bordering the Atlantic; separate patches in E Europe week  and the Med week 2.

Jet from W across Scotland Wed 5th but not lasting; then from the NW first through Ireland Thu 13th and then continuing strong from the W over Britain

GFS Op - W/SW spell throughout with HP (Mon 3rd, Mon 10th) and LP (Wed 5th,  Thu 13th) taking turns as the dominant influence. LP comes well S on Tue 18th end of run.

ECM - similar, W-lies a bit more blocked by HP after Mon 10th

GEFS - a little warmth in the S at first but otherwise mean a little below seasonal norm throughout with increased scatter in ens from Mon 10th. Largely dry in S until Thu 13th in S, then rain in many but not all ens members. Similar temp profile in N England & Scotland but with increased scatter. A more complex pattern of rain, fairly continuous, mostly in NW until later on, except the NE having its own spike Wed 6th.

WX temp - no surprises as weather continues  as yesterday cool though slightly above seasonal average for W Europe , heat in Med declining and freezing patches appearing in Iceland and Norway.  (now also the Alps) Rain also  much as yesterday, blowing in from the Atlantic to countries bordering the Atlantic; separate patches in E Europe week  and the Med week 2 but the latter patch now extended to cover France and particularly heavy in the Balkans

GFS Op - mobile westerly with a series of deep LPs from Iceland to Norway. Within this stream HP now & Wed 19th , LP Mon 10th & Sun 16th, the latter breaking off a trough down into the Med and presumably responsible for wet weather there.

GEFS - In the S mild now, then near norm to Thu 13th (but Op briefly a cold outlier), then cool to Mon 17th but with Op &  Control leading a recovery towards the end. Rain in some but not all ens members from Mon 10th, dry until then. In Scotland, temp profile similar but episodes of rain from time to time before 19th and more frequent later esp in W; this rainfall pattern also includes NW England and to a lesser extent the SW.

ECM - similar to GFS, LP trough on Mon 10th more localised over Britain but HP recovering more quickly after and LP not getting down to the Med

WX temps remain a little above average for W Europe, warm in the Med and around the Black Sea, but in week 2 cool air moving into Spain from the NE and rather cold in Norway & N Baltic. Rain from Atlantic including W Britain week 1, some in Med, dry C Europe; widely distributed across Europe week 2, dry near Black Sea. 

GFS Op - general W-ly flow to Thu 13th (with something of an embedded trough Sun 9th) but then the Icelandic LP moves to N Sea 965mb with N-lies to follow Sat 15th. Pressure then flattens out but HP grows SW of Ireland and with LP 980mb Norway Thu 20th there is a renewed N-ly blast esp to E coast.

GEFS - temps in SE dropping to a steady seasonal norm for this week, then up to 3C below norm for rest of forecast; rain in many ens members from about Tue 11th (though op & control mostly dry). In the N temps this week up and down near norm then cool as above; very wet in NW Scotland throughout, to simply wet in SW England with the heaviest rain around Sat 15th

ECM - like GFS until Thu 13th when sharply different, the Icelandic LP moving S to Rockall 980mb with strong SW-lies for Britain - no sign of N-lies

Just noticed meteociel have more detailed ECM ensembles be handy for the coming winter 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php

 https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwfens_cartes.php

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwfens.php?model=1

In the here and now it's about as boring as can get imby stuck in no man's land 

Autumn is the worst season in the UK unlike other countries have wide variety of Autumn weather set ups.

WX temps little changed from yesterday or indeed from the last 5 days: a little above average for W Europe, warm in the Med and around the Black Sea, but in week 2 cool air moving into Spain from the NE and rather cold in Norway & N Baltic. Perhaps a little milder week 1 near Atlantic coasts. Rainfall pattern also similar to yesterday: on Atlantic including W Britain week 1, some in Med, dry C Europe; widely distributed across Europe week 2, dry near Black Sea  perhaps more concentrated in the Alps and Italy.

GFS Op: W-ly regime continues to Fri 14th (embedded trough late Sun 9th) then deep LP NW Scotland 965mb bringing in N-lies briefly as it moves quickly to Baltic. HP then centred on Atlantic often spreading far enough to influence Britain but  letting troughs run down the N Sea from Wed 19th.

GEFS: temps near norm to Fri 14th then definitely cool to end of forecast (21st). Dry at first in S, though in N separate peaks Fri 7th and Mon 10th; then rain generally in many ens members esp Fri/Sat 14/15th

ECM: similar to GFS except that the LP on Fri 14th is further S - 985mb N Ireland

Most of the models are playing about with the idea of a period of storminess on the 14th-15th. Being 9 to 10 days away it is most certainly subject to changes but forgive me for being jittery on the 35th anniversary of The Great Storm.