https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ndj-v1.pdf

 

Slightly higher probability of cooler, drier and calmer conditions across the three months

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If you are quick Christmas looks festive and possibly disruptive on CFS. Given it changes 4 times a day have a look for a bit of fun.

Thanks 😎

Do long term met office winter forecasts at this stage ever bear any resemblance (before the flipflop revisions) ?

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The fabled Channel Low being fed with cold air on Fri 23rd Dec - but it doesn't last!

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Good question.

I’ve seen them moderated, diluted and even complete U-turn in the space of a month before. I think Autumn 2016 was a good example, with colder than average conditions being touted around this time of year before a total change to mild in the late November revision. 

I wonder if anyone has any record of the contingency planners Autumn 2009 or 2010? …I have a hunch they were not publicly available  back then, or published at all. 

 

WX temp summary; Europe as a whole still warm for the time of year with absolute values still quite high around coasts from Biscay past Spain and into the Med but not far inland. In week 2 a solid advance of cold air from the NE to the Russian border and the -16C isotherm peeping over the top of the chart for the first time. Rain mostly based in the Atlantic including Britain, small patches elsewhere, moving N-wards in week 2 but not leaving S England dry as per yesterday's forecast.

GFS Op: Current LP off NW Scotland and associated trough to SE England (a much more defined feature than previously forecast by this model) filling and irregularly moving NE by Friday. New LP  and its successors parking themselves off NW Ireland and/or up to Iceland right through to Wed 16th, just a hint of pressure rise after that. Strong SW-lies throughout , notably Thu 10th.

ECM: much as GFS, just a brief ridge of HP on Sat 5th, good news for bonfire enthusiasts

GFS: predictable from the above synopses, cool with rain in most places in week 1, mild or very mild in week 2 with heaviest rain in NW but only bits and pieces in the SE

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I'd take that NOW , it's JFF of course and blink and you miss it 

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Yes. Cold weather has no place this year. As I get older the less cold and snow appeals to me. The chase for cold and snow was a pursuit based on nostalgia more than anything. A somewhat childish pursuit IMO.

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That's a bit strong Steve 

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Maybe we need some fresh young blood on the forum.
I will still passionately hope for snow, although at least if it is mild then we are saving significant money.

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There are still plenty of other places on the internet for that type of old tosh. 

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Yep ! 

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😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

Maybe you should make another Buxton Premier Inn booking this year Steve! 

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Desperately!

I wouldn't want the sort of cats-fighting-in-a-sack antics that NW can often see, but I do wonder why so many have drifted to there over the years - even good, regular posters from here. Although I guess some snide digs by certain people never helps.

As for wanting snow being 'childish'... I don't ever want to lose that inner child! 

 

 

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Sshhhh. So 2016 lol ! 

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Facebook is horrendous.  Firstly, lots of people who just take the piss, you think why they have joined a weather group.  Might sound snobby but the discussion is not at the right level, people who join are not really weather enthusiasts. 

 

Yet to find anywhere as good as TWO, we just need a few new posters I think

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I fight with my inner child every year. I start of with such strong intentions of never getting sucked into it all. By the third week in November my resolve has crumbled, by Mid January I've crumbled. 

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I think most who've passed through TWO over the years (some found the bed to be comfy and stayed!) fall into the 'weather enthusiast', with varying levels of meteorological knowledge. And plenty of those - especially in the early years - were there to try to find out what people with a lot more met knowledge were prediting for winter/summer. Learning so much along the way has been the added bonus (can you tell I'm talking a lot about myself here )

There really was a heyday for TWO in terms of weather discussion. I remember in the early 00's when a new GFS run would be rolling out during a period of 'potential' in winter, and half a dozen people would be giving an excitable rolling commentary on it.

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Absolutely,  I have learnt most of my weather knowledge from TWO especially in the first few years, so grateful to all the members (and Brian) who have made this possible. 

At critical times, I quite enjoy catching up via the rolling commentary rather than looking directly at the model run, seems less nerve racking and can share pain with others.  But doesn't happy enough anymore these days. 

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You have many in your camp Tim - Steve is just too old, rumour has it, knitting takes up a lot of his time nowadays 

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A combination of 1947 , 1963 ,1978 ,1981 , 1991 and 2010 will do just fine IMO 

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I had a quick go at liecing together a 'perfect' winter as a composite of months from different year I've been alive.

Was thinking - Dec 2010, Jan 1982 and March 2013

A bit stuck for Feb, as none leap out in my memory - this century at least, Feb has not delivered any notable snowfalls here. From what I've read, Feb 79 was OK but at that age (I was just 7), snow events kind of merge into one big memory ball. Feb 91 maybe, but I was in Sheffield for the best of that spell (very snowy!)

Where's Kev Bradshaw when you need him? 

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And then end up being disappointed again by March. 😂 I’m the same, as I’ve grown older I start to hope for benign mild useable weather over cold and snow but I just know I’ll end up pressing nose to window while lamp watching for the first forecast snowfall. One thing for certain is I now completely dislike strong winds and heavy rain when I also used to hope for stormy weather.

Can tell that the model outputs has been holding little interest of late, although the far reaches of the 06z FGS (not a typo) run is showing the first Beast From The East, very unlikely to verify of course but something to fantasise over for now.

 

EDIT: Just realised what I did there. Fantasising over cold and snow!

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1991 was a classic Feb for that early heavy snowfall which I recall from my childhood.
I am reliably informed 1986 was a classic for amazingly consistent cold although I was too young then to remember it first hand .
My late nan used to talk about 1947