Dave, looks good.

just forwarded the file to you now with the predictions so you can work your magic

Cheers for that Dave, aligns well with some tracking I've also been doing out of interest. Just one big anomaly - I have moomin75 on a cumulative error of 10.42 rather than 8.16.

Presumably they revised one of their estimates (...by a lot!) but the table shared in the thread still had the original one?

Regardless, this month has made the competition a lot more exciting for most of us, by reducing for example the 1st to 7th place cumulative score range from 1.81 to just 0.89°C, following what was by far JMM2005's largest error so far this year (1.95°C). The previous largest was just 0.85°C (April), an extraordinary run of high accuracy.

AP Snowman also had their largest error so far with 1.75°C (previously 1.32°C in January) and although SSWD has leapfrogged into 2nd, their 1.05°C error has also contributed to the 'evening out' of the upper reaches of the table.

I'm feeling fortunate that a 1.51°C error hasn't put me further down the table, owing to the extreme nature of the final CET (5th warmest on record).

The Nov CET spread features a lot of very mild predictions, and I can see why given the near-term outlook. Next week could be extremely mild for the time of year. Thereafter, there are signs of cooler weather but no clear signal for cold conditions until the final third.

MJO-driven positive atmospheric angular momentum anomalies are propagating poleward as I type this and should reach the polar latitudes in the 2nd half of Nov. With that comes a high probability of a -NAO episode, which could mean some cold weather for the UK - BUT this is far from certain, as the -NAO could be east-based (cold or very cold UK), west-based (often mild UK unless very large blocking high), or balanced (chilly or cold UK).

I've decided to gamble on there being a cold spell of some sort that moderates a large positive CET anomaly. Am I sitting comfortably? Not at all! 

Dave's chart has the same value as my table.

Where  has it gone wrong ?

We're fighting for that "prize" 

Seriously though, we're only about 10 miles apart (I'm Leyland these days), perhaps we've both underestimated the warm conditions in the south especially this year and that's influenced our predictions too much?

If you can ping me details of how you got to your figure I'll take a look through the data and see where the discrepancy is and just check what's going on? (If it's easier PM me and I'll give you my email)