Trending milder? 

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Let’s play that game of ‘Spot the outlier’, shall we?

If not entirely a complete outlier, certainly with precious little support in the latter stages.

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On balance, average is clearly the form horse. It's just that if perturbation has to go off on one, you'd prefer that it wasn't the Op. But it's too far in FI to be worrying about it yet. If I wanted to worry, though, I'd worry that it's not great to be worrying about whether or not we'll manage to see bog standard average temperatures for the entirety of the rest of November. There's no sign whatspever of anything of interest for coldies.

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Interesting that both the 18Z GFS op and the parallel (which becomes the Op at the end of the month) both end with quite significant blocking to our NE. Possibly more potential with the Parallel but the Op sets up two significant upper blocks from Iceland all the way to NW Russia.

 

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Interesting developments to our NE as we head towards December although any cold air is thousands of miles away in Russia. Also not much evidence of energy from the Atlantic heading South.

The charts are not without interest though and we have not had a sustained E/NE for a while. On the law of averages one is due.

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WX temp charts stlll have Eurotemps above average for week 1 though less so than before and with cold air threatening from Russia. In week 2 the cold air (0C isotherm) makes a big advance and covers nearly everywhere east of a line Serbia-Norway (major exception, Baltic coasts),with some much colder stuff not far east of Poland. Any remaining mild weather is to be found around Spain. Rain in week 1 from Atlantic down through Britain to Adriatic splitting into two in week 2 divided by a dry area developing from Spain up to Finland.

GFS Op - HP currently over C Europe (close enough to control British weather this weekend with mild S-lies) first forming a ridge N-wards and slipping to the east; then reviving as an intense HP somewhere near Scandinavia through to Mon 21st when peak pressure 1055mb W Russia. From Sun 27th it extends a ridge W-wards across N Britain and Ireland. In the meantime LP is active on the Atlantic and in E Russia. The former pushes forward notably Thu 17th (965 mb off NI; not as close but nevertheless severe SW gales Sun 20th and Fri 25th); the latter generates a mostly NE-ly flow to bring in the cold air referred to in WX above.

ECM - generally agrees with GFS on pressure distribution though peak pressures not as high; this allows LP to come closer to Britain Thu 24th 970mb W Ireland at end of run (compare Fri 25th in GFS)

GEFS - Rain and normal temps resume on Tue 15th for the forecast period; fairly good agreement between ens members, and perhaps a little drier towards the end (from Sun 27th). Least wet in E England & SE Scotland; some big rainfall totals in SW England and NI with occasional bursts of milder weather in the SW.

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Still tempting to think cold will win later this month.

If Met office long range text is to come to fruition then you’d expect a continued/ amplified picture in the way of high latitude blocking into FI

The elevated heights to the north east on many of the recent runs suggest some potential for something wintry further down the line, so not necessarily an Atlantic fest as we go towards December.

 

Thats what I am thinking, all this dragging mild weather up from Azores etc has been keeping the Arctic plunges from escaping, looking like sea ice is more than average of last few years which suggests the Arctic has been cooling nicely.

 

There appears to be no new, or recent Atlantic tropical cyclone / hurricanes, allowing for a week or so time lag, tends to result in no major depressions in North Atlantic, so possibly going to see jet stream change its trajectory over the Atlantic.

 

Putting all this together, I too agree that there is an increasing chance of some wintery weather, but probably not until early or mid December.  Over next fortnight I think we need to be looking more towards Iceland and Faroes (rather than Atlantic) to see what will be coming.

To give an example of where I am coming from, look at this weather chart for Iceland, look at today winds are southerly, slide the bar to Thursday and the winds are north easterly

https://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/areas/

The idea that you can have west-south west jet stream and winds 180 degrees opposite doesn’t make sense to me, so looks like something more interesting than just losing southerly winds is starting to happen in northern Atlantic.

 

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This constant barrage of warm from the south has actually been caused by extreme cold across western parts of the US & Canada. 

Will be some other pattern set up by December to make that come in above average to. These days it seems 90% of the pieces need to be in place to get an average month temperature wise let alone below. 

Random location in the Midlands 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=271&y=83&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

Most runs not even showing a grass frost yet 1or 2 show brief air frost. 

Makes you realize frostless and snowless winters in swathes of the south will become the norm very quickly. These were the preserve of the Scilly Isles before rampaging warming set in. 

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No sign of anything remotely cold. Looks very wet, flooding becoming likely even in the South. 

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Indeed. If you live in the South / South East inparticular this Autumn has been a glance into the future.
March and October are fast becoming 'useful' months with February and November the new shoulder months before real cold (not thd extreme stuff just that which needs a coat) .
I view anything above about 18c as shorts and T shirt weather and, provided it's dry, good for being outdoors. This October had plenty of 18c day maximums in the Southeast.

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Absolutely - you can see that in gardens across the Southern half of the UK. Many plants that used to be the preserve of Scilly and the far Southwest are now prevelant. Think Agapanthus and Echiums for example. 

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WX temp charts confirm the steady movement of cold air into Europe from the far NE, as far as Poland on a narrow front in week 1, more broadly and a touch further in week 2., and some very cold stuff appearing in W Siberia. Mild weather in Biscay in week 1 retreats to S Spain in week 2. Some parts of E Europe (e.g. the Baltic states) below norm for the first time for many months. Rain on Atlantic coasts and down to the Adriatic in both weeks, but becoming very dry in W Russia & Finland.

GFS Op shows current HP over C Europe being squeezed between LPs on Atlantic and near Urals by Tue 15th. The latter provides for the influx of Siberian air into Russia; the former develops 955mb Rockall Thu 17th and projects a trough into C Europe which by Sat 19th bridges the gap between the two main LPs. The HP is driven N to Finland 1040mb Tue 22nd with Britain dominated by LP 960 mb off SW Ireland. This again detaches a portion SE into Europe (1000mb Marseilles) while the main centre resumes near Greenland Sat 26th. The position of the LPs suggests a showery returning polar maritime airflow from Greenland, over and above any fronts.

ECM has the pattern similar but places the LP on Thu 17th further E, 975mb SW Scotland, and that on Tue 22nd troughing well S-wards with S-ly gales and possibly a late burst of warmth for a couple of days.

GEFS temps back down to norm from Monday and staying there throughout with no more than the usual scatter of ens members. Rain also starts on Mon and doesn't let up with some of the highest totals in the SW.

 

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And in the wild, too, where gardeners aren't there to provide protection.

Allium triquetrum (aka three-cornered leek, snowbell or onion weed) was a native of SW Europe and in my old field guide first published 50 years ago was said to be confined to the SW peninsula and rare even there. Now it's become so invasive that it's classified as a noxious weed, illegal to introduce into the wild, widespread across S England, and I've seen it as far north as Southport, Lancs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allium_triquetrum 

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So, as has been the case for days now, it looks like the anomalously mild or very mild conditions have another couple of days left before things become more average for the time of year. Along with that comes unsettled conditions and for many copious amounts of rain.

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What causes what though, couldn't the very mild conditions here ultimately cause the cold conditions in western parts of North America? You could work your way all around the globe saying this caused that, I think it's all rather chicken & egg, no initial cause to anything, just everything just reacts to everything else.

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In this case would it not, at least to an extent, be the one that occurred first?

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Or even had the longest period of sustained southerly up or northern flow down?

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The GFS is in a rotten mood this morning with its idea of spitting out compact but strong southern tracking lows with Kent right in the firing line by this time next weekend. What's happened to the more benign high pressure set up?!

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What's happened is that the US has had an exceptionally cold spell and as that cold air hits the Atlantic, bam. Same old story...

'Tis the season of GFS dartboards, too:

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Thought that's usually a December to February thing. Stupid US, I guess we are at this time of the year where we get bombarded by compact lows but we also do get to enjoy relatively benign Novembers. 

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Very boring type but at least we can see more in the way of sunshine under zonal set up in between rain than any cloudy HP.  Not seen the sun this month much due to too much HP around than in October which was mostly HP free month.