WX temps show the mass of cold air from Russia still very much present, and part of E Europe below norm for a change, from week 1; but its advance pauses in week 2 at Poland (and a few mountainous areas further W) while it is reinforced with some very much colder air to the NE. Britain and W Europe cooler but not much so; any mildness is to be found around the coasts of Spain and the Med. Rain extensively over the Atlantic anywhere S of Norway, including Britain, and also all the way through the Med in both weeks.

GFS Op = LP on Atlantic repeatedly pushing troughs across Britain and often onwards across Europe to link up with LP over S Russia, leaving an area of HP parked over N Norway. For Britain the deepest and closest LPs are Thu 17th, Tue 22nd, Thu 24th, brief respite Sun 27th, resuming Tue 29th 950mb W Scotland.

ECM similar though less projection across Europe and finishing with a really close LP 950mb Thu 24th SW Ireland.

GEFS - normal temps and rain throughout, heaviest in the SW; control run is an outlier with an uptick in temp after 2 weeks, for the optimists to hang on to

ECM suggesting the mythical air frost in southern England a possibility on Saturday.

I'm not sure if low after low is really needed any more after all the recent rain. Perhaps low after high after low might be better!

Maybe he mean like like what we had in October rain and lot of above average sunshine so it win-win for drought easing and indoor warmer.

GFS v16.3 is available now on TWO here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfsp.aspx

Production GFS continues to be:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx

Let's hope they're southerly-tracking lows, as even a hundred or so miles north of you we've had more than enough rain for a while.

I'm very interested in the models on here at the moment, more for the potential for heavy rain (although I would prefer snow) as SW Water have promised everyone in Cornwall £30 off their water bill (to encourage lower water use) if Coliford Reservoir (Bodmin Moor) is 30% full by 31st December.  It's surprisingly still only 17% full even after we've had 6 inches of rain in the last 2 weeks (well that's what we've had in Bude anyway). 

Looks like we're due for much more rain but the weather fronts seem to narrow as they approach Cornwall and then expand once they've gone through leaving us with lower rainfall than initially expected.

You need low after low to top up the ground water levels in preparation for the High-pressure dominated easterlies we'll be getting in winter 

Fair - though I think most reservoirs where I am are around the 60% level still.

Triffic

Evidence/charts? 

The ensemble mean jet stream pattern hardly shifts throughout the 06z run, so like you I’m not sure upon what his comment is based.

GFSP is now running in parallel with GFS rather than an hour or so behind as is sometimes the case.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfsp.aspx

Both para and main run push the cold air away pretty quickly.

Lovely warmth appearing on the GFSP this afternoon.

shows how tough it is to get the cold air to advect west, we have a good chance this year but need some luck! 

Ice days on the way. 

Yes interesting to see the Jetstream modelled to be tracking a long way South, though whether it actually comes off like that is doubtful. And in any case there's no cold air to tap into at the moment, and no doubt in a month the jet will be back over the North of Scotland and we'll be in mild South Westerlies.

UK Met also not without interest for cold weather fans.

You're such a tease, Brian .