MOGREPS-G offers reasonable support for a sinking or sliding low pressure. Surprised there isn't more interest TBH.

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It’s more interesting to interpret what the weather might be, as shown by the model output rather than what you think it will be, based on I’m not sure what?

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Ive been tempted to come on here and ramp at the slight signal of sliding lows. But ive been burnt a few times raising the prospects for them to completely vanish.

All ill say is the charts arent a million miles from drawing in a stiff easterly. Literally a couple hundred miles in most runs.

Just need a little correction here or there and the end of november could look very different

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There is plenty of cold ready to tap into our east & North. 

Moscow for example is already below freezing - only 1500 miles away.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/ucftnugpr#?date=2022-11-15

 

Or Lapland brrr....

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/ukn3yf8gc#?date=2022-11-15

 

 

Is Steve Murr still a member? Usually when we see the first post from him do I take an interest

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Firmly excited - Gavin. I agree with the last few posts, we have seen false dawns, though this has been modelled for some time and is getting more consistent. It looks like the ingredients are there. It is remarkable how rare these Scandinavian high pressures are these days. They come in all shapes and sizes and not all deliver cold to all of the UK. Some are dry and some bring moisture along on their southern edge. When the southerly wind pushes all the way to Svaalbard - this pattern develops, whether from the warm air advection then cooling as so setting up a clockwise spin, or whether mechanical, I am not sure, but this is all but nailed on to occur. It’s less certain how large the anticyclone will be and how pervasive. 
It reminds me of the 1993 November Scandi-high. Of course seas were cooler then, but after a stiff easterly was set up by a super Scandi-high, it seemed to take an age for the cold air to be dragged across Russia to the Baltic’s and to us, turning rain fronts to sleet and finally to snow, dry frozen and real-deal snow. It lasted a week, but the set up as a whole was 12 days, so much of the set up was “wasted” in the advection of the cold clockwise around the high. 
Not so sure if the shape is going to be right for this one, except Scotland, but if it was, I am also not sure if the warm sea temperatures would allow snowfall in the UK, low dew points or not. However, I would love to be proved wrong on that and wake up to a morning blanket of snow, from an easterly bearing cold front. 

At school in the 60s - there were frequent Scandi highs, and often a snow flurry would occur in November - in the afternoon, not settling necessarily. Those east coast snow flurries were so common as to be incidental. They simply served to warn of the More significant snow to come in Jan’ and Feb.’ 

They are soooo rare these days, that I confess to being excited to seeing this one, though not expecting anything from it. I just like the drier air from the east and the light, the rustle of leaves in a lazy east wind, that whisper the hinted promise of potential transformational snow. We took it for granted in the 60s, but I cant remember doing so afterwards, even in the (at times) snowy 80s.

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Disappointing GFS this morning as the strong jet squishes the Scandi High and undercuts it. This serves to keep the Uk firmly in the Atlantic flow. Good for the heating bill though. The jet is stronger at this time of the year and I more so than decades past, so this is not surprising. Highs that might have pushed west in the past, seem to get curtailed. Good to see one and an interesting pattern to ensure aquifer refilling weather. Small mercies.

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Yes this is what tends to happen in the "modern era" winter, the Jetstream flattens and corrects further northwards as we get nearer the time, and any modelled cold weather is replaced by mild South Westerlies. I fully expect that the same thing will happen again this Winter.

 

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But if this is known, why don't the models account for it and we subsequently see even fewer cold scenarios, even in FI, than we do at the moment?

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Shouldn’t focus now be on the new Op (currently the parallel run), since it goes live in a couple of weeks?

That continues to offer potential and, contrary to the Op, doesn’t bring endless westerlies into the country; indeed there’s significant blocking through the Arctic at the end.

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Temp summary charts continue to show Europe as a whole cooling over the next two weeks, but the cold weather in E Europe is tending to move more to the S or SW i.e. to Ukraine and Romania, with now quite a large area below norm. Britain and W Europe hanging on to temps just above norm, anything better than this has slipped down to Spain and the Med. Rain continuing over Atlantic coastal countries for both weeks, with the extra patch over France and Italy in week 1 detaching itself and moving to the eastern Med in week 2.

GFS Op - LP in the Atlantic dominating British weather to Sat 26th, occasionally projecting a better defined trough forward (975mb Wales Thu 17th, 990 mb N Sea Tue 22nd) but blocked from progress further E by Euro HP 1035 mb Baltic States around Mon 21st which serves the dual purpose of preventing cold air moving W-wards and diverting Tue 17th's LP trough down to the Med. LPs then take a more N-ly track as pressure rises from the SW and forms a cell covering Britain-Denmark Mon 1st (but a local cell, not linking further E - expect surface cooling with frost and fog, not deep cold)

ECM - like GFS to start with but the LP Tue 22nd is to the SW (985 mb Wales) and doesn't clear away, with a reload on Fri 25th.

GEFS - mean temp near norm and frequent rain (esp towards the SW) until the end of the month; several ens members suggest drier and milder weather at the very end though the majority stay close to the mean.

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I can't see the verification stats but I doubt there will be much difference TBH. One thing I have noticed, but it could just be chance when I've checked the stats, is that UKM, GFS and CMC are now often level pegging. It looks like GFS and CMC have made up a lost ground in the last few years.

 

 

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Perhaps there will be a Christmas present?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=cfs&var=1&run=0&time=960&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

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Would be great if it turned out that way!

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Major flaw in your statement, each year month and week are different. Tend to doesn’t wash when you have multiple factors. The UK doesn’t tend to reach 40c. It might end up with zonality but there are many factors which influence how it will end up. I suggest you watch the models and don’t search for an I told you so moment!

Just had a look at that and the period after! Country would shut down for a couple of weeks, cold and snow w cause mayhem. It is great to see these possibilities even if they are unlikely 

Interesting GFSP 6z.

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GFS op run ends with a block not seen for a long time which could introduce an almost text book easterly. Way off but nice to see

Both versions of the GFS Op 06z persist with a strong signal for blocking to our east. The new parallel positions it too far south but the alignment  and position shifts a little more favourably towards the end of the run; the current Op is a little better for advecting the cold westwards.

As always, what will the ensemble reveal, if anything….

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That could easily verify - We just need more charts to emulate this. Just remember this is only like November 2010.

 

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There is certainly some more interesting model output starting to appear in a number of op runs as we head into FI. Let's hope the trend is maintained.

Re Nov 2010, I don't know what it was like elsewhere but I don't recall there being a great deal of rain that month in the period leading up to the start of the big freeze; it was a fairly quiet and uneventful month until that point. I do recall November 2009 as being very wet and mild throughout, though.

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One ensemble member of one run of one model. What looks more likely is a continuation of the current unsettled conditions with near average temperatures, lots of rain and strong winds with hints of SEly muck. Nasty and not untypical for November.

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Don't show this to Ofgem and their beloved energy companies, they will be gnashing their teeth again. 

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_168_1.png
Seen worse charts for the end of November
We are getting to that time when the PV can become quite strong signs it won’t be so strong this year

Yes, the recent models cannot let go of those heights to the north east and if we are seeing that out to 7 to 10 days, then beyond that it is up for grabs irrespective of output over that period.  Interesting, but only a tease at the moment of course.  Also, despite my passion for wintry weather, mixed feelings this year with so many people struggling.