was more the potential at 216 which to be fair doesn’t get there

Monster block on ecm this morning

Yes those comments have baffled me a bit too. There has been and continues to be little evidence to support a very mild end to November and start to December, or indeed a very cold one either! There are signs that things may become less unsettled in the medium term which would be very welcome after the last few days especially.

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Temps of 12c to 14c in the South to end November. I know we have got used to above average temperatures but I would say that's very mild . Chillier in the far north though.

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The way the GEFS continue to diverge in the longer range is indicative IMO that the option of an easterly influence towards months end is increasing.
A slack, sub-severe one at this stage (colder members) but easterly nether the less.
Compared to recent years and contrary to some of the commentary on here, that makes a change.

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agreed, the signs of a settle down with increased high pressure influenced weather is a strong growing trend. Where the high pressure ends up will of course be key!

Martin

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Incidentally what would you describe as the far north? If for example it includes my location then it means that Birmingham is in the far south of the U.K.  (Unless of course we include Shetland in which case the Lake District is in the far south).

To be fair GFS does show a few days of above average temperatures in the south towards the end of the month. Not quite a “very mild spell” but milder than average for sure on that model. The ECM is much less mild at around 8°C max in the south by day 10. As I said no real clear signal of a very mild spell but things can change at that range.

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WX temps show the cold air (0C isotherm) drawing back a little in week 1, but moving S & W again in week 2; still staying just E of Poland, but everywhere E of France also beginning to cool down, and very cold (-16 C isotherm) creeping W of the Urals. Britain and the Atlantic seaboard look normal for the time of year. Rain on the Atlantic coasts and central Med, but in week 2looking a bit less wet generally and esp in SE Britain.

FAX predicts little let-up in the rain in the coming week; LP 980mb late Mon into Tue Bristol Channel plus fronts crossing the country every day, tending to stall in the N Sea, under influence of LP W of Ireland

GFS Op also shows the LP on Tue, placing it C England, and the larger LP on the Atlantic for the rest of the week with secondaries affecting Britain from time to time (notably intense but small 980mb Clyde Fri 26th, also 1000mb E Anglia Mon 28th). Then a rise of pressure from the SW linking to 1040mb Norway Thu 1st but this ridge splits allowing troughs to move down the N Sea to Italy by Sat 3rd; and finally the HP withdraws to Russia with a large shallow LP 995mb Biscay Tue 6th.

ECM has a pressure distribution similar to GFS, but the controlling LP on the Atlantic has no secondaries and s-ly gales appear instead; then although the ridge of HP sets up as per GFS, it looks like being more of a fixture (ECM sequence ends on Wed 30th but it doesn't look like breaking up on Thu 1st)

GEFS mean temp near norm with good agreement to end of month; then ens members diverge e.g. op going rather cold (in the S at least) and control equally mild, leaving the mean unchanged. Rain in most ens members throughout, heaviest in SW, relatively little in NE, some ens members have less rain after Thu 1st

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Looks like a step in the right direction of meaningful block, hopefully it can dry things up and advect some colder drier air. But better prospects it seems at the moment without a raging PV - but this could change very quickly!

Defining what those terms mean is a regular discussion point. I’ve always regarded the ‘Far South’ as being south of the Bristol-London line, with ‘the South’ meaning the area south of the Midlands, so roughly a line from mid-Wales to the middle of East Anglia.

I find ‘the North’ harder to define because it depends whether you mean England or the U.K., but I use the Central Belt as, I think, a fairly obvious geographical marker.

Anyway, the models have had that familiar look where there’s blocking to the east and active weather systems in the Atlantic and we're sitting in the middle.  There have been recurring attempts in the model runs to get WAA pushed up to higher latitudes, and maybe the jet stream will play ball and allow a block to form.

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Far north for me would be north of Edinburgh ish.

The apps look mild. 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bbc.com/weather/2643743&ved=2ahUKEwjfpL6kuLz7AhWUQUEAHZ87DjMQFnoECAoQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2yaswI27f5mkDccw1mT6LR

 

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If you use Shetland as the northernmost point then Edinburgh is right in the middle. If you are just referring to the mainland your geographical definition if applied equally would have the “far south” starting at Manchester. I think Peter’s post above is a nice way of looking at things.

The ECM and GEM models both have temperatures in the high single figures towards the end of the month. Only one of the “big 3” medium range models (GFS) have temperatures in the 12-14°C range. It certainly might happen but it is not a clear signal and certainly not a cross-model consensus. A few more days should provide a bit of clarity. 

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https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx

To my eyes at least, there's a reasonably strong signal for milder than average conditions towards the end of the month. Not very mild, though. After that, on GFS at least, the Control does go off on one but it's not got a whole lot of support and there are plenty of colder options too. It's anybody's guess what we'll have from month end on. At least as far as I can see.

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Sorry to be quoting you again .  However, I suspect that the biggest factor in deciding where "the North" begins is population. Yes, you can make a perfectly coherent argument that the Lake District is central in geographical terms. However, at a guess, I would say that about half of the UK population lives South of Birmingham. Rightly or wrongly, they will probably perceive anything north of there as "the North".

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I think the terms “population” and “perception” rather than accuracy are a good way of looking at it. I’m just glad we don’t view the equator, hemispheres and latitude in general using the same criteria.  I realise it’s not a popular view, and irritates many people and that’s hardly a surprise as most people live in the south.  Context is everything. 

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 👍

A big part of the problem is that many people(probably not people on TWO, though)simply don't appreciate quite how big Scotland is geographically. It's a long, long way from the Solway Firth to the North coast and that's before you take Shetland or Orkney into account. 

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Spot the block….

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Parallel run gets a bit excited for blocking on this run

Geographically Scotland isn't that big. Mainland Scotland smaller in length (N/S) than mainland Portugal for example @ 441km to 561km. 

But the distance from the border to the south coast of England is only 550 km, so from the north to the south of the UK it’s 45% in Scotland and 55% in England.  So, in terms of the UK, Scotland covers a significant part, which I think was the point that was being made.

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I think Scotland feels bigger because there's not an identikit red brick housing estate with 3000 homes very 5 miles....

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Yes the UK is geographically small - smaller than Italy from top to bottom. What is more important weather wise with Scotland is it's terrain for the most part. With all its high ground even with the gulf stream go few hundred metres up and the climate is whole different ball game, and with such higher ground the frost pocket's will always be more extreme meaning much colder conditions to more inhabited areas away from the coast. 

Pound for pound, I think there is more daily (and nightly) contrasts, in terms of weather and temps, between various regions within the UK & Ireland, despite their very small sizes, compared to say N. America. 

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I see this is still the how big is Scotland thread

I suppose, given that I post a daily review, I ought to join in this debate and define my terms.

N - Durham and further N, including Scotland, though if there is a feature specifically affecting Scotland or indeed Shetland, I'll say so (far N, Inverness and further N)
S - Oxford and further S
W - Bristol and further W, including Wales
E - E Anglia up to Aberdeen
The parts excluded from the above get lumped together as central England

NW - Lancashire, Lake District and W Scotland (far NW, the coast N of the Clyde)
NE - Northumberland and E Scotland
SE - London and Home Counties
SW - Devon and Cornwall

I do avoid looking at, say, the London GEFS and generalising this as typical of the whole of Britain as some posters do, but there is a conscious weighting in terms of population. However, in a brief review, there will always be some approximation.

Nevertheless, our friends in the north may regard my classification as biased southwards. Bear in mind, though, that as a Kentish Man, I was bought up to believe that the north begins at Watford and Manchester was a town on the Scottish border (It's all right, I've lived in Manchester and realise that not everything you were told as a child is true)

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