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doctormog
20 November 2022 14:45:58


I suppose, given that I post a daily review, I ought to join in this debate and define my terms.


N - Durham and further N, including Scotland, though if there is a feature specifically affecting Scotland or indeed Shetland, I'll say so (far N, Inverness and further N)
S - Oxford and further S
W - Bristol and further W, including Wales
E - E Anglia up to Aberdeen
The parts excluded from the above get lumped together as central England


NW - Lancashire, Lake District and W Scotland (far NW, the coast N of the Clyde)
NE - Northumberland and E Scotland
SE - London and Home Counties
SW - Devon and Cornwall


I do avoid looking at, say, the London GEFS and generalising this as typical of the whole of Britain as some posters do, but there is a conscious weighting in terms of population. However, in a brief review, there will always be some approximation.


Nevertheless, our friends in the north may regard my classification as biased southwards. Bear in mind, though, that as a Kentish Man, I was bought up to believe that the north begins at Watford and Manchester was a town on the Scottish border (It's all right, I've lived in Manchester and realise that not everything you were told as a child is true)


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Those sound like really good, logical definitions David and it’s handy to read them in the context of your (very helpful ) daily summaries.


As an aside, I may not comment on your daily summaries very often but but (like many others I suspect) I greatly appreciate the time and thought that goes into them and the provision of a morning snapshot of the key model output points. 


picturesareme
20 November 2022 14:57:51


 


Pound for pound, I think there is more daily (and nightly) contrasts, in terms of weather and temps, between various regions within the UK & Ireland, despite their very small sizes, compared to say N. America. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


We're most certainly not. The US alone often experience's wild extremes of weather thanks to its huge size  a hot 30C on the Monday followed by -1C with heavy snowfall Tuesday types of extremes. People often forget just how big some of the states. Texas being the biggest it would fit the entire UK into it. 


 Good image showing the size of the US to Europe.


https://www.google.com/search?q=us+over+europe&tbm=isch&ved=2ahUKEwiU9-uPg737AhVCdBoKHfupAhoQ2-cCegQIABAB&oq=us+over+europe&gs_lcp=ChJtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1pbWcQAzIFCAAQgAQyBQgAEIAEMgYIABAHEB4yBggAEAcQHjIGCAAQBxAeOgQIIxAnOgYIABAIEB46BwgAEIAEEA1QowtYpRVg3BZoAHAAeACAAYsBiAHuBpIBAzguMpgBAKABAcABAQ&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-img&ei=-kB6Y5SSEcLoafvTitAB&bih=886&biw=485&client=ms-android-google&prmd=insv#imgrc=i2eDutPInjtELM 


 


 


 


 

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
20 November 2022 15:09:08


I suppose, given that I post a daily review, I ought to join in this debate and define my terms.


N - Durham and further N, including Scotland, though if there is a feature specifically affecting Scotland or indeed Shetland, I'll say so (far N, Inverness and further N)
S - Oxford and further S
W - Bristol and further W, including Wales
E - E Anglia up to Aberdeen
The parts excluded from the above get lumped together as central England


NW - Lancashire, Lake District and W Scotland (far NW, the coast N of the Clyde)
NE - Northumberland and E Scotland
SE - London and Home Counties
SW - Devon and Cornwall


I do avoid looking at, say, the London GEFS and generalising this as typical of the whole of Britain as some posters do, but there is a conscious weighting in terms of population. However, in a brief review, there will always be some approximation.


Nevertheless, our friends in the north may regard my classification as biased southwards. Bear in mind, though, that as a Kentish Man, I was bought up to believe that the north begins at Watford and Manchester was a town on the Scottish border (It's all right, I've lived in Manchester and realise that not everything you were told as a child is true)


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Sort of David to a degree. 


Dorset is obviously Southern England almost as far south as you can go perhaps. But I'm not in the SE i.e. Home Counties and not in the SW in your definition. Central Southern? And the weather is often different to both SW and SE. Not as wet as the SW and not as dry as in the SE, a  sort of Goldilocks climate most of the time I suppose you could argue.


The Model thread has again gone off on another branch line it seems.  Even this afternoons rain split into two, one going south and the other heading north leaving me in the dry spot.


Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Chunky Pea
20 November 2022 15:53:24


 


We're most certainly not. The US alone often experience's wild extremes of weather thanks to its huge size  a hot 30C on the Monday followed by -1C with heavy snowfall Tuesday types of extremes. People often forget just how big some of the states. Texas being the biggest it would fit the entire UK into it. 


 Good image showing the size of the US to Europe.


https://www.google.com/search?q=us+over+europe&tbm=isch&ved=2ahUKEwiU9-uPg737AhVCdBoKHfupAhoQ2-cCegQIABAB&oq=us+over+europe&gs_lcp=ChJtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1pbWcQAzIFCAAQgAQyBQgAEIAEMgYIABAHEB4yBggAEAcQHjIGCAAQBxAeOgQIIxAnOgYIABAIEB46BwgAEIAEEA1QowtYpRVg3BZoAHAAeACAAYsBiAHuBpIBAzguMpgBAKABAcABAQ&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-img&ei=-kB6Y5SSEcLoafvTitAB&bih=886&biw=485&client=ms-android-google&prmd=insv#imgrc=i2eDutPInjtELM 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Oh I agree and I should have explained better. I was more referring to any region in the N America that covers a similar area of size to these two small islands. There will tend to be less variation on any one day between any individual spots within that area on the continent than there would be in these two countries. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Gandalf The White
20 November 2022 16:09:53


 


Those sound like really good, logical definitions David and it’s handy to read them in the context of your (very helpful ) daily summaries.


As an aside, I may not comment on your daily summaries very often but but (like many others I suspect) I greatly appreciate the time and thought that goes into them and the provision of a morning snapshot of the key model output points. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


👍👍


Same for me. Generally I have a quick read of David’s daily contribution.


I’m sure we all recognise the time and effort that goes into writing it.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Osprey
20 November 2022 16:13:57


 


Sort of David to a degree. 


Dorset is obviously Southern England almost as far south as you can go perhaps. But I'm not in the SE i.e. Home Counties and not in the SW in your definition. Central Southern? And the weather is often different to both SW and SE. Not as wet as the SW and not as dry as in the SE, a  sort of Goldilocks climate most of the time I suppose you could argue.


The Model thread has again gone off on another branch line it seems.  Even this afternoons rain split into two, one going south and the other heading north leaving me in the dry spot.


Originally Posted by: NMA 


So like say "Middle Wallop", we may call your area Middle South, Mid Dry South, or just "or just Dorset...


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Narnia
20 November 2022 16:52:13

Anyway…… looks like some colder change might be on the way post 300

Martybhoy
20 November 2022 18:47:04

UserPostedImage 
upload 


200m above sea level
Rural East Ayrshire
Near to the village of Sorn
Lionel Hutz
20 November 2022 19:30:05


 


👍👍


Same for me. Generally I have a quick read of David’s daily contribution.


I’m sure we all recognise the time and effort that goes into writing it.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


👍 Absolutely. 


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



ballamar
20 November 2022 19:40:45

ECM looks like it could introduce some foggy conditions and with it colder weather

Heavy Weather 2013
21 November 2022 07:07:35

Both the control and the Op go COLD today from 210hrs.

Best run of the season so far, has fallen into line with what the ECM has been showing.

We get an Easterly first, and then a mid Atlantic ridge opening the floodgates.


The control is particularly exciting 


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
White Meadows
21 November 2022 07:15:32


Both the control and the Op go COLD today from 210hrs.

Best run of the season so far, has fallen into line with what the ECM has been showing.

We get an Easterly first, and then a mid Atlantic ridge opening the floodgates.


The control is particularly exciting 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

I noticed this also. Both have a 2009 look about them. 
for balance, ECM reverts to a milder outcome throughout. 

marco 79
21 November 2022 07:16:20
Parallel also goes cold too...Dec 2010 anyone?...long way off though ..
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Heavy Weather 2013
21 November 2022 07:34:38


I noticed this also. Both have a 2009 look about them. 
for balance, ECM reverts to a milder outcome throughout. 


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


FFS I knew that would happen!!!


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
moomin75
21 November 2022 07:37:04


 


FFS I knew that would happen!!!


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Of course it would. It always does!


Buckle in for the winter everyone, another roller coaster is on the way.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Heavy Weather 2013
21 November 2022 08:02:15


Of course it would. It always does!


Buckle in for the winter everyone, another roller coaster is on the way.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I am hoping that the trend is our friend. There are tentative signs at least of more interesting patterns towards start and mid December.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 November 2022 08:28:06

Thanks for kind remarks yesterday - though at the moment I have to agree with posters this morning that any projection of the review into week 2 is of doubtful value; it seems to be a point of honour for the 06z to overturn the 00z Still, here goes ...


WX summary; the 0C isotherm which has been hanging around E of Poland for the last week or so makes a big advance into central Europe in week 2, across to E France with cooler flanks also on the Baltic and Adriatic. Britain still keeping near seasonal norm. Rain on the N Atlantic week 1 incl Britain shifting S-wards in week 2, though Britain not entirely dry. Also still going strong in central Med.


GFS Op; Lp 980mb centred on the Wash Tue 22nd but covering rest of UK as well; swallowed up in main LP on Atlantic which retreats to S of Greenland Sun 27th with S-ly gales, after which pressure rises and forms a broad ridge from Scotland to Norway Wed 30th linking to large HP over Russia and leaving the Med under trough of LP. This sticks around for a week with a period of E-lies for S England before retreating to Greenland and allowing a N-ly blast for all Wed 7th under the control of LP Norway 980mb.


ECM; like GFS to Sun 27th after which LP stays closer to NW Scotland - no pressure rise until  Thu 1st and  then restricted to an area off SW England.


GEFS; for England, rain and normal temps for week 1 after which drier, and mean stays near norm though op and control definitely cold;  similar for Scotland though less marked in both pptn and temp .


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Brian Gaze
21 November 2022 08:31:17

Completely OT but as a lot of people read this thread I will use it to draw attention to the forum upgrade which is provisionally scheduled for either Friday or Saturday this week. See: 


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=23335


There are significant differences in the look and feel of the new version.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
21 November 2022 09:34:40
GFS onboard, ECM not awful but a little wobble. Things are disrupted in the usual flow and we might be on the verge of a decent blocked cold spell. GFS no doubt will drop the idea in the 6z!
The Beast from the East
21 November 2022 09:42:15


Completely OT but as a lot of people read this thread I will use it to draw attention to the forum upgrade which is provisionally scheduled for either Friday or Saturday this week. See: 


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=23335


There are significant differences in the look and feel of the new version.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I dont remember my password. So perhaps you can email it to me when the time comes


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Brian Gaze
21 November 2022 09:44:41


 


I dont remember my password. So perhaps you can email it to me when the time comes


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Passwords are encrypted so I can't check them. However, I will enable the automatic password reset link which sends out an email and give instructions on how to change it. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
21 November 2022 10:20:33
Significant blocking in GFS so far see if it aligns favourably for whatever you desire - personally hoping for cold
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
21 November 2022 10:52:38


 


I dont remember my password. So perhaps you can email it to me when the time comes


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I'm amazed that you don't have to log back in again to your account on a frequent basis. Happens to me every few weeks where my status switches to logged out. I thought that was a security feature? 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Saint Snow
21 November 2022 10:53:38


 


Passwords are encrypted so I can't check them. However, I will enable the automatic password reset link which sends out an email and give instructions on how to change it. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Peoples, just check your profiles to ensure your email address on the system is one that you still use. It's easy to amend if not.


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
idj20
21 November 2022 11:02:09

Significant blocking in GFS so far see if it aligns favourably for whatever you desire - personally hoping for cold

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Anything to keep the Angry Atlantic at arms length will do me fine and indeed the medium range outputs are pleasing to the eye. Just get rid of the incessant rain and wind, let things settle down and then see where it go from there in terms of sustained cold. For now I'll be happy with an extended period of calm and dry conditions.


Folkestone Harbour. 
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