As alluded by other there are sign of higher pressure, particularly for the south as we move towards the end of the month. No blow torch, no depth of cold. Seasonal 

I didn't see the 0Z, but the parallel 6Z looks fairly full of potential. The old school run less so.

obviously the parallel is more accurate with blocking 😂

Only 8 days until the parallel run takes over as the main run so I'll just ignore the old one now 

Not sure that that cold area is of much significance. However, SST's are well above average over the North Atlantic(bar a few fairly localised exceptions);

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

The bad thing about SST's like that is that cold winds will be modified by the warm ocean. On the plus side, though, if we can get air that's cold enough, the high SST's will allow serious shower convection with copious amounts of snow! 

Thank you Brian 

I’m looking forward to the ensemble suite running on the new version; nice as some of the charts emerging from the new version are (from a cold weather perspective) it’s impossible to make any judgment without the wider picture.

It's in a funny position, with energy going over the top of it. Not a great block to bring us cold at this time of year (ideally it'd move around 1000 westwards and 500 miles north!

And you get your wish a little bit further on in the run Saint. It's a humdinger for this early in the season. I spy a Murr Sausage 😂😂

Cool, damp, cloudy easterly muck.

I vote for Moomin 

That GFS 12z is beautiful in the latter stages. The first 'Carlsberg' run of the season?

GFSP isn't a million miles away in the egernal evolution, eaither.

Yep that's what it looks like to me, even if it does set up per the GFS 12z, which I highly doubt anyway, there will be a lack of cold air to tap into and we will get drizzly 5c days and frost free nights.

indeed no need to look at detail, trend of getting blocking to the east to influence us is what we need to look for. Has been trending better over the last few runs

GFS ens have decent support for some sort of pressure rise to the North East or just over the UK and ECM op at least agrees at the T240 point.

I suspect though 850s of -7c or higher would for the most part bring cold rain and a fair bit of dank weather but encouraging setup at least and increases the possibility of getting cold enough air in for some wintry stuff.

I’d love a shot of your crystal ball 👍🏻

don’t forget he saw mild SW winds a couple of days back 😂

Codge are you there?!!

Yes, I'd say more likely than Moomin's optimistic summary