Surrey John's post is worth a read, and an eye-opener chart of temp gradients with a pocket of warm air close to 20c poking well north into Slovenia surrounded by areas close to 7 or 8 C. Meanwhile, looking at the usual charts ...

WX temps similar to yesterday with 0C isotherm established in E Poland week 1, extending W and S in week 2 though more fragmentedly than yesterday; cooler in week 2 elsewhere with only England, France and Spain staying near norm. Rain in week in its usual position on the Atlantic with Britain continuing very wet, plus an area in the Adriatic, changing in week 2 with the Atlantic then wet well to the N, from Iceland to N Norway, and the Adriatic storm splitting into patches across the Med. Britain much drier.

GFS Op - current LP over Britain sucked back into main LP circulation in mid-Atlantic followed by a contest between that LP and HP over Baltic with S-ly gales, lasting until Sun 27th when the LP makes its last close approach (to NW Scotland). Pressure over Britain then rises patchily but by Thu 1st a strong ridge from the far SW across Britain to Norway, centre there 1040mb. The ridge then rotates clockwise to lie NW-SE across Germany Sun 4th. It then migrates W-wards with N-lies down the N Sea appearing on Thu 8th controlled by LP 980mb Denmark

ECM - similar distribution of pressure to GFS but the ridge of HP is less marked and there is a more definite centre to the SW at 1030mb while the centre over Norway is a mere extension of the Russian HP, much larger on this model at 1055mb E of the Urals and more intense than on GFS. No sign of E-lies for Britain as shown yesterday.

GEFS - week 1 temp close to norm and wet from time to time (less rain in N), much drier week 2 with temp a little below norm though first the op and then the control disagree. much milder. 

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One of the metrics I use to get a feel for the likelihood of an easterly influence is the De Bilt set. Today a few sub -10 dps are appearing which is a hint that an easterly is being tossed about, but no more than that at the moment.
More . . . . (Etc)

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Just looking forward to settled weather with potential for some ice days in the fog. Down the line with a block as substantial as modelled definitely possible for an easterly.

Looks like a chilly start to December is becoming more likely, nothing very wintry but hopefully a seasonal feel.

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Seems like the law of averages after a dry summer is starting to balance back.... in 2 weeks it looks like we will have another breather ofbl dry weather

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Whilst the snow rows are nothing spectacular (for London), they are for the first time indicating a bit of interest!

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Softly softly creepy crawly 😉

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The train may have just left the sidings…

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12Z GFS produces quite a nice looking pattern, not much cold air to tap into though.

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Nice to see a pattern much changed from recent years, think we could see some ice days next week in parts. If we get some stagnant air over us under high pressure could get very cold in spots. Then hopefully an ever colder easterly

When I went out at 2.45pm today to collect the kids from school there was ice on my car. Not a lot of it, but ice nevertheless. 

Once I started driving the car claimed 3 degrees.

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There continues to be moves in the colder direction across the board, with a number of GEFS approaching -10 for the first time.
The soft creep towards seasonal continues.

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Cold and dry would suit me just fine!  I know we need rain after all the dry weather we’ve had this year but it Sod’s Law the rain doesn’t know when to stop now we’ve started building work!  

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I'd be very surprised if we got ice days out of it so early in the Winter season without any snow cover.

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I'll be very surprised if I see my first air frost of the season here!

But nice to see temps finally down to near normal

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The start of Some sort of easterly influence looks possible in about 9 days time, though not overwhelmingly so.

Still no air frost here either. I'll need to go through my stats but this could be the latest I've recorded.

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2015 might be a contender... I was in Berko at the time and pretty sure we made it through December without a frost at least which is pretty amazing

I recorded air frosts on November 21, 22 and 23 in 2015. The minimum on 22nd was -2.4C.

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Easterly followed by Greenland High in this op run nice to see at beginning of Dec even if it doesn’t happen

Yes - another southerly push towards Svalbard precipitates the Scandi High, so warm and wet (like my tea), for the next few days before the switch to more settled and chilly weather. The seasonal spring and water course at the bottom of my garden - which normally runs from October to June inclusively is still not flowing, even after all this rain. Once the Scandi High is in place, loose and flaccid though it appears to be being modelled, anything could happen from muzzle fog to those elusive and never forgotten east-coast snow showers (so common from the 60s to the 80s), but with sea surface temps still high, I doubt we will see snow. At best sleet on high ground - and cold rain if anything falls at all. I am hoping for drier air and clear skies from some winter sun and frosts, to make things more festive in advent.

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I saw my first sleet this winter - on the windscreen as I was driving the road over the highest ground - half way between Chatsworth and Chesterfield on Monday morning as the front came in from the south-west and engaged the cold air. Off topic I know, but this cold air was brought about by the Scandi high from the first push of southerlies to Svalbard, and the next one modelled for next week might deliver something better for coldies....

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If we can get all the cold and snow events next month to Jan seem fine and right timing with short daylight while we still get energy support so by Feb onward to be much early mild warm spring follow by warmer April.  Rain need to go away now and replace with seasonal varieties.  

Spot the outlier 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=313&y=103

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=313&y=103&run=0&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1

P9 lol 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=9&ech=360&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0

Over all it looks like settling down with a risk of frost/fog but nothing overly cold for the time of year. 

 

Yep definitely an Op for the bin I would think. Still looks positive for cold fans as we head into December. Highest snow rows I've seen so far this season. 

 

 

 

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