My feet remain firmly grounded though, as we know if anything can wrong, it usually will. But on face value, looking promising.

Yes at least its something to talk about.  Could easily go Pete Tong yet though.  Both Met and BBC monthlies are fairly underwhelming. 

Like I said before, anything to keep the angry Atlantic at arms length for as long as possible will do me just fine. 

I understood that there was support for colder weather at the beginning of the winter, based on the La Niña pattern?

Anyway, we’re still a week or more away from the pattern change and as the ensemble options show, there are many ways the set-up could evolve differently even if the basic long wave pattern is favourable for colder weather.

The usual caveats apply: cross-model support, run-to-run stability,  and the Met Office including colder weather and wintry precipitation in its output.

For once I’m not hoping for an Arctic spell, given energy prices and generating capacity constraints.

Western parts of the UK set for a battering from strong winds tomorrow.

Warnings for rain in the SW, but nothing for storm force winds.

Now don’t go spoiling the atmosphere by talking about actual weather 😂

ICON continues the theme of easterly influence (which is what you call an easterly drift with as yet no real bite).

La Nina winters, if anything, tend slightly towards milder conditions in the winter (in this part of the world) but all just statistical noise really. 

Ian, be careful what you wish for...

Control looks nice so far

And goes on to be super primed with eastern promise.

I can’t see any reason not to continue to think we are seeing a slow creep into a very interesting early winter period.

GFS picked up on the heatwave that couldn't happen, and persisted with the extremity of it, if not the exact timing; it had a feel signal.

Now I'm not suggesting we should shift from scientific evidence to 'feel', but I hope you know what I mean in terms of not writing off unlikely scenarios- when the 'impossible' came through.

the difference is the heatwave was built on probability due to the massive heat pool that was extreme. This time we start from scratch but the signs are there and cold pools can develop very quickly during static pools of air and minimal solar heating

2010 is in another league when it comes to early winter cold set up 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=4&month=12&year=2010&hour=0&type=ncep&map=1&type=ncep&region=&mode=0

depends where you lived bar 1 big snowfall wasn’t remarkable in the SE

Agree, Dec 2010 was cold but largely snowless down here. January 2010 on the other hand…

You said cold not snow? Plus the ECM is useless for snow wherever you are in the UK

ICON is the best for forecasting snow and the areas it is likely fall, I find. 

Agree. Dec 2010 was almost a non event here as I've said before. Very different to mid December 2009 to mid January 2010 when there were 3 heavy falls of snow.

In the short term its decent, but any snow risk is 7 day + atm. 

We're so lucky these days to have access to so many models, I find it best to view all of them and go with the mean and your own judgement they can all be hit and miss in tearms of snowfall even @ -24 hours. 

Big spread on MOGREPS.

Also interesting to see the GEFS 2m temp data tables looking a little less cold than some of the recent updates despite the apparent trend towards lower 850s.  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx?run=12&fv=tmp2max&loc=london&lat=51.5&lon=0&p=&cty=