Yes indeed, even I am raising half an eyebrow.

My feet remain firmly grounded though, as we know if anything can wrong, it usually will. But on face value, looking promising.

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Yes at least its something to talk about.  Could easily go Pete Tong yet though.  Both Met and BBC monthlies are fairly underwhelming. 

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Like I said before, anything to keep the angry Atlantic at arms length for as long as possible will do me just fine. 

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I understood that there was support for colder weather at the beginning of the winter, based on the La Niña pattern?

Anyway, we’re still a week or more away from the pattern change and as the ensemble options show, there are many ways the set-up could evolve differently even if the basic long wave pattern is favourable for colder weather.

The usual caveats apply: cross-model support, run-to-run stability,  and the Met Office including colder weather and wintry precipitation in its output.

For once I’m not hoping for an Arctic spell, given energy prices and generating capacity constraints.

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Western parts of the UK set for a battering from strong winds tomorrow.

Warnings for rain in the SW, but nothing for storm force winds.

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Now don’t go spoiling the atmosphere by talking about actual weather 😂

ICON continues the theme of easterly influence (which is what you call an easterly drift with as yet no real bite).

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La Nina winters, if anything, tend slightly towards milder conditions in the winter (in this part of the world) but all just statistical noise really. 

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Ian, be careful what you wish for...

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GFS op run starts to create it own cold pool over the continent/SE to show what can happen in this set-up.

Control looks nice so far

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And goes on to be super primed with eastern promise.

I can’t see any reason not to continue to think we are seeing a slow creep into a very interesting early winter period.

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GFS 12Z op run looks primed for significant snow at the end of the run with a low about to run into some pretty cold air from Europe. GFSP is slightly less exciting but still rather cold.

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GFS picked up on the heatwave that couldn't happen, and persisted with the extremity of it, if not the exact timing; it had a feel signal.

Now I'm not suggesting we should shift from scientific evidence to 'feel', but I hope you know what I mean in terms of not writing off unlikely scenarios- when the 'impossible' came through.

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the difference is the heatwave was built on probability due to the massive heat pool that was extreme. This time we start from scratch but the signs are there and cold pools can develop very quickly during static pools of air and minimal solar heating

One thing i will say is that GFS has been remarkably consistent in terms of hinting of an Easterly for December and I think there is quite amount of cross model agreement although its still out in far away land in forecasting terms. I think somehting good is the offing. Afterall Putin said so.

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ECM looks like how I would draw an early December chart for cold

2010 is in another league when it comes to early winter cold set up 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=4&month=12&year=2010&hour=0&type=ncep&map=1&type=ncep&region=&mode=0

 

depends where you lived bar 1 big snowfall wasn’t remarkable in the SE

Agree, Dec 2010 was cold but largely snowless down here. January 2010 on the other hand…

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You said cold not snow? Plus the ECM is useless for snow wherever you are in the UK

ICON is the best for forecasting snow and the areas it is likely fall, I find. 

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The ECM is as good as it gets for early Dec, the importance is the height rises in the GIN allowing stability of the block and reduces the chances of the it getting toppled by the Jet.

https://wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png 

Another week of those synoptics and it would be very frigid indeed as the air is drawn from the east, with the high SSTs in the North Sea too plenty of opportunity for lake effect. The Atlantic is just dead in the T240, with a textbook split PV. I've not checked the strat forecast, any sign of SSW?

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Agree. Dec 2010 was almost a non event here as I've said before. Very different to mid December 2009 to mid January 2010 when there were 3 heavy falls of snow.

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In the short term its decent, but any snow risk is 7 day + atm. 

We're so lucky these days to have access to so many models, I find it best to view all of them and go with the mean and your own judgement they can all be hit and miss in tearms of snowfall even @ -24 hours. 

Big spread on MOGREPS.

 

Also interesting to see the GEFS 2m temp data tables looking a little less cold than some of the recent updates despite the apparent trend towards lower 850s.  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx?run=12&fv=tmp2max&loc=london&lat=51.5&lon=0&p=&cty=

 

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