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doctormog
27 November 2022 09:55:28

I thought it was in the bleak midwinter. Either way, temps are certainly dropping next week. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Yes, it makes a change to see the t850hPa ensemble mean (GEFS)  below the LTA for a sustained period of time. (This example is for my location, others are available!)

The overall synoptic outlook is interesting even if it's not very wintry. As Neil suggests the slack and "blocky" patterns provide more opportunities for wintry conditions in the coming few weeks.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
ballamar
27 November 2022 10:05:52
Wherever the GFS op goes from T96 for early December that's a cracking chart 
SnowyHythe(Kent)
27 November 2022 10:33:59
Para GFS has always been the worst model..
I've said it time, time again..
doctormog
27 November 2022 10:38:56
This  is quite a telling snapshot of the jetstream from the 06z GFS op run:

UserPostedImage 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
nsrobins
27 November 2022 10:46:28

I thought it was in the bleak midwinter. Either way, temps are certainly dropping next week. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



The winters going to be bleak enough regardless of the weather. I prefer 'deep' as in '6ft drifts' 😉😎
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
The Beast from the East
27 November 2022 10:53:08
Nice evolution on the latest GFS op, to a greeny block. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=0 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
27 November 2022 11:10:05
Control is poor though and we get a warmer southerly feed
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0 
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
marco 79
27 November 2022 11:19:19
Para is not much to write about either....some early season notable cold progged for NE Europe in the later stages of the Op run since 2010.
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Gooner
27 November 2022 11:26:04

  https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2022112706/gensnh-0-1-228.png 
 
  Control could be good further down the line all in FI though 
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gandalf The White
27 November 2022 11:53:21
At least six feet of snow would have insulating properties 😉
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


dagspot
27 November 2022 12:25:19
BBCs Ben Rich suggesting 8dc and cloudy for Edinburgh in 7 days time.. so nothing exciting brewing in short term...
Neilston 600ft ASL
White Meadows
27 November 2022 12:37:22
They'll keep tight lipped about any potential cold this far out, as usual.
The real intrigue will come from the Met office contingency planners release tomorrow. 
+1
Rob K
27 November 2022 16:45:52
GFS 12Z runs switch places with the parallel looking good for some cold and snow for some, while the main run goes milder.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
27 November 2022 16:47:17
GFSP and GEM 12Zs the latest batch to raise pulse rates. With the general theme set we could see some Cresta runs in the next few days. In the general scheme of things it doesn't mean much but it's very entertaining 😎
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
27 November 2022 17:14:56
Genuine European freezer run from the GFS Para.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Gooner
27 November 2022 17:53:57

 Certainly some interest over the next week or so to see how this develops , lots of potential for sure 
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
27 November 2022 18:04:10
BBCs Ben Rich suggesting 8dc and cloudy for Edinburgh in 7 days time.. so nothing exciting brewing in short term...



Shows how disappointing a lack of cold uppers can be. GEM is the evolution we need to advect some proper deep cold
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0 


 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
nsrobins
27 November 2022 18:05:42
The typically very conservative and slow to react UKM extended has now acknowledged the easterly influence and a nod to 'wintry showers' is a sign things are starting to get interesting.
The GFSP has -12 uppers moving into the east  in FI on the latest run in an unstable flow. 
It's an example of what could happen in the pattern being projected. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
nsrobins
27 November 2022 18:08:19

BBCs Ben Rich suggesting 8dc and cloudy for Edinburgh in 7 days time.. so nothing exciting brewing in short term...

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Shows how disappointing a lack of cold uppers can be. GEM is the evolution we need to advect some proper deep cold
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0 


 


But the 'short term' is not really the main topic at the moment. We know a fairly slack ESE with -4 uppers isn't much to get excited about  - it's what's being suggested in the 7-10 day range and beyond that is raising eyebrows. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Brian Gaze
27 November 2022 18:25:09
Chilly looking Met 12z.
UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Rob K
27 November 2022 18:51:11
ECM shows the old problem of high pressure over the Med feeding milder air into an easterly feed for the southern half of the country.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
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