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Jiries
02 December 2022 15:06:30

GFS 6Z has a run of ice days (or very close to, with maxima below 1C) for parts of the south starting as early as next Thursday. Will be interesting to see if these get pushed back or if we see the model consistently reel them in.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



There no push back so far as it been predicting Thursday 8th as a snow day since the models start showing it.  Glad to see the back of this nasty horrible dirty fog and overcast skies out of the way, no weather or sun even today it tried to come out but nasty fog won't go away from a horrible HP that will push away to Greenland.  Will arrive back to Birmingham at 1.45am from Slough on National Express so need watching so hope to snow after I get home first.  
 
warrenb
02 December 2022 16:20:22
This GFS run has stuck the trough over us.
Tonbridge 45m 
Saint Snow
02 December 2022 16:45:21

This GFS run has stuck the trough over us.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 



Some snow about - although marginal from that Severn-Wash line

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ballamar
02 December 2022 16:57:30
The chart at 294 looks pivotal to see if the cold continues - hopefully the low will deflect into Europe. Miles away though
Downpour
02 December 2022 17:00:07

Some snow about - although marginal from that Severn-Wash line

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Indeed. So far this looks like a non-event for most of the UK population. 

But, things can change. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
doctormog
02 December 2022 17:08:23

The chart at 294 looks pivotal to see if the cold continues - hopefully the low will deflect into Europe. Miles away though

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Yes, the details and positions of low pressure systems are changing from run to run but the pattern overall remains the same and the cold never fully leaves before pushing back across all areas later in this GFS run (and other models this evening too):UserPostedImage
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
nsrobins
02 December 2022 17:08:34

Some snow about - although marginal from that Severn-Wash line

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


It's within the envelope if the previous suites.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Saint Snow
02 December 2022 17:09:00
I'd take the 12z GFS for the weekend after next  🤣🤣

UserPostedImage

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gusty
02 December 2022 17:09:55
GFS latest run looks a bit early December 2020 ish with slack cold uppers bringing wintry showers around northern coasts and more general rain at times in the south, sleet/snow across the North at times if fronts, disturbances or troughs get in the mix.


 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
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Joe Bloggs
02 December 2022 17:18:28

GFS latest run looks a bit early December 2020 ish with slack cold uppers bringing wintry showers around northern coasts and more general rain at times in the south, sleet/snow across the North at times if fronts, disturbances or troughs get in the mix.


 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



December 2020 was actually pretty snowy in that tiny city of Manchester containing only a small fraction of the UK population. 😉 

Nothing spectacular but several days of falling and lying snow. 

I'd happily take a repeat of that to be honest. 

I think the potential is greater this time though despite the usual wobbles. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
The Beast from the East
02 December 2022 17:22:41
GFS control is lot better overall and for the south
Prefer UKMO though we cant see the crucial next day
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
doctormog
02 December 2022 17:28:36

GFS control is lot better overall and for the south
Prefer UKMO though we cant see the crucial next day
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


The day 7 chart is pretty chilly across the board: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPEU12_168_1.png 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
The Beast from the East
02 December 2022 17:31:59

The day 7 chart is pretty chilly across the board: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPEU12_168_1.png 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Looks like Scotland will do very well out of that. Im guessing dry down here with a few wintry showers perhaps
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Arbroath 1320
02 December 2022 17:36:21

This GFS run has stuck the trough over us.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 



A feasible evolution and in the current set up, one of the few ways of avoiding a potent, prolonged blast from the NE.

No cross model agreement on the trough being bang over us, but certainly a movement today across models in that direction.

As ever, more runs needed, as that period is still ages away.
GGTTH
Rob K
02 December 2022 17:36:37
GFS 12Z is dicing with danger with the mild air uncomfortably close to the south coast. 

GEM has a lovely looking pressure pattern, quite Dec 1978, but not a great deal of cold air. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
02 December 2022 17:37:34
Met global dipping to -21C. 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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doctormog
02 December 2022 17:41:12

Met global dipping to -21C. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



It's amazing what a bit of (modelled) snow cover can do!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
02 December 2022 17:42:26
Indeed. Also, that Met runs brings a period of snow down across most of the UK. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gavin D
02 December 2022 17:53:57
Not sure what's wrong with the Outlook Model's page, but UK Met Office keeps giving an Oops! Page not found error

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmrfcompare.aspx 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/404_two.aspx?aspxerrorpath=/twodata/ukmet.aspx 
Zubzero
02 December 2022 18:08:34
Odd. 
it's works Gavin if you go to it from here 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/model-inventory.aspx 
 
fairweather
02 December 2022 18:34:56
BBC luke warm. "Colder northerly next week, nothing out of the ordinary. Maybe a few flurries in the North". 4-6C for most.
Fair enough but it is a bit out of the ordinary for the first week of December in recent years.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Downpour
02 December 2022 18:37:51

BBC luke warm. "Colder northerly next week, nothing out of the ordinary. Maybe a few flurries in the North". 4-6C for most.
Fair enough but it is a bit out of the ordinary for the first week of December in recent years.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



indeed. Looks fairly meh for most. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Brian Gaze
02 December 2022 18:37:58
ECM 12z putting the cat among the pigeons.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Arbroath 1320
02 December 2022 18:43:25

ECM 12z putting the cat among the pigeons.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Yep, the inevitable downgrade. The trough is now 500+ miles further NW than it was in the ECM 0z.

A wobble from the models or a trend? We've been here many times before. We'll see.
GGTTH
moomin75
02 December 2022 18:44:15

ECM 12z putting the cat among the pigeons. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Was just about to say, if you're a coldie, don't look at the ECM.Unbelievable! ​​​​​​​Actually, no it's not, as this always happens.​​​​​​​This is exactly why I was keeping my feet grounded.​​​​​​​    
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

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