theweatheroutlook

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The Beast from the East
03 December 2022 16:01:39
GFS 12z looks very similar to the 06z so far. Oh dear, Pete Tong has arrived to ruin the party again
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
doctormog
03 December 2022 16:08:17
Yes it looks consistent in the next few days, which would explain the Met Office wether warning for snow up here on Wednesday: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_84_2.png 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Downpour
03 December 2022 16:10:09

GFS 12z looks very similar to the 06z so far. Oh dear, Pete Tong has arrived to ruin the party again

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



I'm not sure there ever was a party to ruin as such - this spell has never looked like delivering snow for many. This week will feel seasonal (chilly) however. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Rob K
03 December 2022 16:13:09

GFS 12z looks very similar to the 06z so far. Oh dear, Pete Tong has arrived to ruin the party again

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Looks a bit better to me with the cold air digging further south and the blocking not being pushed so far to the north. 

By this time next week it is showing lying snow for virtually the whole country barring parts of the SW. Not that those charts mean much of course. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
03 December 2022 16:13:34
Big picture, GFS is an upgrade. Ignore the white contours and look at the 500hpa height shading. Orange over Greenland stronger and further east, and less blue west of UK
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Rob K
03 December 2022 16:18:31
Bitterly cold under slack air next Saturday on the 12Z GFS. -3 to -4C maxima across northern England and southern Scotland. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
03 December 2022 16:20:11
This could be interesting.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
nsrobins
03 December 2022 16:20:39

Big picture, GFS is an upgrade. Ignore the white contours and look at the 500hpa height shading. Orange over Greenland stronger and further east, and less blue west of UK

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



The sub-tropical feature Q mentioned is causing issues - if (and it's a huge if) heights to the North can keep it on a southerly vector we could see a major event next weekend. Moist air of tropical origin meeting freezing air of Arctic origin 😎
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
Rob K
03 December 2022 16:22:18

This could be interesting.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



That has the makings of a classic blizzard if the path is just right.  Very cold air over the UK at the surface. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
03 December 2022 16:27:23

The sub-tropical feature Q mentioned is causing issues - if (and it's a huge if) heights to the North can keep it on a southerly vector we could see a major event next weekend. Moist air of tropical origin meeting freezing air of Arctic origin 😎

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


If it develops it will ramp up the jet for sure as it transitions, but it would be far south of its usual position. Two scenarios:

1) it leads to a strong zonal flow over Iberia and reverse zonal flow here I.e winds go easterly.
2) jet goes SW to NE with a risk of milder air from the south west. Ofc there is also a risk of battleground snow
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
+1
Brian Gaze
03 December 2022 16:28:16
Snow in the north.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
03 December 2022 16:29:09
Significant snow to rain event on this run for the south, somewhere on the northern boundary would get buried. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
03 December 2022 16:38:51
GEM treats the hurricane in a similar way. The track of that will be crucial but the chance is there for something quite major in 8 or 9 days' time. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
03 December 2022 16:42:56

GEM treats the hurricane in a similar way. The track of that will be crucial but the chance is there for something quite major in 8 or 9 days' time. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


GEM is a good example of how the hurricane could scuttle the cold spell. Alot of energy dumped NW of UK kills off the Greenland high entirely 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
+1
ballamar
03 December 2022 16:44:19
264 on GFS looking NE 
doctormog
03 December 2022 16:49:21
Messy again in the medium to long term but across the board it looks rather cold in the coming days with snow possible for quite a few areas. There are hints of some significantly below average temperatures, not good for people's heating bills.

(On a different note the t850hPa ensemble mean has nudged down here again on the 12z data to -9.6°C on Wednesday.)
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Rob K
03 December 2022 16:58:41

264 on GFS looking NE 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


The beast is certainly lurking by the end of this run although the Atlantic is keeping it caged in Europe. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
03 December 2022 17:01:25
UK Met Global 12z is online.

t+168

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=500hpa_height&chartregion=na-region&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM 
 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Downpour
03 December 2022 17:04:10

Snow in the north.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Yikes. An absolutely awful chart that would see cold rain for 90%+ of the UK population. Grim. 

More runs needed! 😀
Chingford
London E4
147ft
doctormog
03 December 2022 17:10:36

Snow in the north.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



There is actually a much higher chance of snow for many areas much sooner than that based on the 12z G(E)FS data, albeit those areas areas that are typically impacted in northerly pattern.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/run/gensprobuk-26-120.png?12 

It is strange to see a weather warning out  4 days in advance associated with this risk considering it doesn't effect where 90%+ of the population live. Should I write to them to ask them why they bothered mentioning it or should someone else?
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Heavy Weather 2013
03 December 2022 17:12:18
Looking through the suite up
to +180hrs and you can see so many variations of how that low pressure is managed. I suspect lots of wild swings for a few more days until the models resolve.

There are some cracking options in there still. Cold and seasonal up until then though. 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Downpour
03 December 2022 17:30:28

There is actually a much higher chance of snow for many areas much sooner than that based on the 12z G(E)FS data, albeit those areas areas that are typically impacted in northerly pattern.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/run/gensprobuk-26-120.png?12 


It is strange to see a weather warning out  4 days


in advance associated with this risk considering it doesn't effect where 90%+ of the population live. Should I write to them to ask them why they bothered mentioning it or should someone else?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 




We can but hope for upgrades (which remain very possible). But as things stand we are just about on the wrong side of marginal for most, according to the modelling. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
doctormog
03 December 2022 18:11:16
I'm guessing many people would be happy with the 12z GFS control run today.

i wonder what variation of low pressure track the ECM 12z op will go with.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
squish
03 December 2022 18:15:05
GEFS control
is stunning !! 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
The Beast from the East
03 December 2022 18:21:56
ECM out to 120
Cant tell if its worse or the same as the morning
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

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