theweatheroutlook

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nsrobins
04 December 2022 21:20:18
18Z ICON. The main low again settling further south. If the corrections continue it'll clear south completely by the weekend.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Brian Gaze
04 December 2022 21:22:10

Not really sure it's that odd to be honest. It is the default HP set up most winters so I wouldn't rule out a 5 day frosty cool down followed by the hair dryer being switched on for the rest of the month. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Depends on what you baseline with. For example, if you step through the reanalysis charts of Decembers in the 1960s you don't need a spreadsheet to see that heights were often a lot lower in continental Europe. The trend you allude to is the one Paul Bartlett identified in the early years of this century.
 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Brian Gaze
04 December 2022 21:27:43
ECM ENS and GEFS both suggest to me the end of this cold spell is in sight. However, the end date range is approx 12/12 to 17/12 and what happens beyond that is open to debate.  


UserPostedImage 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Brian Gaze
04 December 2022 21:38:43
MOGREPS-G now reaches the time when the breakdown could start to develop.  

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Brian Gaze
04 December 2022 21:40:18
The postage stamp plots give a better idea. MOGREPS-G t+198 hours.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Quantum
04 December 2022 21:43:31
Icon 18z is rather interesting, even before the effect of the hurricane is known. The deep cold core low over the UK is weaker and is in the process of being absorbed by a lp to the south by 120h. Its a colder evolution especially for the south.
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
White Meadows
04 December 2022 21:52:55
Great start to the model thread this season it has to be said. 
Tom Oxon
04 December 2022 22:14:22

ECM ENS and GEFS both suggest to me the end of this cold spell is in sight. However, the end date range is approx 12/12 to 17/12 and what happens beyond that is open to debate.  


UserPostedImage 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



That's not how I see that Brian, you have the control spiking mild with a few other members but there is still a solid pack around the -5 line.  It doesn't say the cold is guaranteed either, but what it does say is uncertainty from the 12th.
S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
squish
04 December 2022 22:39:26
Great 18z again 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
04 December 2022 22:51:21
PUB run - this is like old days - i do love this forum 2001 i started here
https://twitter.com/JohnathanSizz 

 
+1
idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
04 December 2022 22:53:18
just a shame this forum is so under posted compared to 10 years ago - the fact that it has survirved that long however is testament to Biran and the great contributors over the years 
https://twitter.com/JohnathanSizz 

 
+1
Jive Buddy
04 December 2022 22:59:01

just a shame this forum is so under posted compared to 10 years ago - the fact that it has survirved that long however is testament to Biran and the great contributors over the years 

Originally Posted by: idot 


BIran?...an uncle to Siram per chance ?
😮
 
It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
+1
White Meadows
04 December 2022 23:00:23
18z Scandy High pressure potential the week leading up to Christmas 

EDIT: maybe not with that dartboard low heading over Svlbard 
Gandalf The White
04 December 2022 23:03:24
Out well into FI territory but what is apparent is continuing pulses of WAA and associated blocking with the jet stream disrupted.  Each run plays a different tune as we move deeper into the run but with the same base line.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
04 December 2022 23:03:30
ha! FYI theres no Speil Chunk on this new fangled forum either 
https://twitter.com/JohnathanSizz 

 
+1
Karl Guille
04 December 2022 23:03:59
GFS 18z looking to continue the generally cold outlook into FI!  What will the ensembles say?
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022120418/gfs-0-270.png?18 
 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
04 December 2022 23:06:17

BIran?...an uncle to Siram per chance ?
😮
 

Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 



Gary Sarie?
https://twitter.com/JohnathanSizz 

 
fairweather
04 December 2022 23:32:27

just a shame this forum is so under posted compared to 10 years ago - the fact that it has survirved that long however is testament to Biran and the great contributors over the years 

Originally Posted by: idot 


Maybe less posts but better quality and not so dominated by the same moody ones as it was. 🤔
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+3
some faraway beach
04 December 2022 23:41:44
We're all used to the bitter truth that the cold always seems to be at day 10 in model land, but perhaps the converse also applies. Once the cold is actually here, the breakdown is always at day 10 too.

This is one of my abiding memories of December 2010 on here. The cold arrived in November, and far too many people wasted the next four or five weeks obsessing over day-10 upticks on the GEFS ensemble. They lived through the coldest December ever recorded, then spent the next decade complaining that we never get cold weather any more.
2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
+1
Gandalf The White
05 December 2022 00:00:22
A pretty impressive mean SLP/500hPa chart at T+168 on the 18z, and the spread chart suggests it's fairly solid.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=168&code=31&mode=0&carte=1&ext=0 

 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
05 December 2022 06:02:51
Big shift towards a weaker trough since 12z set. The result is a much more robust cold spell with breakdown less likely 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
doctormog
05 December 2022 06:51:51

Big shift towards a weaker trough since 12z set. The result is a much more robust cold spell with breakdown less likely 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Yes it's a cold outlook across the models this morning, including the ECM 00z op run. 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
nsrobins
05 December 2022 06:51:57
The EC has gone full renegade this morning and disrupted the pseudocane energy into France. UK cold/very cold throughout.
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
nsrobins
05 December 2022 07:02:00
GEFS continue to nudge down with 850s (London) at -7 mean for a week. 
The focus now up to the weekend is how much and where any snowfall will occur and how cold nights will get. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Ally Pally Snowman
05 December 2022 07:15:40
Yep all the models keep the UK cold now until at least day 10 . In fact its looks more like a 2 weeks . Now we just need the snow. Looks like NW England and Midlands could get some Wednesday night. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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