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moomin75
06 December 2022 10:34:00

Might be wrong, but looks bone dry for most to me right into next week, which is too far off for specifics anyway

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Totally agree Matty.Bone dry and bone chillingly cold.Doesn't float my boat at all, particularly this year.A bitterly cold bone dry spell is not only pointless, but also, will cause a lot of issues for hard pressed people financially.Currently, personally, I'm not remotely interested in this upcoming cold spell, and hope it relents sooner rather than later.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
The Beast from the East
06 December 2022 10:37:48

Might be wrong, but looks bone dry for most to me right into next week, which is too far off for specifics anyway 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


See Neil's post 
After thursday the air will be unstable enough for ppn to develop, not much of course but some surprise snow for some
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
06 December 2022 10:39:17

It's getting silly now - at 180 onwards GFS 06Z has energy stalling and disrupting SE under a freezing ESE flow. Snow incoming from the SW. And heights strengthening again across Griceland to keep the mean flow easterly into late next week.
Experience would dictate there has to be a moderation of sorts before this gets into the 120hr range, especially with the sub tropical uncertainties, but maybe just for once this is the real deal and what a shock it's going to be.
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



I dont like the look of that  shortwave developing to north of Shetland. Could well be more which scupper any blocking
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Ally Pally Snowman
06 December 2022 10:40:36
Well the 6z GFS ramps up the cold again. Extraordinary output this morning.  As for pp . The old cliche get the cold in and the snow will come. 
We are in the game anyway.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
06 December 2022 10:41:29
Control so far. looks like a cleaner flow 
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=120&mode=0&carte=0 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
06 December 2022 10:51:37

Totally agree Matty.Bone dry and bone chillingly cold.Doesn't float my boat at all, particularly this year.A bitterly cold bone dry spell is not only pointless, but also, will cause a lot of issues for hard pressed people financially.Currently, personally, I'm not remotely interested in this upcoming cold spell, and hope it relents sooner rather than later.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Have people been looking at different charts from me? A Channel low with a foot of snow across the south (as shown on the 00Z GFS and not too dissimlar on the ECM) is not "bone dry" in my book. Totally mystified by some of the comments on here.... except I'm not really because every single snowy spell in the 20-odd years I have been posting here has been preceded by people saying how it will be bone dry.

If this is "bone dry" then I will take as many bone dry winter charts as you are offering.
UserPostedImage

(And yes I know the 6Z has it a bit further south and the snow hits France instead)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
06 December 2022 10:54:00

Have people been looking at different charts from me? A Channel low with a foot of snow across the south (as shown on the 00Z GFS and not too dissimlar on the ECM) is not "bone dry" in my book. Totally mystified by some of the comments on here.... except I'm not really because every single snowy spell in the 20-odd years I have been posting here has been preceded by people saying how it will be bone dry.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yes Rob, looking at the actual synoptic chart suggests there should be loads of snow, but the precipitation charts are bone dry, apart from around the extreme south west.​​​​​​​The precipitation chart also shows 32cm of snow, which is completely gone 6 hours later, so I am very dubious about this particular 6z run.  
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Whiteout
06 December 2022 11:01:05
IMBY alert - 39 cms of snow on Dartmoor on this run - BANK 😁🤩
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Jiries
06 December 2022 11:03:34

Yes Rob, looking at the actual synoptic chart suggests there should be loads of snow, but the precipitation charts are bone dry, apart from around the extreme south west.The precipitation chart also shows 32cm of snow, which is completely gone 6 hours later, so I am very dubious about this particular 6z run.  

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



what the reason i want to see lot of a snow this week and weekend not the following week that might not happen at all.  Cold arrive tom the dry for a week follow by a slider that might come or not so end up snoeless. Rather get done this Thursday and other days before the slider low is what I wanted.
 
moomin75
06 December 2022 11:04:20

IMBY alert - 39 cms of snow on Dartmoor on this run - BANK 😁🤩

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

At 246 hours it shows that, then 3 hours later at 249 hours, it's completely gone.Must be an enormous warm up for such a rapid thaw.One for the bin I think, as there is no way in the world, even if it suddenly warmed up to 40c that you'd lose 39cm of snow in 3 hours. 😂😂😂  
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Whiteout
06 December 2022 11:07:17

At 246 hours it shows that, then 3 hours later at 249 hours, it's completely gone.Must be an enormous warm up for such a rapid thaw.One for the bin I think, as there is no way in the world, even if it suddenly warmed up to 40c that you'd lose 39cm of snow in 3 hours. 😂😂😂  

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



lol - having 39cms of snow for 3 hours would be fine 🤣
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Rob K
06 December 2022 11:19:37
WRF has quite a decent chunk of snow for the Midlands on Thursday night/Friday morning on the 00Z run. Seems not to be there on the 6Z though.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
06 December 2022 11:30:43
There now appears to be a large (and increasing) number of runs on the 6z GEFS pushing the milder air through quickly.

This is FAR from resolved.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Arbroath 1320
06 December 2022 11:30:46
The GFS 06z OP & Control run keep us cold and blocked at least out to 222t, which is getting well into FI in this set up. 

Having said that, a quick look at the ENS shows a bit of a shift, with ~60% going for a breakdown to less cold/mild at that point in time. Needs watching on the 12zs.

​
GGTTH
Rob K
06 December 2022 11:31:15

At 246 hours it shows that, then 3 hours later at 249 hours, it's completely gone.Must be an enormous warm up for such a rapid thaw.One for the bin I think, as there is no way in the world, even if it suddenly warmed up to 40c that you'd lose 39cm of snow in 3 hours. 😂😂😂  

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I think it's a gridpoint issue. Notice that is the point at which it goes from high res to low res. The gridpoint in north Devon only has 1cm and that then gets reflected in the whole grid square at the next time point.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
06 December 2022 11:33:10

The GFS 06z OP & Control run keep us cold and blocked at least out to 222t, which is getting well into FI in this set up. 

Having said that, a quick look at the ENS shows a bit of a shift, with ~60% going for a breakdown to less cold/mild at that point in time. Needs watching on the 12zs.

​

Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 


By T240 the GEFS mean 850mb temperature is almost unchanged on the 6Z from the 0Z. Maybe half a degree warmer along the south coast.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Russwirral
06 December 2022 11:34:13

Have people been looking at different charts from me? A Channel low with a foot of snow across the south (as shown on the 00Z GFS and not too dissimlar on the ECM) is not "bone dry" in my book. Totally mystified by some of the comments on here.... except I'm not really because every single snowy spell in the 20-odd years I have been posting here has been preceded by people saying how it will be bone dry.

If this is "bone dry" then I will take as many bone dry winter charts as you are offering.
UserPostedImage

(And yes I know the 6Z has it a bit further south and the snow hits France instead)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Over a week from now, and this is looking pretty dry to me for total precip for the UK - crazy to think this is a December chart.

UserPostedImage

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Downpour
06 December 2022 11:35:08

IMBY alert - 39 cms of snow on Dartmoor on this run - BANK 😁🤩

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 



Nowt wrong with that - 'IMBY' is a trite cliche because all weather is local. The simple truth is that all will be looking at snow prospects in their regions (and very few examining prospects for the white stuff on the top of Cairngorm or the northeast face of Rockall).

I agree with both Matty and Kieron that we are facing a bone dry, non-event for 90+% of the UK population, which I forecast days ago and was flamed for by one or two on here...

I hope I am proved completely wrong. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
The Beast from the East
06 December 2022 11:38:58
Control is another Feb 91 
One of Darrens fabled  deep cold mid winter easterlies at last
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0 

 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
06 December 2022 11:46:43
Regarding the disappearing snow depth anomaly, I think it is just a gridpoint problem on the TWO chart viewer. The Meteociel snow depth chart shows the Dartmoor snow still there at T300. https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022120606/gfs-16-300.png?6 

UserPostedImage

I see the scatter on the GEFS appearing right at the end of high res. Shows that it is likely to be a knife-edge scenario of how far the LP gets to the north. Whatever it does it is very UNLIKELY to be "bone dry" - unless it misses far to the south in which case it would pull in a proper easterly. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Whiteout
06 December 2022 11:55:47

Regarding the disappearing snow depth anomaly, I think it is just a gridpoint problem on the TWO chart viewer. The Meteociel snow depth chart shows the Dartmoor snow still there at T300. https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022120606/gfs-16-300.png?6 

UserPostedImage

I see the scatter on the GEFS appearing right at the end of high res. Shows that it is likely to be a knife-edge scenario of how far the LP gets to the north. Whatever it does it is very UNLIKELY to be "bone dry" - unless it misses far to the south in which case it would pull in a proper easterly. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Agree Rob, we either get an Easterly, or the LP makes inroads to either Dartmoor, the Cairngorms or somewhere inbetween, and some lucky folk get a right dump of snow.

Also, look at the Met warning for Wales and the West Midlands, features will pop up for sure.
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
wallaw
06 December 2022 12:09:09
I don't really get the idea that dry equals a none event. 

As a weather enthusiast, one of the weather 'types' that I seem to love and miss in equal measure is clear, cool, crisp winter days. 

If this upcoming period is simply cold then I will always take that in December over endless days of wind and rain and temps of 10-12c.
Ian


Stockton-on-Tees
Rob K
06 December 2022 12:11:47
We are starting to get in range of the high-res models which may be more use than GFS etc. Looking at ARPEGE the 6Z run at 96 hours when compared to yesterday's 12Z run at 114 hours (i.e the same time frame)...

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php 

Quite big differences. A shallower trough over the UK on today's run, and more of an easterly rather than northerly flow, but the Atlantci storm is a bit further northwest. 

PS @wallaw I completely agree about dry and very cold weather. At this time of year you can't beat those properly bone-chilling crisp winter days (unless it's a foot of powedery snow!)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
06 December 2022 12:11:52
Every time cold is forecast a few people say it's going to be dry and then get surprised whe it snows. It is notoriously difficult to forecast and I can remember several falls that cropped up from nowhere. If the cold comes I think the majority will see falling snow, settling is different story. Look out the windows and at the radar and don't look for the end!
moomin75
06 December 2022 12:13:05

I don't really get the idea that dry equals a none event.  As a weather enthusiast, one of the weather 'types' that I seem to love and miss in equal measure is clear, cool, crisp winter days.  If this upcoming period is simply cold then I will always take that in December over endless days of wind and rain and temps of 10-12c.

Originally Posted by: wallaw 

Dry and cold is incredibly boring. ​​​​​​​Mild, wet and windy has a lot more interest, and has the added bonus of keeping heating bills down.​​​​​​​If it going to be cold, it needs to have some interest by way of snow.​​​​​​​I am sure many people think the same.     
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

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