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Rob K
06 December 2022 15:26:40
ARPEGE 12Z has a decent amount of snow by Friday.

UserPostedImage
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
06 December 2022 15:30:05
ICON rolling and the dartboard low is back and angling it's approach less favourable and looks like allowing a SW flow in eventually. This is all in a weeks time so plenty of time to change again but the little switches in the output today are not conducive to longer term continuity.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
nsrobins
06 December 2022 15:33:44

ICON rolling and the dartboard low is back and angling it's approach less favourable and looks like allowing a SW flow in eventually. This is all in a weeks time so plenty of time to change again but the little switches in the output today are not conducive to longer term continuity.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Well sometimes I'm my worst enemy for not taking my advice and waiting for a run to finish. The low on ICON is held up by better heights to the North and starts sliding SE. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
warrenb
06 December 2022 15:36:59

Well sometimes I'm my worst enemy for not taking my advice and waiting for a run to finish. The low on ICON is held up by better heights to the North and starts sliding SE. 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


You should know better than that by now 😁
Tonbridge 45m 
Rob K
06 December 2022 15:39:11

Well sometimes I'm my worst enemy for not taking my advice and waiting for a run to finish. The low on ICON is held up by better heights to the North and starts sliding SE. 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Like me writing off the ECM run at 144 hours yesterday!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
06 December 2022 16:00:06
Potential feature for some snow in the SE at the weekend something to keep a watch on
Rob K
06 December 2022 16:12:36
What do we make of the UKMO run at 144 hours? Slider or cold spell ender?
It certainly has the LP a lot closer to us than the GFS does at the same time.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
06 December 2022 16:17:34

What do we make of the UKMO run at 144 hours? Slider or cold spell ender?
It certainly has the LP a lot closer to us than the GFS does at the same time.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



looks to me like it could continue the cold
moomin75
06 December 2022 16:26:43

looks to me like it could continue the cold

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


But remain bone dry for most.
Honestly, such a waste of synoptics.
I can't understand why we are covered with low pressure and yet it remains completely dry.
Totally baffled by that.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
ballamar
06 December 2022 16:27:43

But remain bone dry for most.
Honestly, such a waste of synoptics.
I can't understand why we are covered with low pressure and yet it remains completely dry.
Totally baffled by that.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



I am baffled by your insistence it will be bone dry
+2
Martybhoy
06 December 2022 16:28:02
Ice day IMBY! 🥶
200m above sea level
Rural East Ayrshire
Near to the village of Sorn
Rob K
06 December 2022 16:34:37
GFS 12Z takes a different route. No quick breakdown from the SW but the low stays out in the Atlanctic and seems to be killing the Greenland high. Can northern blocking reform?

Edit: meanwhile GEM is a cracker with snow for everyone, more or less.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Arbroath 1320
06 December 2022 16:47:27
Becoming clear over recent runs that the models haven't got a clue on the track of the LP to our SW next week. The output is all over the place. 

Might be a good few days before the this is resolved. 
GGTTH
Brian Gaze
06 December 2022 16:50:24
Met Office Global T+168 is a heartbreaker for snow fans in the south.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
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Rob K
06 December 2022 17:11:43

Met Office Global T+168 is a heartbreaker for snow fans in the south.

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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Woyuldn't need much adjustment.

UserPostedImage
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Beast from the East
06 December 2022 17:14:19
Control better than the op for a longer spell
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
06 December 2022 17:19:04
Short GEFS out and sliughtly fewer mild runs than the 6Z.

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Interesting how both op and control have been right at the bottom of the pack for the last two runs.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
White Meadows
06 December 2022 17:23:43
Starting to look like a 'cold breakdown' away from very cold is more likely than a mild and wet one. 
who knows where it goes from there but another easterly of sorts cannot be ruled out. 
dagspot
06 December 2022 17:31:35
these snow risk maps look slightly 'meh'
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/snow-risk 
Neilston 600ft ASL
Gandalf The White
06 December 2022 17:37:15

Met Office Global T+168 is a heartbreaker for snow fans in the south.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Possibly, but there's a lot of snow on the ground on Friday morning, in a broad swathe from Kent west and WNW across in Wales. As much as 10cm on hills and double that on the mountains of South Wales.

In these situations a minuscule change, in global model terms, could dump a memorable snowfall across the south, produce heavy rain up into the Midlands or leave us completely dry.  
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
06 December 2022 17:42:39

Possibly, but there's a lot of snow on the ground on Friday morning, in a broad swathe from Kent west and WNW across in Wales. As much as 10cm on hills and double that on the mountains of South Wales.

In these situations a minuscule change, in global model terms, could dump a memorable snowfall across the south, produce heavy rain up into the Midlands or leave us completely dry.  

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



And we will not know for days which if any of these scenarios is most likely.

Still cold and then messy in the medium term as a general summary. The specific details will probably only become apparent at about a day or so out. 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
nsrobins
06 December 2022 17:52:12
Not sure how useful the GEFS mean is just now with such a huge spread longer term, but in isolation the mean at 240 has better heights up north than the 06Z offering.
A cold and frosty period a given, with some snow in favoured spots, but I suspect the majority will be looking into next week and wondering if the pieces of the puzzle will slot together to deliver what they crave. As it stands, I don't think anyone can say with any confidence.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Rob K
06 December 2022 18:21:54
The ingredients are certainly there for a memorable blizzard somewhere, but that could be anywhere from France to the Atlantic miles to our NW. 

Edit: ECM looks like bringing the mild air up from the south pretty rapidly. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Surrey John
06 December 2022 18:34:03
Just been looking at the Met office fax charts

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/surface-pressure 

And whilst there are no obvious fronts over the country as you click through the time frames, there are some strange kinks in the isobars which suggests some weak features,  disturbances.   But too small to show on charts that are covering an area 2000+ miles wide.   They will only show up on high resolution.

Therefore I can't see it being totally dry, actually I will go further, with the ripples in the pressure line will get some white stuff falling, not just a token icing sugar style dusting.

 
Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
Hippydave
06 December 2022 18:35:04
Crunch point on the ECM op -> T144 has the LP a touch further North and milder air encroaching in to the SW. It still has the little daughter LP so need that to skirt east and the main LP to rebound in the Atlantic or this op run will possibly be a bit of a party pooper.

Edit: currently it's pooping at T168!
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge

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