theweatheroutlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 December 2022 07:42:56

Tomorrow's snow event looks like nothing now, very fragmented precipitation,  disappointing end to the cold spell.  

Originally Posted by: Tim A 



There speaks a man who doesn't have to drive to London tomorrow
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
marting
17 December 2022 07:53:45
Signs of a cool down again by Christmas , fairly strong signal in both the gfs and ECM ensembles this morning. All about the trough moving across us and mid Atlantic block, which is a signal indicated for several days. ECM have -5 as average across most of us Christmas Day.
martin
Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
doctormog
17 December 2022 07:57:23

The pattern on the 00z GFS ensemble data for next week is interesting. This chart for here  hints at the proximity of cold to the north. Small changes in synoptics could have massive impacts in our weather over Christmas. It could still turn out either wintry or very mild for many people.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



The ECM 00z show a similar pattern, with op run well outside the confidence limits in the latter part of the run and a significant spread over southern parts showing a range of options on the table clearly. 

UserPostedImage
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gandalf The White
17 December 2022 08:03:35

Dull prospects for coldies continues this morning. 'All opinions off the table' speaks the same as 'no options on the table'. 
Heights non existent over Greenland and high pressure coming home to roost over Central Europe in its default position. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Well, it’s just as well I decided to zip through the model output before checking the comments here. What I see is a complex picture with a clear trend away from milder options. 

In the reliable timeframe it’s about the same message as my last post: mild Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday then unclear but now quite clearly trending colder next weekend.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 December 2022 08:24:42
WX temp charts in week 1 show the 0C isotherm fragmenting and withdrawing to E Europe. In week 2 it's still thereabouts but the area to E & N of it is getting colder again. Germany and Britain cool  down after a milder week 1; France and Spain mild throughout. Pptn shown  for Atlantic coastal countries, heaviest in week 1, also a minor patch in S Russia.

Jet  stream operating in fits and starts, something more organised across England for Chriatmas Day; after that signs of a much more S-ly jet developing across N Africa. The extreme cold LP in New England recently (see Extreme Weather thread) doesn't appear to have influenced the jet.

GFS Op shows a general pattern of LPs moving NE-wards close to/over Scotland and merging with LP N of Norway ( 965mb off NI Tue 20th, 990 mb Central Belt Scotland Sat 24th, 980mb Rockall Tue 27th) . Mostly SW-lies as they approach, N-lies as they leave, the N-lies affecting Scotland more than S England. Brief HP New Year's Eve sinking S and introducing a W-ly spell.

ECM similar to GFS though the LP 27th is more of an elongated N-S trough than localised over Rockall.

GEFS in the S mild (Mon 19th and Fri 23rd) and cool by turns with heavy rain associated with the mild spells. After Christmas Day (most ens members dry, normal temps) there is little agreement - probably drier, perhaps a cooler few days, op run on its own, really cold Fri 30th. In the N, the first mild spell is most marked, and dry, but after that increasingly cold to Mon 26th with pptn (good chance of snow) on Christmas Eve.  The op there also has a very cold loop.  N England more like Scotland  than S England but not as cold.

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
nsrobins
17 December 2022 08:28:28
There are some errant operational options on the table this morning, but on the basis of todays data I’d say the chances of a robust return of nationwide below average temps have receded. There’s been some impressive minima during the spell, but apart from some rain last Sunday afternoon zero precipitation.
It’ll go down as a ‘nice pre-Christmas’ seasonal chill here, although I know for others have it’s been more memorable (OT).
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
Lionel Hutz
17 December 2022 08:42:26
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=london 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=dublin&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM) 

Interesting spread in the GFS ensembles between Dublin and London(and presumably relevant to other locations North and West of London. Considerably colder in Dublin post Christmas than London. Not sure if this is a trend or not. However, it does show the possibility of colder conditions for some parts at least. 





 
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Heavy Weather 2013
17 December 2022 08:49:05

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=london 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=dublin&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM) 

Interesting spread in the GFS ensembles between Dublin and London(and presumably relevant to other locations North and West of London. Considerably colder in Dublin post Christmas than London. Not sure if this is a trend or not. However, it does show the possibility of colder conditions for some parts at least. 





 

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 



Perhaps I’m clutching at straws but I’ll be hoping that things correct southwards as we often see. I think right now, some festive cold during the key Christmas Eve/Christmas Day/Boxing day period would be a delight for many.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Rob K
17 December 2022 09:11:52
Ensembles for Scotland show pretty solid agreement for a decent cold plunge over Christmas and plenty of snow. A messy picture further south with the possibility of low pressure tracking across the middle of the country on Xmas day, the exactly track of which will make a big difference to the festive weather!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Gandalf The White
17 December 2022 09:15:48

There are some errant operational options on the table this morning, but on the basis of todays data I’d say the chances of a robust return of nationwide below average temps have receded. There’s been some impressive minima during the spell, but apart from some rain last Sunday afternoon zero precipitation.
It’ll go down as a ‘nice pre-Christmas’ seasonal chill here, although I know for others have it’s been more memorable (OT).
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Yes, if your benchmark is evidence of ‘a robust return nationwide’ then that’s pretty much right. But I think equally there’s no ‘robust’ signal for any particular pattern just now; it all looks very messy and unclear, but into next weekend trending cooler, maybe colder.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Jiries
17 December 2022 09:40:07

Perhaps I’m clutching at straws but I’ll be hoping that things correct southwards as we often see. I think right now, some festive cold during the key Christmas Eve/Christmas Day/Boxing day period would be a delight for many.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



It will have to correct south or north ward fully, not possible for UK a small landmass to have forever dividing line, only happened in the larger continent areas.  See the USA map how from very cold north to warm south in a 3000miles landmass all winter long.  So for here will be all out mild or cold everywhere.
Lionel Hutz
17 December 2022 09:49:40

Perhaps I’m clutching at straws but I’ll be hoping that things correct southwards as we often see. I think right now, some festive cold during the key Christmas Eve/Christmas Day/Boxing day period would be a delight for many.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



Yes, hopefully. However, I do think that the Dublin ensembles show that things are still finely balanced and there will almost certainly be corrections,  hopefully good ones!
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Chunky Pea
17 December 2022 09:58:02

Yes, if your benchmark is evidence of ‘a robust return nationwide’ then that’s pretty much right. But I think equally there’s no ‘robust’ signal for any particular pattern just now; it all looks very messy and unclear, but into next weekend trending cooler, maybe colder.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



All very messy, but the little we can get to fathom from all the noise is that no real set in mildness is on offer over the next 10 days, and really anything from a major Arctic outbreak to just chilly, benign conditions are on the table at this point: (Christmas Day forecast chart)

UserPostedImage
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Surrey John
17 December 2022 10:13:13
Very messy charts and no consistency 

Nothing to show warm weather
Milder (and wet) interludes from South West and West
Colder incursions from North

Rather a battleground that will change every day or two, but clearly the further north you are, the higher the proportion of colder days exceeding the milder wet days

If start cherry picking charts from multiple models, can illustrate any of the above, but only one won’t find is warm/hot weather, milder couple of days at best.
 
Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
Gusty
17 December 2022 10:24:58
I think this mean chart from the 0z GFS at 144 hours tells the story fairly well.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&time=144&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Joe Bloggs
17 December 2022 10:26:16
Not much change from yesterday. 

Still looking very messy with the increasing risk of colder weather for Scotland in particular as we head towards Christmas. Less so further south. 

Theres no point analysing the ECM into FI as it’s so out of kilter with the ensemble set, so will wait for the 12z.

MetO T+168 shows up the snow risk I talked about yesterday for central parts, it even picks up on lying snow for quite a widespread area of Ireland.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPEU00_168_1.png 

The MOGREPS postage stamps for Christmas Eve are quite interesting. The vast majority are pretty mild for the south but much colder as you head further north. 

UserPostedImage
Christmas weekend won’t be nailed for a few days yet. 

 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
17 December 2022 10:39:05
Christmas period looking very cold and snowy for Scotland wouldn't take much for it to come just few hundred miles south.

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
fairweather
17 December 2022 10:39:44
Looks like Boxing Day will be the crunch day, as it often is in determining the start of the New Year. A clear 50/50 split mild/cold on the GFS 850 ensembles.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
moomin75
17 December 2022 10:54:14

Christmas period looking very cold and snowy for Scotland wouldn't take much for it to come just few hundred miles south.  

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

These patterns usually correct south, but guaranteed it won't this time.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Downpour
17 December 2022 11:08:30
I think the reality is that the output looks drab and forgettably mild for the populous areas of southern Britain in the reliable. “Uncertainty” is often a hidden synonym for “likely mild” on weather forums.

Better news for the Scottish skiing industry though, so not all bad. 

And it’s been a wonderful cold spell here and for many in the SE. Lots of snow still lying here a week after a huge fall. Can’t be too greedy.
 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Gandalf The White
17 December 2022 11:19:36

I think the reality is that the output looks drab and forgettably mild for the populous areas of southern Britain in the reliable. “Uncertainty” is often a hidden synonym for “likely mild” on weather forums.

Better news for Scottish skiing industry though, so not all bad. 

And it’s been a wonderful cold spell here and for many in the SE. Lots of snow still lying here a week after a huge fall. Can’t be too greedy.
 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



For the Cambridge area in a week from now the MOGREPS postage stamps show: 6 cold (including the control), 8 around average and 5 mild.  Cold being 5c or lower, mild being 10c+

If you’re talking about London and south of the infamous M4 corridor then there are just 3 cold options and rather more mild ones.  But surely the message from that is how finely balanced it is?  

If you pull back from the minutiae and think about what the computer models are trying to resolve here, what we have are two very large, contrasting air masses swirling around with much of the UK currently being modelled to sit in that complicated, moving boundary.  

If you think you can detect to within 200-300 miles where these air masses will lie in a week’s time then you have a rare talent.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+3
Jiries
17 December 2022 11:22:59

Christmas period looking very cold and snowy for Scotland wouldn't take much for it to come just few hundred miles south.

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Those useless 100% on models cannot work out to move LP or HP freely as Earth rotates but go back to the past newspapers, Ceefax and TV forecasts would simply say it move down to the south anyway after entering Scotland.  No way it can't be stuck forever in same place for a very small landmass.  
Newspapers : Snow moving in Scotland and rain in the south, this will move down and turning to snow while clearer weather in Scotland.
Ceefax ;  Green rain England, white snow Scotland, next page white England and blue or yellow Scotland for clearer weather.
TV forecast.  Snow and rain sysbol change over.
Models on 21st Centrey - Crap and cannot work out at all so they decided to stick the LP in same place even with Earth rotates it should move to other country.  Window watching the way to go sadly as there no other source to know what will happen.
+1
Heavy Weather 2013
17 December 2022 11:28:30
I know it’s continental USA - but they do get some fun over there, always feels very effortless

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNA06_192_2.png

 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Downpour
17 December 2022 11:33:24

For the Cambridge area in a week from now the MOGREPS postage stamps show: 6 cold (including the control), 8 around average and 5 mild.  Cold being 5c or lower, mild being 10c+

If you’re talking about London and south of the infamous M4 corridor then there are just 3 cold options and rather more mild ones.  But surely the message from that is how finely balanced it is?  

If you pull back from the minutiae and think about what the computer models are trying to resolve here, what we have are two very large, contrasting air masses swirling around with much of the UK currently being modelled to sit in that complicated, moving boundary.  

If you think you can detect to within 200-300 miles where these air masses will lie in a week’s time then you have a rare talent.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



I’m looking at a much bigger area than that. South of say the river Tees it’s looking mild and largely forgettable to my eye. Things could shift as next weekend is a fair time away. But I’d say mild for the vast majority of the UK population is very much the form horse. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft

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