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HFC1875
17 December 2022 16:57:28

For more northern parts the trend is similar on the 06z GEFS ensemble data to the previous set https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=6&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25&runpara=0&type=6&ext=1 

So, potentially wintry over the Christmas period.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



The potential for a cold spell in most of Scotland has been there for a while now and those ensembles show a good amount of agreement.

What’s interesting just now for us in the central belt is that we are virtually on the line of the -5 uppers at times and could see some significant snow or could just see some significant rubbish 😂😂😂.

Think once you get North of Perth you’re probably likely to be the right side of the line as it were.
fairweather
17 December 2022 16:59:35

I think the reality is that the output looks drab and forgettably mild for the populous areas of southern Britain in the reliable. “Uncertainty” is often a hidden synonym for “likely mild” on weather forums.

Better news for the Scottish skiing industry though, so not all bad. 

And it’s been a wonderful cold spell here and for many in the SE. Lots of snow still lying here a week after a huge fall. Can’t be too greedy.
 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 


Agreed all round. This spell has been remarkable here, nobody predicted the extent of the cold or the amount of snow and it shows everything can always change a week or so down the line, which is of course now after Christmas, for England, at least.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
moomin75
17 December 2022 17:00:29
Well, personally, I've given up all hope of anything wintry this side of 2023 for anywhere away from hilly regions of Scotland. Mild, wet, windy and mucky sums up the rest of this year for the vast majority. Hopefully more interesting charts crop up for the beginning of 2023. 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
17 December 2022 17:17:14
So nothing wintry for Aberdeen, Dundee, Inverness, Wick, Thurso, the Northern Isles etc? I guess you think the charts showing otherwise will change?
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+2
sandman
17 December 2022 17:31:19
Where’s Gary Sarre when you need him? 
Sandy
Newark Notts
+1
Gusty
17 December 2022 17:37:50
GFS 12z gives Southern Britain a +100mm month should it verify. Very wet for the next fortnight.
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
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nsrobins
17 December 2022 17:47:49

Where’s Gary Sarre when you need him? 

Originally Posted by: sandman 


He’ll be back one day - I’m very confident!

With those heights persisting across Iberia into N Africa there’s no chance of sustained nationwide anomalously cold weather (nationwide as in all the country including Scotland etc)
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
moomin75
17 December 2022 18:03:18

Where’s Gary Sarre when you need him?

Originally Posted by: sandman 

He's still going strong and posting on his own FB page about snow.Definitely miss him in here though, and I also miss Steve Murr and Codge.​​​​​​​They were the real characters of TWO.   
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Jiries
17 December 2022 18:10:02

He’ll be back one day - I’m very confident!

With those heights persisting across Iberia into N Africa there’s no chance of sustained nationwide anomalously cold weather (nationwide as in all the country including Scotland etc)

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



I think the models had been useless all the time and always want to put default patterns with height in the south.  Surely now Spain and NW AFrica are supposed to be in winter time with some rain and LP on and off, not summer persisting HP?   Why that HP which always cause problems for the UK sitting there as it used to sit over Azores?  
Jiries
17 December 2022 18:13:11

GFS 12z gives Southern Britain a +100mm month should it verify. Very wet for the next fortnight.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



That the problem with this bone dry cold spell was under LP didn't produce lot of snow instead of 100mm of rain?  That why I calling the models so useless with LP but never deliver widespread snow we badly need it but happy to deliver rain we don't want it.
tallyho_83
17 December 2022 18:18:52

He's still going strong and posting on his own FB page about snow.Definitely miss him in here though, and I also miss Steve Murr and Codge.They were the real characters of TWO.   

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



I Did wonder what happened to Steve Murr and Chunkypea?

I think there is still some interest. This week looks very zonal but what happens beyond 24th is anyones guess. The met office have suggested that colder spells will be more frequent than usual.

Just looking at the 12z ENS suite and shows both Operational and control run go exceptionally mild with uppers at the 850s, however many ENS fo cold and some down to or even below -10c at 850hpa. So there is quite a lot of scatter and it's all to play for.

London 12 Ens

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Narnia
17 December 2022 18:36:22
How do we badly need widespread snow? Are we all ditching the car for husky and sledge?
Zubzero
17 December 2022 18:37:10

GFS 12z gives Southern Britain a +100mm month should it verify. Very wet for the next fortnight.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



Yes could be a massive change In the final third of December, from "Bone Dry" to very wet. 
Brian Gaze
17 December 2022 18:46:06
Stay OT please. This isn't the place to discuss what has happened to X, Y or Z.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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+2
White Meadows
17 December 2022 19:32:42
Looking increasingly like a wet and wild Christmas for all of England and Wales. 
Typically cold spells are slow builders, like the last one was picked up on 10 days out. Nothing to suggest decent cold might grip the UK any time soon. 

Incoming another Christmas Day with rain lashing against the window and featureless skies. 
Jiries
17 December 2022 19:35:31

Yes could be a massive change In the final third of December, from "Bone Dry" to very wet. 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



If further runs push the LP more south as it always does as one chart on NW show snow line just bordering tad north of me here from 06z runs which was from Manchester northward.  With 7 more days to go should have allowance for correction south to give areas that missed out snow a fair chance.  In the meantime I welcome the mild weather of 9-13C days to massive reduce the heating costs until the next cold air at Xmas onward.  
Downpour
17 December 2022 19:47:22

Looking increasingly like a wet and wild Christmas for all of England and Wales. 
Typically cold spells are slow builders, like the last one was picked up on 10 days out. Nothing to suggest decent cold might grip the UK any time soon. 

Incoming another Christmas Day with rain lashing against the window and featureless skies. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Indeed. I fear I will be right but I hope I will be wrong. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Joe Bloggs
17 December 2022 20:07:37
As many others have said, the problem are those heights over Iberia. It’s frustrating as the pattern to our NW is so conducive for UK cold. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_150_1.png 

It’s an interesting setup. Looking mild for the south but much colder for the north - snow risk remains for the boundary zone. Best bet currently is central lowlands of Scotland. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
dagspot
17 December 2022 20:32:11

I Best bet currently is central lowlands of Scotland. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Bring that riiiiight on…. 🤗
Neilston 600ft ASL
+1
Downpour
17 December 2022 20:33:16

As many others have said, the problem are those heights over Iberia. It’s frustrating as the pattern to our NW is so conducive for UK cold. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_150_1.png 

It’s an interesting setup. Looking mild for the south but much colder for the north - snow risk remains for the boundary zone. Best bet currently is central lowlands of Scotland. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



That’s a long way north, sadly.

A small fraction of the UK population. 

Mild and wet for the vast majority, albeit good for Scottish skiing 👍
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Snow Hoper
17 December 2022 20:37:44
There's over a 20C difference on the 27th for Norwich on the ensembles so nothing nailed on just yet.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
doctormog
17 December 2022 20:38:35

As many others have said, the problem are those heights over Iberia. It’s frustrating as the pattern to our NW is so conducive for UK cold. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_150_1.png 

It’s an interesting setup. Looking mild for the south but much colder for the north - snow risk remains for the boundary zone. Best bet currently is central lowlands of Scotland. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Yes that looks good for those parts further south. Too far south for the ski centres of course. 

Overall the ensemble data GEFS and ECM)) are painting a similar picture to the last few runs - Chilly up north and milder down south but lots of uncertainty given the timescale.

 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
17 December 2022 20:59:17

Those useless 100% on models cannot work out to move LP or HP freely as Earth rotates but go back to the past newspapers, Ceefax and TV forecasts would simply say it move down to the south anyway after entering Scotland.  No way it can't be stuck forever in same place for a very small landmass.  
 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



I think you’ve nailed it, jiries 
https://twitter.com/JohnathanSizz 

 
+1
Karl Guille
17 December 2022 22:24:20
A slightly more progressive run with low pressure a little further east across the Atlantic by Xmas Day but this only serves to squeeze the cold uppers right to the far north of Scotland.
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022121718/gfs-1-174.png?18 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Jiries
17 December 2022 22:56:57

A slightly more progressive run with low pressure a little further east across the Atlantic by Xmas Day but this only serves to squeeze the cold uppers right to the far north of Scotland.
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022121718/gfs-1-174.png?18 

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 



If wasn;'t the idiot HP over Spain the -8 to -12C uppers would had been flowing freely over us but instead it avoided us completely including Scotland and go around the loop to Azores islands with approaching 0C uppers.

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